Eagles vs. Cowboys Betting Matchup

The Dallas Cowboys have exorcised one devilish dilemma, winning in December and will look to make it two in a row, trying to find a way to emerge victorious in the postseason. To do so, Dallas will have to trip up Philadelphia for a third consecutive time this season.

The Cowboys swept the regular-season series for the first time since 2005 from the Eagles, and Tony Romo continued his stellar play down the stretch, throwing for 311 yards and two touchdowns. Over his last six games, Romo has thrown for 1,859 yards and 11 scores with just two interceptions.

Philadelphia was thought to be a real threat in the NFC riding a six game winning streak. But as last week pointed out, if the Eagles offense doesn’t keep changing numbers on the scoreboard, they are in trouble. Philly’s defense has become a conundrum, yielding 20 or more points in seven of last nine games, after surrendering that many points just once in their first seven outings.

Andy Reid’s offense has scored only 16 points in two games against Dallas this season, which suggests the Cowboys D is way ahead of Donovan McNabb and the rest of the offense. Philadelphia played tight last week with multiple dropped passes and once again they were too quick to drop the running game (10 carries) after averaging over 28 rush attempts during winning streak. The Eagles are 14-4 ATS in road games revenging a road loss against opponent.

History is on Philadelphia’s side when it comes to the postseason and production. Since 2000, Philadelphia has advanced to the playoffs seven times (6-1 ATS) and won each of its seven opening games.

The last time Dallas won a playoff game, “Independence Day” was the top movie grossing movie back in 1996. The Cowboys defense finished second in the league in points allowed at 15.6 and has better than that in the last nine weeks giving up 13.2. Dallas took full advantage of Nick Cole as he moved from guard to center for injured Jamaal Jackson. Cole will need help in stopping NT Jay Ratliff, which frees up Cowboys inside linebackers in A-gaps for run blitzes.

Bookmaker.com has Dallas one-point heavier favorite than a week ago at four, with total at 45. The Cowboys are 6-2 ATS off a win and Romo will look to exploit Eagles linebackers who have trouble keeping track of tight ends. The Boys are 6-1 UNDER as chalk.

Philadelphia is undersized defensively and must find a way to shed blocks quicker. The offense has to find rhythm expediently, which blends the run with the pass. If these two factors are found, Eagles can pull surprise and improve on 7-0 ATS record as road dogs of 3.5 to 10-points.

Philly is 10-4 ATS in Dallas and they are 7-2-1 UNDER in last 10 playoff games.

Jets vs. Bengals Betting Matchup

All the NFL analysts on television and radio keep saying the same thing don’t read too much into the New York Jets clocking Cincinnati 37-0 last week. The Jets had to win and the Bengals had nothing to play for blah, blah, blah. In theory that makes sense, but is losing by such a horrific score ever a good thing, especially when you have to play the same team again the next week?

The motivation angle works that Cincinnati will be more fired up after being throttled and will be back on home field before adoring fans and bring full playbook as opposed to Cliff Notes version they used last week.

There are a number of troubling signs for Bengals fans despite the dismissal. Cincinnati is 3-4 in its last seven games and has covered the spread just one time. They have scored more than 20 points just twice since November and one of those was 23 against Detroit, not exactly newsworthy. Say what you will about playing possum, but after allowing 257 yards on the ground to the Jets, Cincy is 4-15 ATS after surrendering 200 or more rushing yards last game.

Cincinnati has lost four defensive starters since the Week 3 of the season and they plainly are not as good as they were earlier in the year. Carson Palmer has really only played one outstanding game the second half of the season, when he threw for 293 net yards at San Diego. Granted the focus has been running the ball more, nonetheless the loss of Chris Henry as a player has impacted the passing game tremendously.

The Jets defense ranked No.1 in total defense and Darrelle Revis had a special year at corner. He certainly has the ability to take away the Bengals top receiver, Chad Ochocinco. As Coach Rex Ryan pointed out, New York at least in theory is built for the playoffs. They feature a strong defense with top-rated running game at 172.2 yards per game, led by Thomas Jones and are 12-2 ATS when their defense allows 150 or less net passing yards.

Coach Ryan made no specific reference to quarterback Mark Sanchez and for good reason, since he is realistically their top liability coming into the game. Undoubtedly, offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer will do everything he can to protect his rookie signal, but will have to deal with Cincinnati’s run blitzes on early downs after going totally vanilla a week ago.

Sanchez will be forced to complete slant passes or quick outs against solid Bengals corners Johnathan Joseph and Leon Hall. The Jets traded for Braylon Edwards during the season and it is his time to be a difference-maker. The Flyboys are 6-2 ATS on the road vs. teams with winning home records.

The Bengals, making just their second postseason appearance in 19 years, may not stick around long, unless the running game clicks and Palmer starts completing some passes. Expect Cincinnati to run crossing routes to either free up Ochocinco or create space for other pass-catchers to be a factor. The Bengals offensive line has to bring it and create lanes for Cedric Benson.

Bookmaker.com has Cincinnati favored by 2.5-points with total of 33.5. The Cats are 0-7 ATS as favorites this season and 0-8 ATS vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points a game the last three years. New York is hardly a picture of prosperity with 2-10 ATS record after two straight wins by 10 or more points; however are 8-3 ATS as road dogs catching three or fewer points.

The home team has covered the last four meetings and Cincy is 9-0 UNDER as a home favorite.

College Basketball Weekend Action and Note

I just want to thankk everyone that dropped by the last 10 days, things have been sparce around 3Daily Winners. I had a horrible cold and have not done anything besides work. No betting, no anything. I finally went to the doctor yesterday and got the drugs I needed to finally break this. I running well behind on many things, but should be back to normal by Monday and might even have stuff for the weekend besides the NFC Wild Card games. Again thanks.

The conference action goes into high gear this weekend, this a number of super matchups that immediately will have an impact on league play throughout the country. Saturday will showcase contests from the Big East, Big Ten, ACC, Big 12 and the Mountain West to name a few. On Sunday, after getting a real scare from Cornell, top-ranked Kansas travels to Knoxville for late afternoon matchup with Tennessee. Lines from Bookmaker.com

Saturday, Jan. 9

Connecticut at Georgetown (-5, 132) 12:00E ESPN

The Huskies (11-3, 4-7-1 ATS) are slowly growing as a team. The offense and defense are not quite to coach Jim Calhoun’s standards, however he’s finding more than enough to build on. Early in the season Calhoun was sometimes frustrated by different player’s efforts, that is no longer the case as he is instead more concerned with the execution. Kemba Walker and Stanley Robinson in particular have been playing well and the UConn team shooting percentage has been rising to present 46.5 percent, running the offense more precisely. Connecticut is 15-6 ATS in January the last few years.

Georgetown (11-2, 5-4 ATS) will be among the teams with the least amount of depth in the Big East, with only nine true scholarship players on the roster along with walk-ons. The Hoyas have a solid seven man rotation which can matchup with almost any team they will face in the league. The issue becomes when they incur foul trouble, suffer an injury that could take a player down for a number of games or if poor performance leaves coach John Thompson III seeking other answers. G-Town has been notoriously poor home team the last few seasons and is 9-21 ATS on home court over the last three seasons.

Since 1997, Connecticut is 4-2 SU and ATS at Georgetown with the total also 4-2 Over.

Purdue at Wisconsin (+1.5,125) 1:30E BTN

Among the couple of different Purdue logos’ floating around is a train with the name built into the black and gold logo. This turns out to be a very apt description of the Boilermakers (14-0, 8-6 ATS) basketball team, as they have steamrolled the competition for the most part this campaign. With the shooting eye still not always in focus, coach Matt Painter’s club has focused on two of his staples, defense and rebounding. Purdue players are so attentive to passing angles they clog the passing lanes like rush hour traffic and are ferocious rebounders, which is particularly important against a club like Wisconsin. The Boilers are 4-10 ATS after a spread cover.

In making preseason prognostications it is impossible to know how certain players will react in college, negatively or positively from year to year. Badgers forward Jon Leuer grew 10 inches in high school and the last 12 months his weight and agility have caught up to his size and he now ranks in the Top 10 in the conference in at least a half dozen categories. This helps explain why Wisconsin (12-3, 8-5 ATS) has been so productive with guards Trevon Hughes and Jason Bohannon running the show. The Badgers normally have low turnover figures which should limit Purdue’s scoring chances and Wisky is 25-8 ATS at home versus teams scoring 77 or more points a game.

The Boilermakers have won and covered four straight over Wisconsin including last two in Madison.

Duke at Georgia Tech (+7, 145) 2:00E ESPN

To this point of the season, this is a different Duke team then in the last few seasons under coach Mike Krzyzewski. The Blue Devils (13-1, 9-4 ATS) still have a great deal panache from the perimeter, however this season Brian Zoubek and the other Duke front court players have given them more production in the paint area and they can negate some other strength’s of opponents. This gives Coach K more options against bigger teams instead of having to play small, which has been the case in recent years. The Dukies are a stellar 63-34 ATS in January.

After falling to Florida State in ACC lid-lifter, Georgia Tech (11-3, 6-3 ATS) returns to conference play with three challenging conflicts starting with Duke. Coach Paul Hewitt brought in a sensational freshmen class and has played four of them extensively, often starting three of them. The Yellow Jackets have been buzzing around on defense, holding opponents to sensational 35.9 percent shooting, which has helped them to fast start. Against teams like Duke, Georgia Tech has to put the ball in the basket with greater consistency to improve on 30-14 ATS record home underdog or pick.

Duke is 10-1 and 8-3 ATS at Alexander Memorial Coliseum in last 11 visits.

Kansas State at Missouri (-5,158) 2:00E ESPN2

On the first of December, coach Frank Martin called out his talented squad, after narrowly defeating Fort Hays State, from the lower regions of collegiate basketball. Accepting responsibility, Kansas State players has been bulldozer, knocking down everything in its path, against pretty descent non-conference competition. Big 12 plays commences for K-State (13-1, 7-2 ATS) at a rugged venue in Columbia. Junior guard Jacob Pullen is among the scoring leaders in the conference, but he is receiving plenty of help from the likes Denis Clemente and others. The Wildcats are creating more turnovers than Pillsbury and are 15-3 ATS after leading their last two games by 10 or more points at the half.

The Missouri players could get arrested with all the thefts of the basketball they have had this season. The Tigers (12-3, 5-4 ATS) have had at least 10 steals in 13 different contests thanks to players like Zaire Taylor, Kim English and Keith Ramsey. Their quickness and understanding of coach Mike Anderson pressure defense makes this a dangerous club even if the baseline players are still trying to win jobs. The Tigers are 9-2 ATS at home vs. teams outscoring their opponents by four or more points a game over the last two seasons.

Missouri has mastered Kansas State at home with 10 wins in last 12 attempts, but is only .500 ATS.

UNLV at New Mexico (-4, 145) 4:00E VERSUS

This will be the close of three stern encounters for UNLV (12-3, 9-4 ATS), having lost the last two to USC and BYU. The Rebels go 11 deep and expect coach Lon Kruger to tighten that number down to nine. Though UNLV has played good defense, the beleif is the continual shuffling of players has at times caused offensive stagnation, with players not getting the ball where they can be most effective. Followers of the program see this team improving on offense, if they run patterned plays and get to the free throw lane. The Rebels are just 1-6 ATS in last seven conference clashes.

New Mexico (14-2, 10-5 ATS) has played better than anticipated, and the same five players have started every game. The Lobos have been outstanding in valuing possession of the ball, committing the fewest turnovers in the Mountain West. Point guard Dairese Gary has a ridiculous 5-to-1 assist/turnover margin and JC transfer Darington Hobson has shown a superb all-around game. New Mexico is 31-12 ATS at The Pit the last three seasons.

The Lobos are 6-3 and 3-5-1 ATS hosting UNLV since 2001.

West Virginia at Notre Dame (+5, 147) 8:00E ESPNU

Notre Dame (13-3, 5-4-1 ATS) plays mostly zone defensive trying to hide defensive deficiencies and for the most part does a pretty solid job in holding opposing teams to 70.7 points per game. West Virginia (12-1, 5-7 ATS) recently had 26 consecutive game streak snapped scoring 70 or more points, however is 49-1 SU under coach Bob Huggins when shooting a higher field-goal percentage than its opponent. Despite incredible depth, the Mountaineers have a lot of walking wounded and would prefer to stay away from shootout with the Irish since they are 0-9 ATS when they allow 75 to 80 points in a game.

Everyone knows the Notre Dame basketball team does their best work at home and this is their chance to at least grab a little national attention, tying to upset West Virginia. Notre Dame has worked to piece together a representative club for league play and would be near the bottom of the Big East without seniors Luke Harangody and Tory Jackson, the stalwarts of the program. Coach Mike Brey will need tremendous performances from this dynamic duo, with the role players stepping up. It about shooting for Notre Dame, who is 13-0 ATS when they make 47 to 53 percent of shot attempts.

West Virginia is 0-8 and 3-5 ATS at South Bend the last 13 years.

Sunday, Jan. 10

Kansas at Tennessee (+6,151) 4:30E CBS

To date Kansas (14-0, 6-5 ATS) has been right on schedule as the nation’s best team, and the schedule had failed to bring the necessary tests to assure the Jayhawks are cohesive on both ends of the floor for 40 minutes, until Cornell contest. Kansas may be 23-8 ATS playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons, but playing in Knoxville with its fans is a demanding task. The emergence of Xavier Henry has overshadowed the personal problems Cole Aldrich has been dealing with family matters. This is precisely the kind of contest vets like Aldrich and guard Sherron Collins have to shine.

The Volunteers (11-2, 5-5 ATS) are 19-5 ATS as a home underdog or pick and master motivator Bruce Pearl will have his squad geeked. He’ll have to with four suspended players, including All-SEC performer Tyler Smith. The four were arrested on drug and weapons charges following a traffic stop after their 66-59 victory over the Tigers on New Year’s Eve. Tennessee has not been knocking down long distance shoots with any regularity (33.7) and it’s hard to imagine they clip Kansas without the three-ball swishing thru the nets. Pearl will look to Wayne Chism, J.P. Prince, and Scotty Hopson to pick up the scoring slack for suspended players and hope Renaldo Woolridge can fill is admirably for Smith.

Top notch test for both teams, with Kansas 17-3 ATS vs. good defensive teams allowing 42 percent or less since last year.

GMAC Bowl Preview

Quick, without looking it up, name the four bowl matchups that pitted two conference champions against one another. If you guessed Rose, Fiesta, BCS and the GMAC, advance to next page to collect your prize. (Sorry not really) Actually this bowl is full of surprises, some good and some not so good.

The GMAC Bowl has produced the most lopsided games of any bowls in recent years, as favorites are on an incredible 7-0 SU and ATS run, winning by an average margin of 30.3 points per game, despite what looked like occasionally fairly competitive games.

MAC champion Central Michigan (11-2, 8-3-1 ATS) hopes that trend continues as the favorite. The 2009 Chippewas were dominant as evidenced by the 33.2-to-17.2 scoring differential. CMU is led by Dan LeFevour, the greatest player in MAC history. Find that last statement too strong, not when you consider these numbers - 12,510 passing career yards, 101 passing touchdowns, running for almost 3,000 yards (2,936) and personally crossing the goal line 46 times. Most importantly, Central Michigan has won the league title in three of the four seasons LeFevour has been on the Mt. Pleasant campus. How important was he to the program, in the prior seven seasons the Chippewas were 26-51.

Like CMU, Troy (Sun Belt champion) won their conference for the third time in four years and comes in with a 9-3 SU and 8-4 ATS mark. The Trojans quarterback fortunes changed for the better last year, when transfer Levi Brown was called upon due to injury and ineffectiveness of the two signal callers ahead of him and all he has done is lead Troy to back to back outright conference crowns.

At first glance, Central Michigan falling from a four-point favorite to 2.5 at Sportsbook.com doesn’t seem to hold water. Among Troy’s losses is one at Bowling Green 31-14 in the season opener, whom the Chippewas whipped 24-10 as nine-point road favorites later in the season. By the same token can any MAC team be taken seriously in a bowl game having lost all nine matchups the last two years (0-8-1 ATS)? In search of a positive, when the MAC faces another non-BCS conference in a bowl game, the favorite is 13-1-1 ATS.

Central Michigan players are dealing with a coach leaving as Butch Jones continues taking Brian Kelly leftovers (Kelly was at CMU) and moved on to Cincinnati. That leaves Steve Stripling as the interim head coach and lame ducks are 1-2 this bowl season (though Florida State situation was different). Don’t look for this to be a big deal, as this senior class went thru this as freshmen and they are moving on themselves and are going to be more interested in winning than worrying about a coach leaving. The Chips are 6-0 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons, winning by more than 10 points per game.

The Troy defensive front seven is going to have to be effective in containing LeFevour since its secondary is below average. The Trojans are athletic enough with DE Cameron Sheffield and LB Boris (where’s Natasha?) Lee to keep CMU quarterback from roaming around. Brown will have to outplay LeFevour and he should have time to pass since Central Michigan doesn’t generate much of pass rush. Troy often feeds on momentum and is 8-0 ATS after gaining 450 or more total yards in two consecutive games.

The Trojans have played in three prior bowl games with 1-2 SU and ATS, including 3-0 going OVER the total. CMU is 1-4 all-time as a bowler and is 2-1 ATS.

With the total at 63 consider this, Troy is 9-1 OVER as an underdog and Central Michigan is 6-0 UNDER away from home after one or more consecutive straight up wins this season. ESPN has the coverage starting at 7 Eastern.

3DW Line – Central Michigan by 7

A Nice Pair of College Hoops Matchups

Two games really stand out in college basketball this Wednesday, one a conference matchup between Top 25 teams and the other a sharp non-conference clash which is a measuring stick for both combatants. Wisconsin has emerged as a possible surprise player in the Big Ten and travels to Michigan State. It seems to happen every year, if Syracuse gets off to a fast start, sometime in January they hit a slump of not playing well. Off their first loss of the season at home against Pittsburgh 82-72, The Orangemen will look to keep this to an isolated incident, getting ready for Memphis.

Wisconsin at Michigan State 6:30E BTN

It’s not that Tom Izzo has given up preaching defense; he just has more skilled offensive players and has built his team around their strengths. Michigan State (11-3, 4-9 ATS) is averaging 82.4 points per game, powered by guard Kalin Lucas. The Spartans have the athletes to quickly cash in on turnovers, jetting down the floor for easy scores. Michigan State blasted a good Northwestern squad 91-70 on the road as five-point favorites and is giving 5.5-points to Wisconsin according to DiamondSportsbook.com. Sparty is 11-1 ATS roll as a home favorite by 6.5 or less.

At this point it should come as no surprise; Bo Ryan is a great coach for the Badgers. Wisconsin (8-4 ATS) is never given enough credit, since it lacks the type of big time recruits normally associated with Top 25 programs. Instead, Ryan gets the type of players he feels that have the right work ethic and in his view can get better with hard work through their careers in Madison. Trevon Hughes and Jon Leuer are perfect examples of Ryan’s way of thinking, as each has been a big part of Wisconsin’s 12-2 start and lofty ranking this season. The Badgers are well-suited by physical basketball and are 31-14 ATS versus teams who average 40 or more rebounds a game.
Michigan State has won seven straight conference home openers and is 8-2 and 5-5 ATS against Wisky at home.

Memphis at Syracuse 7:00E ESPN2

Coming into the season, Memphis (10-3, 3-5 ATS) didn’t look like they had the size to be a good rebounding team and it was going to be more dependent on guards to fight for a rebounds that were below the rim. This has largely proven to be true, but the 73-72 loss to Massachusetts brought it home, being outrebounded 44-24. In a one-point defeat, losing 21-4 in second chance points was immense. “I had trouble sleeping, because we gave this game away. -said Roburt Sallie. We’ll see what Memphis learned against Syracuse and see if they improve on 41-23 ATS record as a road underdog or pick.

Syracuse (13-1, 7-3 ATS) lost a large amount of talent, played its toughest non-conference schedule in years and has everyone rethinking how good the Orangemen can really be. Iowa State transfer Wes Johnson has been a cyclone for coach Jim Boehiem leading the Orange in just about everything, including unselfishness. Syracuse observers have marveled how willing this team is to share the ball, with guards Scoop Jardine and Andy Rautins each averaging more than five assists per game. With Rick Jackson and Arinze Onuaku fighting for every rebound, the Orange has a definite advantage in this contest. Boehiem’s bunch is at their best when score 75-80 points. (43-23 ATS)

Even with the loss to Pittsburgh, Syracuse is still 12-4 ATS as a home favorite in last 16 tries and is favored by nine-points with total of 146.5. Memphis hasn’t covered the spread since Dec. 9 and they might have difficulty doing so again as their outside shooting in fair at best, which is a big challenge against the Orangemen’s zone defense.

Orange Bowl Preview

This year’s Orange Bowl is so absurdly easy as what to watch for it barely needs to be acknowledged, however when scenarios like this occur, often the some other side of the story ends up what really determines the winner. Georgia Tech’s option offense is a sight to behold, ranking 11th in total offense, at 307 yards per game against teams that only surrendered 156 yards per contest on the ground.

Iowa was a sturdy defensive squad all season, allowing just 15.5 points per game and was ranked 11th in total defense in the country. On the year the Hawkeyes conceded just 3.5 yards per carry and fundamentally squeezed the life out of most offenses, never allowing more than 28 points in single game.

This is where many people has chosen to focus their attention and unquestionably it will be important, especially if it one-sided for their team. Nevertheless, when the Iowa has the ball and how Georgia Tech defends them will be equally as important.

Ricky Stanzi is expected back at quarterback for Iowa, after missing last two and half contests with injury. If you Goggled the term - winning ugly- you would get a Hawkeyes team picture. Stanzi threw just one more touchdown than interception on the season (15 vs. 14), but always seemed to play his best in the final 30 minutes. The Hawkeyes have underrated pass catchers like TE Tony Moeaki and Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, who led team in receptions. If Stanzi can get started, Iowa could move to 6-0 ATS after allowing 17 or fewer points like they did against Minnesota in 12-0 whitewashing.

Georgia Tech’s defense was strictly average against teams that didn’t run the ball well like Iowa; they for the most part held them in check. With the Hawkeyes running backs healed and ready to go, it’s impossible to overlook the fact the Yellow Jackets were gouged for 662 yards on the ground their last two games. Iowa might well come out with short passing attack, to loosen up the linebackers from Georgia Tech, before plowing ahead with the running game to test their mettle. Coach Paul Johnson’s club is 15-6 ATS on a grass field over the last two seasons.

All right, I can tell by the look on your face you are not buying this thought process. You are betting this game on one factor either way. Iowa holds Georgia Tech to 200 or less yards rushing and pulls the upset or the Yellow Jackets wear down the Hawkeyes with the constant thumping of the option and makes them jelly-legged and armed like they’ve been shoveling snow for four hours straight.

Iowa (10-2, 7-4 ATS) has been a sound bowl team, going 7-3 ATS in its last 10 and underdogs are 8-2 ATS in those games. The Hawkeyes are on the receiving end of 5.5-points at Bookmaker.com and have to attack the option. Defensive ends on either side have to work up-field to disrupt, but not getting out of position. The linebackers have to play assignment football and not run to QB Josh Nesbitt, otherwise any of the other speedy backs will go the distance. Iowa is 21-5 ATS versus rushing teams averaging 200 or more rushing yards a game.

Coach Johnson’s team lost twice and when they did they gained 205 and 95 yards on the ground, far below their average. Kirk Ferentz’s team really limited the opponent’s passing in holding them to 60 yards below their average at 165 YPG. Georgia Tech’s passing game always has the element of surprise, which catches opposing teams off guard. Coach Johnson teams are 10-1 ATS vs. defensive teams who give up 17 or less points.

Both schools were superb away from home, with Iowa 4-1 and 5-0 ATS and the Rambling Wreck 6-1 SU and ATS. Underdogs are 5-1 ATS in Orange Bowl’s since 2004.

3DW Line – Georgia Tech by 3

Two Hardwood Televised Tilts

Today on the ESPN family of networks, two of the remaining four unbeaten teams in college basketball will lace’em up in trying to keep their noticeable fast starts intact. Fourth ranked Purdue continues their Big Ten schedule hosting Minnesota, while No. 2 Texas rekindles an old Southwest Conference rivalry with Arkansas.

Texas at Arkansas ESPN2

After defeating a number of notable teams in November and December, highly ranked Texas (13-0, 8-1 ATS) will try to keep the train rolling against Arkansas (7-7, 2-5 ATS). The Longhorns have only had one true road game at Rice, making this their first stop outside of the Lone Star State and a large crowd of Hogs fans is expected at Bud Walton Arena for these former conference rivals. Texas has comfortably lived up to all the preseason accolades and Damion Jones leads a roster of tremendously talented players. This comment might be the best way to describe Texas - "I think if we play to our potential, we can beat everybody we play," coach Rick Barnes said. The Horns are 8-1 ATS after leading their last two games by 10 or more points at the half over the last three seasons.

The start of the Arkansas season has been marred by two distinct aspects, injuries and suspensions. Sophomore guard Rotnei Clarke has been a scoring machine, but has missed time with knee tendinitis. Four players on scholarship have suspended for disciplinary reasons not all have returned to active roster. Coach John Pelphrey squad is going to have to shoot lights out just to compete with Texas and the Razorbacks are 8-17 ATS as an underdog in last 25 tries.

Bookmaker.com has Texas as 15.5-point favorite, with total of 149. The Longhorns convert 49.3 percent of their shots this season and Arkansas is 20-38 ATS versus shooting teams making 48 percent or more of their attempts.

Minnesota at Purdue 7:00E ESPN

In case you missed it, what an impressive performance by Purdue (13-0, 7-6 ATS) on New Year’s Day, whipping previously unbeaten West Virginia 77-62. The Boilermakers have been spotty on offense all season, however against the Mountaineers; they were spot on in hitting 50 percent of their shots and proved just how lethal they can be when their entire game comes together. “Once we get things clicking on offense, we’re very dangerous,” Center JaJuan Johnson said. Purdue is 16-4 ATS at home when playing against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons.

Minnesota (11-3, 8-5 ATS) arrives in West Lafayette, riding a seven-game winning streak that includes two conference wins over Penn state and Iowa. The Golden Gophers are led by senior guard Lawrence Westbrook, averaging a team-high 13.8 points. Minnesota will be without the services of center Ralph Sampson III, who is still nursing an ankle that forced him to miss previous game. Coach Tubby Smith is hoping Blake Hoffarber continues his sharp, averaging over 18 points a game during this win streak.

The Gophers are receiving eight points at Mackey Arena and are 8-20 ATS as an underdog over the last three seasons. Purdue has been outstanding in protecting the ball, but like most teams can’t be letter perfect every encounter and are 3-11 ATS after four straight games committing 14 or less turnovers.

Purdue goes for its 500th win at Mackey Arena (499-114) off to its best start in 16 years.

Dual in the Desert of Unbeatens

What is great about Monday night’s Fiesta Bowl is that it makes for fascinating debate. Starting with the winner will be just one of two unbeaten teams in the country when the season is completed Thursday evening, and will likely end up rated second or third in the country, depending on several factors. If one team is dominant in Glendale, AZ they can raise the discussion point wondering how they might have done against Florida or either of the two participants in the BCS championship contest.

In reading, studying and breaking the two teams down, two elements arise, one for each team. TCU is the better team, period. Think about this for a second, if Cincinnati doesn’t execute last minute touchdown drive against Pittsburgh and if the Texas kicker hits the ball one yard further to the left, the Horned Frogs are playing Alabama in a few days.

How good has TCU (12-0, 8-3 ATS) been, they won in Death Valley at Clemson, who almost made Orange Bowl trip and went to BYU and kicked some Cougar tail 38-7, who in turn blitzed Oregon State 44-20 in the Las Vegas Bowl. TCU’s resume is further enhanced by the fact they beat all five bowl participants they played (4-1 ATS) and those same five squads each won their bowl matchup.

Coach Gary Patterson’s team outscored last seven opponents by average of 47-10 and off their 51-10 nailing of New Mexico in late November, are 9-0 ATS after scoring 50 points or more last game. Here’s the rub, they played Boise State in the Poinsettia Bowl last year, beating them 17-16 as three-point favorites, though dominated them in yardage 472-250. Most player quotes coming out of Fort Worth are similar to this, “Yes we are excited to be playing in BCS game against Boise State who is a very good team…….BUT we really would have liked to see how we would matchup against Florida or one of other BCS conferences teams”.

This does not signify that TCU won’t play an outstanding game, but you have to wonder at least a little about a club that is a seven-point favorite, facing a team in revenge mode, who feels they could be overlooked by opponent.

What does Boise State (13-0, 8-4 ATS) have to do to get beyond cute cousin status? Do they need to roll up the Smurf turf and maybe go to black turf instead and maybe change uniforms to more menacing colors to get street cred? What about quarterback Kellen Moore, who has 39 touchdowns and three interceptions, along with 65 percent throwing accuracy, having the nickname –The Assassin.

Alas, Boise isn’t Miami, so no documentary about how this program arose from essentially nothing to a consistent Top 15 performer this past decade. Coach Chris Peterson looks more like the local high school track coach, not somebody who runs one of the top football programs in the country and lacks the Bobby Petrino and Brian Kelly mentality to win for the next better job.

Peterson may look gentlemanly, but coaches like him have the fire burning and the Broncos are 25-8 ATS after scoring 31 points or more in five straight games. Under Peterson, this is Boise State’s third unblemished regular season in the last four years and the school’s fourth in the last six. They won a memorable game three years ago in same location over Oklahoma and the only team to stifle the Oregon Ducks offense as much as Ohio State did in the Rose Bowl was the Broncos in the first game of the year. They held the Ducks to 152 total yards.

DiamondSportsbook.com sees this as a more offensive affair then a year ago, with the total at 53.5 compared to last year’s 46 points in San Diego contest. We’ll keep with our Monday night theme. We’ll provide reasons why either team should cover. In the Fiesta Bowl, when the line is 5.5 or higher, the underdog has emerged the spread winner seven of last nine. In regards to the total, when the number is 51 or higher, the results have been 6-2 UNDER in most recent matchups.

Boise State covers if they can match TCU’s physicality. The offensive line is going to have to provide occasional creases against rugged Horned Frogs front for RB’s Jeremy Avery and Doug Martin. The Broncos only allowed five sacks all season, they are bound to give up a few to DE Jerry Hughes and others from aggressive TCU defense, hopefully they can minimize the damage and Moore can find targets quickly as he has all season. That is why first and second down will be so important for Boise State, trying to stay out of third and longs. The Broncos cannot allow TCU ground game to churn, they must shed blocks and fill gaps, something they did struggle with at different times against better rushing teams. The Broncos are 24-6 ATS versus offensive teams averaging 425 yards a game and have revenge and possible disrespect card to play.

TCU covers if they come to make a statement. Though it is not always easy to tell against a variety of substandard competition, Coach Patterson’s team appears capable of beating ANY team in the country on a given day. If TCU plays with the same purpose they have all season and doesn’t have fascinations about Gators, Longhorns or a team from Tuscaloosa, they win by at least 10 points. Coach Patterson’s crew has speed edge and can be disrupt any offensive. QB Andy Dalton matured into an accurate thrower as a senior (22 touchdowns and five interceptions) and truly does have a stable of running backs to run behind a punishing offensive line that could wear down Boise State. It’s not an accident the Frogs are 13-4 ATS after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in consecutive games.

Bowl System – Play Under in any bowl game, in a non-conference game between two teams from second tier non-BCS conferences. (38-14, ATS L10Y)

Pittsburgh visits the Queen City

The Pittsburgh Panthers drew the dreaded Saturday-Monday Big East slate to begin league play, both on the road. The first part of the process was no problem after upsetting previously undefeated Syracuse 82-72. Now it’s off to the Queen City for the Panthers (12-2, 5-4-2 ATS) who have won five in a row.

Pittsburgh has survived despite having its fewest number of returning starters in years. Brad Wanamaker has emerged as more of a scoring guard than expected and Nasir Robinson has added to the offense. Jermaine Dixon is finally healthy and making solid contributions and Ashton Gibbs has been dropping some three-point bombs.

Even with how good Pitt basketball has been for a number of years, highly-touted freshman Dante Taylor is their first McDonald’s All-American in 21 years. Pittsburgh comes into this game 10-1 ATS after four straight wins by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.

Cincinnati (10-3, 4-4-1 ATS) is a tweener team, they could be better or worse than preseason prognostications or just middle of the pack in the Big East. The potential is there for the Bearcats to be quite good as the backcourt Deonta Vaughn, redshirt freshman Cashmere Wright and true frosh Lance Stephenson could be second only to Villanova. For Cincy to be noticed, they must be unbeaten at home and close to .500 on the road.

The Bearcats have started strong in Big East play with wins over Connecticut and Rutgers and to move up on the next rung of the conference ladder, they must overcome 5-18 ATS record after playing a game as favorite.

DiamondSportsbook.com Cincinnati has 4.5-point favorites, with total of 126. The Bearcats are unsightly 0-10 ATS after playing consecutive games as favorite and 11-2 OVER in home games after three contests allowing a shooting percentage of 40 percent or less. Pittsburgh is well aware of Cincy’s failures vs. better clubs (2-9 ATS against teams with win percentage of 80 percent or higher the last two years) and will have to match their intensity on the road. The Panthers are 10-2 OVER when the total is 129.5 or less over the last three seasons.

ESPN has this telecast for the unofficial start of Big Monday and Pittsburgh has won five of last six encounters against Cincinnati with .500 spread mark.

Top Monday NBA Systems

The first Monday of the New Year in the NBA finds four games on the NBA agenda. All season we have been providing winning information on this day of the week, with our top situation that matches up with each NBA contests. Here is a look at the top systems for today. Numbers from DiamondSportsbook.com.

Atlanta at Miami (+1.5, 195.5)

The Atlanta Hawks have hit their first slump of the season, losing three of four, however, tonight’s opponent and division rival Miami is also carrying three game losing streak. When a situation like this arises, look to play on road favorites after two or more consecutive losses, if they have winning 60-75 percentage on the season. Over the last three seasons, this system checks in at 32-12 ATS.

Oklahoma City at Chicago (-2, 194)

When it comes to three-point shooting, it’s hard to matchup two worst teams than these two. Oklahoma City is 26th (31.7 percent) and Chicago is tick behind at 31.6 percent. Even without this as part of the offensive arsenal, look to Play Over in a game involving two poor three point shooting teams, with the Bulls an average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's) against an average pressure defense like the Thunder (14.5-16.5 TO's). In the last five seasons, this system is solid 82-45 OVER.

New Orleans at Utah (-7.5, 196)

The Hornets don’t have a number of offensive weapons, which is why they rank 19th in scoring at 98 points per game. They travel to Utah off a pair of close home victories over Miami (95-91) and Houston (99-95). It has been best to play against teams like New Orleans who are decent on offense (98-102 points per game) against a defensive team like the Jazz (92-98 PPG), after two straight wins by six points or less. Since 2005, this system is 33-9 ATS, 78.5 percent.

Portland at L.A. Clippers (-4, 189.5)

Any rest in the NBA is looked upon as being good, considering the grueling schedule. This can refresh the legs and help any team player better defense with more energy. In this Western Conference conflict, check out the UNDER, since home teams are 38-18 when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points, after successfully covering the spread in two or more games, playing four or less games in 10 days.

NFL Week 17 Betting Stuff

This is the final week for sports bettors in the NFL to take one last look at a full card before next September. There are meaningful matchups, potentially interesting contests and other games that are about as intriguing as watching “Cougar-Town”. Let’s take one last ride and go through all the relevant betting information for the final week of the NFL season.

Playoff Picture

The NFC playoff teams are set, it just a matter of who plays who. New Orleans is top seed and Philadelphia is second seed if they win at Dallas. However, if the Cowboys win, there are two ways they could end up with second seed, two ways Minnesota could be second seed and one way Arizona could jump from fourth to second seed. For the wild card, Green Bay is presently fifth seed, but with a loss in the desert, probably falls to six seed. The Eagles will be either a second, fifth or sixth seed.

The AFC wild picture is more muddled, just not at the top; Indianapolis and San Diego are essentially off this week and next (more on that in a moment). If New England wins at Houston, they are third seed, but slip to fourth if they lose and Cincinnati wins later Sunday night. If Baltimore and the New York Jets win, they are the last two playoff teams in the AFC, if they lose; suddenly the Rubik’s Cube is easier to figure out. As a public service here is how it works out in the AFC if either the Ravens or Jets falter.

Real Life or Football

Though football can sometimes feel like life or death, here is further proof it is not. Imagine your company is on pace for record year 10 months into your fiscal and the national sales manager decides to take his key sales people off the road for a couple of weeks during the last two months and let less qualified sales staff handle accounts. The national sales manager’s reasoning is that the company already had a very successful year and company strategists have created bonus plans for the first quarter of the next year if it is a record first quarter. Here’s the kicker, the CEO and president agree with NSM. And the Indianapolis Colts are wondering why they’ve been criticized for not going after 16-0 season.

Week 17 Angles

* Teams off exactly three ATS losses are 8-17 ATS the last week of the regular season.( Jacksonville - Seattle)
* Teams off three or more spread losses are 23-7 UNDER in the last week of the regular season. (New Orleans)
* In the last week of the regular season, home favorites of three or fewer points are 18-10 ATS. (Cleveland – Dallas- Arizona)
* In Week 17, home underdogs off an away game are 4-11 ATS. (Detroit- Oakland – Seattle –Note: These same clubs are also 11-21 ATS off a loss which each suffered)
* Teams that have played Over three times or more coming into the final game of the regular season are 6-1 ATS and 6-1 OVER. (N.Y. Giants – Denver)
* Teams that have played Under exactly three straight games are 7-3 OVER to conclude the season. (New Orleans – Dallas)
* Teams that have played Under four or more games in a row are 23-13 OVER in final contest ( San Francisco- Buffalo- Tampa Bay- Atlanta –New England)
* The Indianapolis Colts are 4-14 ATS in regular season finales.
* The New England Patriots are 18-6 ATS in their last regular season game.
* The Oakland Raiders are dismal 5-17 ATS in their final regular season contest.

Killer NFL Systems

*Play On all teams like Philadelphia when the line is +3 to -3, revenging a loss against opponent, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) in the second half of the season. Over the last ten seasons, this system is 27-3 ATS, 90 percent.
*Play On a non-conference home teams like San Diego off SU road win in their final game of the season. In the last nine years this system is 12-4, 75 percent.

Super Duper Trends

*Seattle is 0-8 ATS as an underdog this season, losing by 19.9 points per game.
*Arizona is 8-0 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging seven or more passing yards per attempt over the last two seasons winning by 9.9 points per contest.
*Baltimore is 9-0 ATS playing against a team with a losing record since last season, destroying them by 23 points per game.
*Indianapolis is 7-0 ATS on the road in 2009. (Be careful here, however)
The SU winner of Philadelphia and Dallas is 31-5-1 ATS.

Slippery Slope Situations

*The Green Bay at Arizona contest is one of the three potential matchups for the first week of the playoffs next weekend. Arizona has more to play for since they could move up in seeding; however by game time they will know what they are playing for with Minnesota decision in. In truth, Green Bay could probably care less if they face the Cardinals or Vikings since they are on the road either way. Going into the game, coach Mike McCarthy has to figure its back to the desert and expect vanilla pudding game plans for both squads and a challenging wager any way you want to look at it.

*Cincinnati at New York Jets (See Sunday Night article)

*The Eagles and Cowboys have to give maximum effort with division crown and potentially No. 2 seed on the line. Both teams are playing their best football of the season and with the way New Orleans and Minnesota are struggling, it is not a stretch to surmise the winner of this game could well be the NFC representative for the Super Bowl.

*Bill Belichick has always been intent on winning every game, but the fact remains New England has a home playoff game next week and to get to the Super Bowl they will have to probably defeat San Diego and Indianapolis on the road, thus, which order they would play them has little bearing to them. Houston still has ample motivation, the playoffs are still a possibility, first-ever winning season on the line and creating buzz for next year, plus closing with four-game winning streak, though lamenting 1-5 and 2-4 ATS record in division.

One more day of college gridiron indulgence

All right, you made it this far, one more day of college football pageantry and you get your merit badge for taking in this many bowl games. After today’s group of five, its smooth sailing with individual games the rest of the way starting next week. Today’s five bowl contests take us to an unusual combination of locales throughout the day, starting in Toronto, heading south to Birmingham and Arlington, TX, followed by a trip to Memphis before ending in San Antonio. Kind of a where’s Waldo adventure. It doesn’t matter where they play them, as long as they do, with five more great betting opportunities on the second day of the New Year. Numbers from Bookmaker.com.

International Bowl
South Florida vs. Northern Illinois (+6.5, 50)
Rogers Centre – Toronto
12:00E ESPN2

The first three editions of this bowl north of the border weren’t all that competitive, as the Big East has swept the proceedings, including the last two by an average margin of 20.0 points per game. South Florida (7-5, 4-6 ATS) hopes to extend that streak when it takes on Northern Illinois (7-5, 6-5-1 ATS). The Bulls do not bring positive momentum, having gone both 2-5 SU and ATS in their previous seven outings. Northern Illinois is 7-5 but lost all four of its games (1-2-1 ATS) versus eventual bowl-qualifying teams. In fact, head coach Jerry Kill owns a 0-6 ATS record versus winning teams while with Northern Illinois.

Reason to watch and wager- On history alone South Florida gets the nod over Northern Illinois. The MAC is in the midst of another horrible bowl campaign (0-3, 0-2-1 ATS). The MAC is 1-8 SU against BCS conferences in last nine bowl games, with just two covers. The Bulls will have speed and superior athletes all over the field, but motivation certainly comes into question. Does a Big East team care about playing an average MAC team north of the border, well, that’s an easy answer. If freshman quarterback B.J. Daniels hits a few big plays against NIU, it’s easy to surmise South Florida comes out on top since they are 16-1 ATS when they gain nine or more net passing yards per attempt. For the Huskies it’s about getting to rushing average of 203 yards per game. If Northern Illinois can reach that threshold, they are 6-0 and 4-1 ATS this season.

3DW Line – South Florida by 6

Papajohns.com Bowl
Connecticut vs. South Carolina (-3.5, 51)
Legion Field – Birmingham
2:00E ESPN

Connecticut was the nation’s best spread-covering team in 2009, going 10-2 ATS, including 6-0 ATS as an underdog. Backers of the Huskies will look to go to the well one more time, as UConn is catching points vs. South Carolina. Both teams boast 7-5 records, with the Gamecocks having played one of the toughest schedules in the country. They were 3-5 SU but 5-3 ATS against fellow bowl teams. This is just the fourth time in 2009 Steve Spurrier’s team will have played as favorites. South Carolina is 22-3 and 15-9 ATS as chalk in his tenure, including 1-1 in bowl games. For the Huskies, this is a fourth-ever bowl game and they are 2-1 SU and ATS.

Reason to watch and wager- If you can’t decide which team to wager on in this contest by the time you are reading this, it’s probably best to pass, since half of the 24 games these teams played were determined by seven or less points. South Carolina has to appeal to SEC to get out of horrific November slate that has then sliding each year or find ways to recruit better players. South Carolina has a good defense team (20.4 PPG vs. opps. scoring 28.1) and pedestrian offense averaging 21.7. The lack of a consistent passing game leaves the Gamecocks at 8-20 ATS after passing for 170 yards or less. Connecticut once again performed well in the role of the underdog and averaged a surprising 32.1 points per game this season. If QB Zach Frazier can stay as hot as Papa John’s pizza (rare unpaid product placement) , UConn can rise to 10-2 ATS with two or more weeks of preparation.

3DW Line – Connecticut by 3

Cotton Bowl
Oklahoma State vs. Mississippi (-3, 50)
Cowboys Stadium – Arlington
2:00E FOX

Ole Miss and Oklahoma State last met in the 2004 Cotton Bowl, with quarterback Eli Manning and the Rebels pulling out a 31-28 win in his finale. The Rebels are 8-4 (5-5 ATS) in 2009 and will be putting a seven-game, non-conference ATS winning streak on the line versus the Cowboys. They have also fared well in bowl games with 7-1 SU and 6-1-1 ATS record in their last eight. Oklahoma State has the better record (9-3, 6-5-1 ATS) versus a tougher schedule, yet plays as the underdog. The Cowboys are 0-3-1 ATS all-time as bowl game underdog. The SEC has won and covered five of last six Cotton Bowls.

Reason to watch and wager -The Cotton Bowl is in name only changing venues to Jerry Jones palatial estate. This bowl matches two teams that didn’t live up to August Top 10 rankings. Oklahoma State at least had excuses not having two of its top three offensive stars for most of the season. This is a program in need of a quality win and they are just 9-18 ATS as an underdog. You hate to say it, but it was another Houston Nutt team that didn’t produce with expectations. Jevan Snead wilted under the limelight and was saved in part because of the brilliant play of Dexter McCluster, who carried the offense once November arrived. The Rebels are 30-14 ATS away from home playing against a team with a winning record. Think of this contest as mouthwash, with each team trying cleanse a less than desirable season.

3DW Line – Mississippi by 2

Liberty Bowl
Arkansas vs. East Carolina (-7.5, 59.5)
Liberty Bowl – Memphis
5:30E ESPN

East Carolina captured its second straight C-USA title by beating Houston in the league championship game 38-32. The reward of that accomplishment is another matchup with the SEC. The Pirates lost to Kentucky last season as favorites and in the 2010 edition and will be a good-sized underdog to high-scoring Arkansas. Coach Skip Holtz is 22-10 ATS as underdog and his team finished 6-1 and 5-2 ATS. The Razorbacks (7-5, 7-4 ATS) also played well down the stretch though, going 4-1 SU and ATS in their final five, while scoring 44.8 points per game. They have won just two of their past nine bowl matchups and are below average 3-6 against the spread.

Reason to watch and wager- East Carolina can pull the upset if their offensive and defensive lines can control the line of scrimmage. Coach Holtz learned from his father about the value of having linemen that can move the line of scrimmage either way. The Pirates can steal a victory if they move the chains against an Arkansas defense that yielded over 400 yards and have its talented front four bring consistent pressure QB Ryan Mallett. ECU’s pass defense is vulnerable in conceding 260 yards and without pocket pressure, they fall to 0-7 ATS in last seven non-conference games. Coach Bobby Petrino in an offensive mastermind and puts together great game plans to take advantage of opponent’s weakness. Expect him to do more of the same and hope his defense can make enough negative plays to influence the outcome of the game. The Razorbacks have covered six of last seven against teams with winning records.

3DW Line – Arkansas by 8

Alamo Bowl
Texas Tech vs. Michigan State (+7.5, 59.5)
Alamodome– San Antonio
9:00E ESPN

The Alamo Bowl game has been one of the few lately that Big Ten fans can actually look forward to. Their teams are 8-5 SU and 10-3 ATS since 1995. Big Ten squads showcase a 20-9-1 ATS record in their last 30 bowl games as an underdog of four points or more, which is the case in San Antonio. For this year’s contest, Michigan State (6-6, 4-6-1 ATS) has a poorer record than Texas Tech’s 8-4 mark, yet has the edge in several offensive categories, including pass yards per attempt. The Red Raiders (6-5 ATS) have not covered their last four bowl games and the Big 12 is 4-11 ATS in Alamo Bowl appearances.

Reason to watch and wager- Unfortunately the main story line on the 15th bowl game in three days will have little to do with football. The whole Mike Leach episode will play out over time, but for this contest it creates an opportunity for Michigan State. It would seem some division would occur within the Red Raiders locker room taking away focus. Their offense while incredibly potent is based on timing, which can be affected by long layoff. Texas Tech offense moves a little quicker on the carpet and they are 45-28 ATS in games played on turf. Michigan State has a wretched secondary, surrendering 223 yards or more in eight of the 12 contests. This means they are wholly dependent on squeezing the opposing QB in the pocket. The Spartans were erratic offense, but were much better when they had offensive balance running the ball, which is not a sure thing against a decent Texas Tech defense. Michigan State is 3-7 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points and covered just one contest in the second half of the season. This matchup looks like a Red Raiders rout, it all depends on their state of mind with shocking developments.

3DW Line – Texas Tech by 8

Sugar Bowl Preview

Florida (12-0, 6-6 ATS) had bigger plans, but had to “settle” for a Sugar Bowl date with unbeaten Cincinnati (12-0, 7-5 ATS). With two national titles in three years, Florida’s motivation is questioned after the SEC title game loss. It is the last collegiate game for Tim Tebow, and he surely wants to go out on a high note. The Bearcats mental state is also unknown, having a coaching change. Hopefully the time off helped the Cincy defense recover, as they surrendered 36.5 points per game in its last four contests. It’s an entertaining matchup of Cincinnati’s prolific offense against Gators domineering defense. The Gators boast a 9-2 ATS mark when rested under sabbatical in the making Urban Meyer.

Let’s be honest, their arguably has not been a more meaningless BCS game since the system was put into place. The outcome of this game has zero bearing on what happens this year or next year as Cincinnati has Butch Jones following Brian Kelly again for his next job (Central Michigan was the other) and though the philosophies may be similar, they are different.

The Meyer saga is far different. This is a guy so conflicted internally, that one crisp practice made him feel better. His news conference needed another chair and microphone, as Meyer is walking around with two personalities and he doesn’t know which one to trust. Make no mistake, the recruits Florida has lined up for will be receiving calls from other programs asking them to reconsider since who will really be the coach at Florida not only next year, but in the future for a four year commitment.

As far as the game it, the Bearcats felt they were getting disrespected before the whole Meyer revelation came to fruition, most consider this contest a mortal lock for Gators, wanting to send their coach out to his “leave of absence” feeling much better. Granted, Cincinnati plays in the Big East compared to Florida in the SEC, but the Bearcats see they have 33 wins since 2007 and the Gators 34.

Tony Pike is a cool senior who is calm in the face of adversity (remember his performance against Pittsburgh) and the Cincinnati coaches will be intent on moving Mardy Gilyard around to allow him to make big plays. The Cinny defense wore down in the second half the season and should be refreshed with the time off and has to concentrate on taking away the dive play from Florida offense, as that usually sets the tempo. Cincinnati is 8-1 ATS when playing against team with a 75 percent or higher win percentage over the last three seasons.

The Florida seniors and juniors expected to leave are going to be SO JACKED to send their coach into “sabbatical” they might not need helmets. Defensively, make Pike throw the pigskin quickly, before plays develop to their entirety. This leaves narrower windows for completions and makes Pike less confident. With as focused as Tim Tebow figures to be, the Florida offense might be like an executioner, coldly gaining first down after first down before busting a long play for six. The Gators are 9-1 ATS vs. teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more points per game on the season under Meyer, winning by average 17.3 PPG.

Diamondsportsbook.com has the Gators ready to chomp as 12.5-point favorites, with total of 57.

In life it’s always interesting to wonder - what if? If Texas loses to Nebraska and Florida beats Alabama, they likely are playing for national championship and would any what has happened with the coaches occurred if they were about to face one another.

Here’s a great reason to watch the Sugar Bowl, it might be the end of an era in Gator football. Even if Meyer does return, the casualties will be too heavy to overcome next season. Can he mentally and physically continue to push himself so hard and if he delegates more, will he be satisfied with the results. Stay tuned.

3DW Line – Florida by 9

Rose Bowl Preview

With as much success as the two programs have had recently, it’s hard to believe that Ohio State (9-3 ATS) is making its first trip to the Rose Bowl since 1997 and Oregon since ’95. Both teams boast 10-2 records, but it will be a contrast of styles in Pasadena. The Buckeyes lean on their defense, 12.2 points per game allowed. Oregon (7-5 ATS) prefers to outscore teams, 37.7 points per game. The Ducks are the favorite and they are 1-6 ATS as bowlers in that role. The Buckeyes are 4-1 ATS as bowl dogs since 2002. The Pac-10 is 20-11 ATS in last 31 “Grand Daddy” games. The Big Ten has lost last six trips to Pasadena.

The Big Ten prides itself in the football sense on sending a team to the Rose Bowl on par with BCS championship game; it’s what Midwesterner’s know after all these years. This is a VERY important encounter for the conference and the Buckeyes. They’ve lost three straight BCS games to superior teams and though Oregon is the favorite, the Ducks are not in the class of the last trio of squads Ohio State has played in January.

Ohio State’s calling card is defense and they will have to find ways to shutdown the multi-faceted attack of the Ducks. Terrelle Pryor learned at the altar of Brett Favre to announce injury and say it is no big deal, entering in the Rose Bowl. Pryor has a torn PCL, which should limit him to pocket passer.

The Buckeyes are 9-2 ATS in the second half of the season the last two years and will lean on their offensive line to maintain the 199 yard average on the ground to combat the Ducks defense. That means the offensive line has to shove around Oregon and RB’s Dan Herron and Brandon Saine have to hit creases with authority. The Ohio State defense has forced two or more turnovers in 10 of 12 games this season and will need to keep that pace and score touchdowns if they create Oregon miscues. The Buckeyes are 10-2 ATS off a SU win, like they enjoyed over Michigan.

Oregon on paper is the better team and wins this game surprisingly easy if they mount an early 10 or 14-point lead. Ohio State is 106th passing in the country and unless they are fortunate enough to hit a few deep balls, the Ducks should be able to play well with the lead. Coach Chip Kelly’s diversified attack has the opportunity to keep Ohio State players and coaches guessing all day pass or run and LaMichael James and Jeremiah Masoli could have a wonderful opening of 2010 for team that is 6-0 ATS when playing with two weeks or more of rest over the last three seasons.

Bookmaker.com has Oregon as 4.5-point favorites with total of 50.5. Common opponents give the edge to the Ducks having beaten USC and Purdue, while Ohio State lost to both. System players should be aware New Year’s Day underdogs of three or more that played on the first day of new year or in BCS game as an underdog of 4.5 or more a season ago are 9-2 ATS.

3DW Line – Ohio State by 2

Happy New Year

To start football for 2010, the compelling game of the three is probably the least interesting in football terms. Today marks the end of the line for Bobby Bowden’s historic coaching career. He was as gracious in defeat as he was in victory and the game of college football takes a hit for losing such a great man. The best early game is LSU and Penn State in the Holiday Bowl with two schools synonymous with winning. The Big Ten Conference opened strong in the bowl season with Wisconsin victory; can Northwestern build on the momentum with their first postseason triumph in 62 years?


Outback Bowl
Auburn vs. Northwestern
Raymond James Stadium – Tampa
11:00E ESPN

Northwestern hasn’t won a bowl game since 1948, to break that trend it will need to beat an SEC team in one of the New Year’s Day conflicts. The Wildcats haven’t played on Jan. 1 since 1997and are underdogs to Auburn (7-5, 6-5-1 ATS) team, which won just two of its last seven games in 2009. Interestingly, the Outback underdog has covered the number the last five times the pointspread exceeded four points. Auburn offers a new approach as offensive team these days; however is 5-9 ATS as bowl chalk. The Tigers were 3-5 SU and 4-4 ATS vs. other bowlers. Northwestern (5-6 ATS) won last three games both SU and ATS to finish at 8-4.

Reasons to wager – Don’t right off Northwestern in this New Year’s opener. QB Mike Kafka is an all-purpose performer and the Wildcats are well-suited for this role since they are 10-3 ATS as underdogs recently, with eight outright upsets. While Auburn’s offense saw dramatic improvement this season, the defense went backwards, allowing a SEC-high 26.9 points per game. Though the players change, coach Gene Chizik should remind his team, Northwestern has given 43.8 points a bowl in last six tries. The Tigers will look to establish runners Ben Tate and Onterio McCalebb. If they do, this opens up passing lanes for Chris Todd who threw 21 touchdowns with only six interceptions. The Auburn defense has to turnover the Wildcats since they are 2-9 ATS after a game where they forced one or less turnovers over the last two seasons. Sportsbook.com has Northwestern catching eight points with total of 54 and the Wildcats are 32-14 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points, losing by 3.2 point per game.

3DW Line – Auburn by 7

Capitol One Bowl
LSU vs. Penn State
Citrus Bowl Stadium – Orlando
1:00E ABC

Penn State has gone 7-3 in bowl games since 1995, but two of the losses happened in Orlando. The Nittany Lions yielded just 11.8 points per game, en route to a 10-2 SU and 6-6 ATS record. LSU was 9-3 and 5-6-1 ATS, allowing just 16.0 points per game. The Tigers will also be looking to extend a run of overall success in bowl games, as they boast a 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS record since 1995. Under head coach Les Miles, the Tigers are 15-6 ATS in games versus non-conference foes. Penn State was a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS on the road this year. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in L5 matchups.

Reasons to wager- Both of these teams are perfectly placed in Orlando, since neither could beat the superior teams in their conference and their best wins are ordinary to say the least. Penn State emerges as winner if they stop a pedestrian LSU offensive line. It appears they should, however the only comparable opponents Penn State faced were Iowa and Oho State and they shoved the ball down the Nittany Lions throat for a combined 391 rushing yards. Penn State is a mere 6-17 ATS away from Mt. Nittany vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points a game. LSU has lacked any sort of offensive consistency all year and doesn’t figure to find it against a solid Penn State defense. What the Tigers have to do is stop Lions offense and win field position battle and stick with the running game. Jordan Jefferson can hit six passes in a row and miss next six, get him in comfortable locations on the field for success. LSU is 12-1 ATS away from home after consecutive games where they forced one or less turnovers.

3DW Line – Penn State by 4

Gator Bowl
West Virginia vs. Florida State
Municipal Stadium – Jacksonville
1:00E CBS

This will be Bobby Bowden’s last game on the sidelines for Florida State, as his team takes on West Virginia. Whether or not the Seminoles can make the game memorable for Bowden remains to be seen. With Florida State sporting a 6-6 SU and 3-9 ATS mark, they shouldn’t be playing New Year’s Day, but TV ratings matter. Florida State owns perhaps the worst defensive unit of any bowl team, yielding 443.4 yards per game and 6.8 yards per play. West Virginia (5-6 ATS) is 9-3 and has won four straight bowl games, with last loss coming to same opponent in this very game in 2005. The ACC is 7-2 ATS the previous nine encounters.

Reasons to wager- Not sure if there are exceptional reasons to tune in and place money on this Gator Bowl. Florida State’s flaws were spotted early, allowing almost 400 passing yards to Miami and having to come from behind in the fourth quarter to hold off Jacksonville State. Finishing second in too many recruiting battles, shows the Seminoles record is well-deserved. On offense, E.J. Manuel has stepped in for injured Christian Ponder, with mixed results. Like most freshmen quarterbacks, he was poised when he had time, but got in a hurry when pressured and was less selective in the red zone. The Noles are 29-11 ATS after two or more consecutive spread. Betting on old smiley face from West Virginia can be hazardous to one’s health and wagering account. West Virginia is 2.5-point favorite with total of 60 and coach Bill Stewart is 6-13 ATS as the favorite wearing the lead head set. The Mountaineers win this game with ease if QB Jarrett Brown returns to his pre-concussion form from October. West Virginia has too many speedy players to account for and if Brown is close to 100 percent clarity with this much time off, no reason they don’t knock off Florida State, except for the Stewart factor.

3DW Line – West Virginia by 4

New Year's Eve Treats

New Year’s Eve means the first of 15 bowls over the next three days. This is no place for the droopy-eyed sports bettor, this where you go on the attack. This is not the time to drink too much or eat too much. Life is all about moderation. No you don’t need to be a hermit, it’s not like the Peach Bowl is must see TV, rather enjoy the evening have laughs with friends and check your bets frequently however slick you have to be to pull it off. Preparation is the key is watching all these games over the 72 hours and I pity the fool who thinks he’s superman and parties like it’s 1999 and is going to make power-nap work in the context of halftime without having practiced. Lines from Bookmaker.com

Armed Forces Bowl
Air Force vs. Houston (-5, 63)
Amon Carter Stadium – Fort Worth
12:00E ESPN

It’s déjà vu all over again for Air Force and Houston, opponents for a second straight year in this bowl. The Cougars won last year, 34-28, covering the number on a late field goal. At 10-3 SU and 8-4 ATS, the Cougars are looking to culminate its best season since winning 11 games in 1979. Houston is averaging 43.9 points per game and a nation’s-best 581.1 yards per game on offense. Air Force was 7-5 and 6-4-1 ATS with just a 1-5 record vs. bowl teams. The Falcons rushed for 273.6 YPG this season, fourth nationally, and will look to take advantage of a Cougars defense that allowed 5.0 yards per rush.

Why watch and wager- Houston’s a good play if one believes they can dictate tempo. The Cougars will want to play fast with Case Keenum hitting receivers all over the field, which presumably leads to touchdowns. Houston has covered their last five games off a loss and the defense will have to be disciplined (unlikely) to stop Air Force attack. The Cougs are only 1-8 ATS in road games after outgaining opponent by 125 or more total yards in their previous game. Air Force is a good play if you believe they impose their will on Houston. The Falcons like the other military schools play hard for 60 minutes, which is not always the case for Houston. If Air Force establishes running game, the undisciplined Houston defense can be gashed over and over and if they can keep continual pressure on Keenum to frustrate the Cougars, those points look inviting, considering they are 19-9 ATS after rushing for 200 or more yards.

3DW Line – Houston by 1

Sun Bowl
Stanford vs. Oklahoma (-10, 55)
Sun Bowl Stadium – El Paso
2:00E CBS

El Paso natives are looking for a better showing than the 3-0 snore-fest a year ago. This bowl has typically been an exciting one, dominated by underdogs, 11-1-1 ATS prior to last year. The Pac-10 has won five straight games (3-2 ATS). All of this could bode well for Stanford, which comes in as a heavy underdog to Sooners without starting quarterback Andrew Luck. The Cardinal were 8-4 (7-5 ATS) this season to earn their first bowl bid since 2001. Oklahoma was 7-5 (4-7-1 ATS) and mostly inconsistent team. The Sooners have lost five of their last six bowl games both SU and ATS, with the one win coming in non-BCS ’05 Holiday Bowl.

Why watch and wager- This matchup could be called the “Backup Bowl” as neither will have their original signal caller, which will dramatically impact the outcome. Tavita Pritchard is in charge of completing passes for Stanford so running back Toby Gerhart doesn’t have face what would look like two dozen red helmets in the box. Under coach Jim Harbaugh the Cardinal is 7-0 ATS vs. teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more points per game over the last two seasons. Though the Sooners defense wasn’t as strong as expected, they had their moments especially against teams that like to run the ball. In November encounters, they stuffed both Texas A&M (59 yards) and Oklahoma State (62 yards) and are wholly capable of doing the same against Stanford, without the threat of the pass. Boomer Sooner’s bowl record under Bob Stoops has been lousy of late, however Oklahoma is 11-4 ATS after allowing 175 or less yards in previous game.

3DW Line –Oklahoma by 7

Texas Bowl
Missouri vs. Navy (+6.5, 52)
Reliant Stadium – Houston
3:30E ESPN

Navy (9-4, 5-6-1 ATS) has always been a very competitive team in bowl games (7-3 ATS), but comes into this year’s Texas Bowl looking to snap a three-game postseason losing streak. The Midshipmen have proven a predictable team when it comes to bowl games lately, going 4-1 ATS and 5-0 Over the total. Missouri provides the opposition, which rallied to an 8-4 (4-7 ATS) finish by winning four of its final five games, topping the 400-yard mark each time. The Tigers are a heavy favorite, which could prove important since the chalk is 7-1 SU and 6-1-1 ATS in the history of this game, including a 3-0-1 ATS record with lines of 6.5 points or more.

Why watch and wager- Missouri quarterback Blaine Gabbert should be able to pick out receiver Danario Alexander among others, since Navy generates little pass rush and is in the bottom 20 percent in forcing negative plays. If Gabbert finds open receivers, that makes RB Derrick Washington that much more dangerous opening up all kinds of possibilities for squad that is 13-3 as a 3.5 to 10-point favorite. Navy covers the number by establishing fullback Vince Murray. If the Middies puncture the center of Tigers defense, that opens up quarterback Ricky Dobbs on the edges. Dobbs is the best passer Navy has had in decades, and immensely effective in play-action off the fullback dive for long gains. The Midshipmen are remarkable 71-44 ATS as underdogs the last 17 seasons.

3DW Line –Missouri by 3

Insight Bowl
Minnesota vs. Iowa State +2.5, 48.5)
Sun Devil Stadium – Tempe
6:00E NFL Network

Minnesota (5-6-1 ATS) is one of a handful of teams playing in the same bowl game that it did a year ago. The Golden Gophers have become quite familiar with the Phoenix area, making third trip to Tempe in last four years. Unfortunately, they lost two previous contests. This will be the first time Minnesota is favored, despite 6-6 record in the regular season. Iowa State (7-4 ATS) shares that same record and is in a bowl for the first time since 2005. The Cyclones are looking to extend a three-game winning streak by the Big 12 in this bowl, one that has been high scoring and 13-3-1 Over since 1992. The underdog is 8-4 ATS the last dozen years.

Why watch and wager- The records of these two schools suggest just another meaningless bowl game, but that’s hardly what the coaches are thinking. Iowa State has posted win totals of 4, 3 and 2 the last few years, for a total of nine, thus a seven win season with a bowl win for first year coach Paul Rhoads would be an amazing accomplishment. Throw out a 16-13 victory over South Dakota State on Nov.14 and Minnesota is 0-9 (4-5 ATS) playing big boy football once the calendar flips to November the last three years. QB Adam Weber has to keep his wits about him for Minnesota. Yes, he taken a pounding and was gun-shy the last few games and if doesn’t correct this feeling, Golden Gophers drop to 0-5 ATS as bowl favorites. The Cyclones are not going to generate a lot of points, which means the defense has to step up and put the Gophers in a hole. Though mostly against the Hawkeyes, Iowa State is 10-2 ATS vs. the Big Ten.

3DW Line –Minnesota by 1

Chick-Fil-A Bowl
Virginia Tech vs. Tennessee (+5.5, 49.5)
Georgia Dome – Atlanta
7:30E ESPN

The Volunteers and Hokies will send off 2009 in the last college football game of the calendar year. Virginia Tech (7-5 ATS) is favored after finishing 9-3, winning its last four games both SU and ATS, conceding just 8.8 PPG. The Hokies haven’t been the best bowl team of late, going just 3-5 SU and ATS since 2001. Tennessee (7-5 SU & ATS) shares that same bowl record in its eight games and has gone Under the total in five straight bowl battles, including twice in the old Peach Bowl. The Vols are looking to extend a streak of four straight upset wins by SEC teams in this bowl series.

Why watch and wager – For each of these teams, the goal is the same it’s just the method in which they get there is the difference. New coach Lane Kiffin was able to harness Jonathan Crompton from a mistake-prone quarterback into one that make better decisions and cut down interceptions. This was helped by Montario Hardesty who used his senior season to blossom and Crompton had deception on his side with a running game. In spite of alarming defensive injuries, the Vols held together under DC Monte Kiffin and are is 20-8 ATS away from Knoxville playing a team with 75 percent or better win percentage. This is important game for the stature of the ACC and Virginia Tech. The conference has started 1-3 SU as a bowler and Virginia Tech is in search of fifth straight 10-win season. Did you know Virginia Tech’s Ryan Williams actually gained more yards rushing and had more touchdowns the Heisman winner Mark Ingram? Neither did anyone else and if he can break the century mark against the Vols, the Hokies should be good. The biggest concern Frank Beamer is lack if pass rush, exposing mediocre secondary. The Hokies are 32-14 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.

3DW Line –Virginia Tech by 6

Defense could reign at Holiday Bowl

The chant “D-Fence” might be ringing around Qualcomm Park for this addition of the 2009 Holiday Bowl. If this is low-scoring defense struggle, don’t be surprised, since Nebraska ranks ninth in total defense and Arizona comes in 20th among FBS schools. Those who watched the Big 12 championship game, viewed just how good defensive tackle Nudamukong Suh and the rest of the Nebraska defense is in almost taking down Texas.

Nebraska (9-4, 8-4 ATS) was a foot away from an upset of the Longhorns and a BCS berth in the Big 12 title game. Instead, the Longhorns winning field goal snuck inside the upright. Now the Cornhuskers must regroup and prepare for Arizona who can also play a little D. The children of the corn are 8-3 ATS against teams with winning records.

The Wildcats finished 11th in the country against the run and they will look to corral Roy Helu, one of the more underrated backs in the country. Quarterback Zac Lee does not appear to pose a threat, since he has neither the arm, accuracy nor poise under pressure to run long drives against a defense like Arizona. The Cats are 2-7-1 ATS in last 10 non-conference clashes and can turn some heads with a win in San Diego.

For long time Holiday Bowl aficionados, this is the second ever rematch, with these teams having competed in 1998. The Wildcats (8-4, 6-6 ATS) won 23-20 on that day and they will be after a second trophy.

Arizona’s season took off when Nick Foles took over as quarterback, giving them diversity on offense. The Wildcats will face a very good Nebraska pass defense and he will have to make quick reads and release the ball for a team that is 9-3 ATS as underdogs.

For all of Nebraska’s previous excellence, they are pedestrian 23-22 and 16-15 ATS after the regular season. The line movement has been wild on this matchup. The Cornhuskers started as favorites, were sent to underdogs by early bettors, with the late money reestablishing them as three-point favorites at DiamondSportsbook.com. No matter who is the favorite, it’s been a good thing in this spot with 10-3 SU and ATS in this encounter since 1996.

Arizona has a three bowl winning streak, however it dates back to 1997 and they are 6-7-1 and 6-4-1 ATS all-time. Since 1998, this has been a Big 12-Pac 10 tilt, with the teams from out west 8-3 ATS. In the last dozen years, the Big 12 is 3-9 ATS.

Both defenses would seem to have decided edges over respective offenses, but both could force turnovers or create field position advantages that could lead to points, thus the Under isn’t a guarantee.

ESPN has this surely physical battle at 8:00 Eastern and Nebraska’s outstanding kicker Alex Henery could be the difference in a tight tilt.

3DW Line – Nebraska by 4

A Battle in Boise

The opening bowl game on the Wednesday lineup has two teams in sharp contrast to what is expected later the same evening in a different bowl matchup. Why on earth would any sane person desire to watch Idaho and Bowling Green play football? Well, if you made the time for Temple and UCLA, this has a much larger potential for entertainment value with total listed at 68 points and besides, who doesn’t like a to watch a game on the Smurf Turf?

Idaho’s first winning season since 1999 was a tail of two separate campaigns. The first part of the season has the folks from Moscow going nuts as the Vandals were 6-1 and 7-0 ATS, making bettors unbelievably pleased. When the schedule picked, the defense wore down and Idaho allowed 50 points per game in finishing 1-4 and 0-5 ATS. The passing game was special all season in finishing 12th nationally.

Bowling Green also finished 7-5 SU and ATS during the regular season, having the almost complete opposite year. The Falcons began 1-4 (2-3 ATS) and had a soaring finish with 6-1 and 5-2 ATS close. The Bowling Green pass offense was even better in ranking 8th overall and the defense forced 11 turnovers is 4-0 SU and ATS close of regular season.

Other reasons to watch are some of the players involved. Bowling Green has receiver Freddy Barnes, who is five catches away from setting the NCAA record with 143 receptions in the season. Barring injury, this is the closest thing to a lock in this contest, since Barnes averages over 10 catches a game for a team that is 8-1 ATS away from home after the first month of the season over the last two years.

Idaho doesn’t have a star exactly, just a number of player to keep an eye. Junior quarterback Nathan Enderle has a strong arm and leads a down the field passing game that averaged 9.5 yards per attempt, better than two yards more than what opponents allowed. The Vandals have a trio of running backs and they will be important if Idaho is to win, since the defense can’t stay on the field for long (allow 35.5 PPG) and coach Robb Akey doesn’t want one-dimensional attack. Though Idaho can be expected to be pumped up for rare bowl appearance, they’ve shown an inclination of having a tough time turning negatives around with 3-12 ATS record after two or more consecutive straight up losses the last few years.

Bowling Green has been a streaky bowl team at 4-4, losing first three, winning next four, before being dismantled by Tulsa 63-7 in GMAC Bowl in 2008. The Falcons are 1-5 and 2-4 ATS vs. other postseason participants.

This is Idaho’s second-ever bowl experience as part of the FBS universities. They played in this very game 11 years ago and pulled one the bigger outright upsets in downing Southern Miss 42-35 as 17.5-point dogs. This is first time a MAC squad has played in this bowl and the underdog has covered four of last five.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Bowling Green as a one-point underdog, which is where they started after being a favorite for about two weeks. The Falcons are 6-0 ATS on the road vs. poor passing defenses allowing completion percentage of 58 percent or worse. Presuming the line holds, Idaho is 9-4 ATS as an underdog and 9-2 ATS after surrendering 450 or more yards in next game, though unfamiliar territory with this much time off for a bowl experience.

ESPN will have it live in Boise at 4:30 Eastern and watch guard Idaho guard Mike Iupati, looks like sure-fire NFL player.

3DW Line – Bowling Green by 7

Lining up two more Bowlers

One of the great aspects of this week leading up to being bombarded by bowl battles, for the next couple of days; you can take them one at a time before the onslaught arrives. This way the sports bettor can sit back and enjoy the games and not have to be consumed with flipping channels, which will come soon enough. Make the time to enjoy the relative serenity of one game at a time, with a pair of contests that offer notable contrasts.

EagleBank Bowl
UCLA vs. Temple
RFK Stadium – Washington, DC
4:30E ESPN

UCLA (6-6, SU & ATS) found out the true meaning of bowl eligible, having to wait two weeks to find out if they had another game or not. When Army lost to Navy, that set into motion the Bruins plans and they head this far East for the first time since 1998, when they traveled to Miami-Fl, however the nation’s capital in late December isn’t exactly South or Santa Monica Beach. Temple (9-3, 8-3 ATS) also had to wait just over a week to find out whom they would play, but they didn’t mind a bit, since the Owls are going bowling for the first time in 31 years. If any team should be jacked, it should be Temple and having a BCS team as opponent just adds to excitement.

Coach Al Golden has turned in one of the better coaching jobs this season, taking a team with definite limitations and almost making to the MAC title game. True freshman Bernard Pierce was sensational, running for 1,308 yards and 15 TDs, essentially in just eight games. Temple averaged 192 yards per game against teams that allowed 157 YPG and the Owls are 23-11 ATS in all games over the last three seasons. The one dimension missing is a passing game, having not thrown for more than 150 yards since Oct.10. With this time off, coach Golden hopes a semblance of passing the pigskin is possible with Temple 8-21 ATS away from home when they gain 100 to 150 net passing yards.

At least the Owls have something to hoot about offensively, that’s more than UCLA can say. The Bruins managed just one more yard of total offense than Temple at 339 yards (albeit vs much tougher competition) and did not run or throw with aplomb. Kevin Prince is presumed to be UCLA’s starting signal caller and could use the help of offensive linemen to block somebody. The Bruins are 4-20 ATS when they run for 100 to 150 yards and Temple surrendered just 109 per game this season.

The UCLA run defense had was run over by teams with a solid run game, however with Owls not being able to fly via the air, the Bruins can pack the box and dare Temple to beat them throwing the ball. UCLA is 17-8 ATS after a spread loss like they suffered against rival USC and Bookmaker.com has them as 4.5-point favorites with total drifting downward to 44.

As mentioned, Temple has to be super excited to play in this game, with better than three decades between bowl appearances and the Owls are 16-6 ATS as underdogs. UCLA didn’t show a substantial amount of improvement, other than becoming eligible to play in this contest and frosty environment against a team with a long losing history, doesn’t figure to make the Bruins charged-up. Their 28-7 loss to the Trojans has UCLA 2-6 ATS off a loss by 20 or more.

Temple has almost no postseason history, having played in bowls in 1978 and 1934. The Owls only took on three teams playing in bowls and was 1-2 and 2-1 ATS in 2009. The Bruins postseason history is much deeper at 13-15-1 with 11-11 ATS. UCLA has performed much better in the role as underdog compared to favorite like they are in the second EagleBank Bowl. They are 5-10 ATS as chalk, including most recent 2-7 spread mark.

3DW Line – Pick

Champs Sports Bowl
Wisconsin vs. Miami-Fl
Citrus Bowl Stadium – Orlando
8:00E ESPN

Wisconsin still has not-so-distant and not-so-pleasant memories of its last trip to the Champs Sports Bowl. That came last December when the Badgers (9-3, 6-6 ATS) were spanked 42-13 by Florida State. For 2009, Miami-Fl. is the opponent, and though head coach Bret Bielema’s team is two games better than it was a year ago, the Hurricanes (9-3, 6-6 ATS) present an imposing challenge. Miami ended up having played one of the country’s tougher schedules featuring eight bowl teams (5-3 SU & ATS). The Badgers were matched against seven postseason participants (4-3, 2-5 ATS) and failed to win or cover versus the last three.

This bowl has had more name changes than the emotions Urban Meyer has gone through in the last week (Tangerine, Blockbuster and Micron PC) and annually has been one of the least competitive bowls, as since 1993 only three games have been decided by a touchdown of less. Maybe a cheap tire company should be the sponsor in the “Blowout Bowl”.

Wisconsin has to have QB Scott Tolzien play well or the Badgers probably can’t win just running with John Clay. They need balance and throwing to talented tight ends and underrated WR Nick Toon, prevents Miami from stuffing the box. Off their demolition of Hawaii (51-10), Wisconsin is 21-6-1 ATS next after conceding 20 or fewer points.

Miami must have quarterback Jacory Harris at the top of his game. The Hurricanes undoubtedly have more offensive weapons, speed and athleticism, however if Harris is under pressure in the pocket, the offense tends not function as proficiently. It would make sense for Miami to play to strengths and come out throwing, testing the Badgers with their speed and determine how they react, which leads to running the ball with Graig Copper and their stable of backs. The Canes have covered five of last seven against teams with winning records.

Miami is a 3.5-point favorite, with total of 57 and despite most recent 7-3 ATS bowl mark, the Hurricanes are 10-24-1 ATS as favorites. The Badgers have covered the number just once in last seven encounters against squads with winning records and are 4-9 ATS as underdogs.

Wisconsin has become a bowl regular and is 9-10 with 9-8 ATS mark. This will be the Badgers sixth straight trip to the Sunshine State for bowl activity and the eighth consecutive time they will be an underdog in the postseason (3-4 SU & 4-3 ATS). Miami is 18-14 as a bowler, with above average 14-10 ATS record. The Hurricanes are 11-9 ATS as faves, but 1-3 ATS the last four times. The ACC team in the Champs Bowl has six-game winning streak with 4-2 ATS record.

3DW Line – Miami by 4