Had a ton of Super Bowl work to do this week, which is why I haven’t been able to keep up. Found an absolutely beauty of a CBB system this is 89.7 percent. Have a rock solid perfect trend today in college hoops and red hot Paul Buck has a pair of freebies. Good Luck
What I thought today- A lot of cappers will take Vanderbilt with the points, but honestly I think that is a lazy pick with no real opinion on if it is right or wrong. They hope to be right taking road dog to look smart. The battle of Kansas should be outstanding, but another superb game today is Harvard at Cornell in the Ivy League. These are two awfully good teams and if the Big Red wins, they might pop into the Top 25 next week.
On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners
Free Basketball System -1) Play Against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Central Florida, who are average 3-point shooting team (32-36.5 percent), against a good 3-point defense (32 percent or less), after two straight games making 37 percent of their shots or worse. In the last 13 years this system sparkles like champagne at 26-3 ATS.
Free Basketball Trend -2) Louisiana Tech is 12-0 ATS versus poor defensive teams with shooting pct. defense of 45 percent or worse the last three seasons.
Free Basketball Pick -3) Paul Buck continues to smoke the odds, 14-3 in the NBA and 11-4 in college hoops. He's got two plays he likes equally- USC and Georgia.
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College Hoops Dominates Landscape
For a lot of casual bettors and fans, this is really the kickoff of the college basketball season. Forget the fact that more than half the season has already been played, with no football this weekend (unless you consider the Senior Bowl and Pro Bowl football) a vast number of people start turning their attention towards college hoops and beginning mentally prepping for March Madness which is not that many weeks away. Here is a look at some of the top matches this weekend on the collegiate hardwood. Sides and total from Bookmaker.com.Saturday, Jan. 3o
Louisville at West Virginia (-7, 137.5) 12:00E ESPN
Louisville (13-7, 5-10 ATS), playing in the Big East is going to face more than their fair share of challenging opponents and as per usual went out of conference to face a number of tough hombres. Come tournament time that helps your resume, however it really helps the confidence of the team to beat a Top 25 club, not just play with them. The Cardinals are 0-4 SU and ATS against ranked teams and will have another shot to improve against West Virginia. The Cards are 18-7 ATS in conference road games over the last three seasons.
Since its fast start, West Virginia (16-3, 7-11 ATS) has been erratic in its play since 2010 began with 5-3 and 3-5 ATS record. Continual 40 minute effort has been lacking, with the Mountaineers playing like characters in a Rob Zombie movie, with no visible signs of emotion. What has curtailed West Virginia’s excellence is their star players have not been playing like stars. Da’Sean Butler and Devin Ebanks have been off their game somewhat and it has had a trickle affect on the team. They will look to find earlier rhythm and are 38-20 ATS vs. teams who attempt 21 or more three point shots a game.
Louisville has failed to cover their last five contests; however is 5-1 and 4-2 ATS against West Virginia the last dozen years.
Duke at Georgetown (+2, 141.5) 1:00E CBS
As opposed to previous few seasons, this Duke (17-3, 13-6 ATS) team could do some damage in the NCAA Tournament instead of being bounced early on. This matchup with Georgetown will be a good barometer where the Blue Devils are at present and what improvements they should work on. Credit Kyle Singler for finding ways to work thru shooting slump. Instead of just firing away, he brought his game closer to the basket, taking more 10-15 foot shots and worked the offensive glass, building confidence until he was back in groove for team that is 11-21 ATS against the Big East.
The same measuring stick can all be used by Georgetown (15-4, 8-7 ATS), who was scorched by Syracuse 73-56 after starting the contest with 14-0 lead. The Hoyas Greg Monroe has become the focal point of the team, delivering all over the floor and his desire to run on the break not only shows hustle, but a willingness to be team player, hungry to win. In reviewing Georgetown’s season, one fact sticks out like Heidi Montag’s plastic surgeries, if Chris Wright doesn’t play well, the Hoyas will labor to be victorious. G-Town is a raunchy 11-22 ATS in home games over the last three seasons.
Duke comes in 10-4 ATS off a win like they enjoyed over Florida State, while Georgetown is 8-2-1 ATS in non-conference tilts. With both teams ranked, the underdog is 3-1-1 ATS in five previous meetings.
Oklahoma State at Missouri (-7.5, 145.5) 2:00E ESPN
The top three teams in the Big 12 have been established, but who is one rung down? We’ll start to find out with this encounter. Oklahoma State (16-4, 9-4-1 ATS) is a smallish team, too dependent on outside shooting, which explains them ranking ninth in the conference in buckets made. When the offense breaks down, all eyes turn to guard James Anderson to bail them out. Though Anderson his very good player, he can’t be counted on to make shots from bad spots on the floor with the shot clock winding down. The Cowboys are going to have to step up after losing two of last three as visitors and are 26-43 ATS as a road underdog or pick.
Missouri’s unique brand of basketball is a little like the triple option in football, you can simulate it in practice, but that doesn’t mean you are ready for it in games. The Tigers (15-5, 8-6 ATS) defensive pressure forces over 20 turnovers a game, however what coach Mike Anderson’s club doesn’t get credit for is defending the perimeter, allowing the lowest three-point percentage of buckets made in the Big 12. Missouri’s front line looks to matchup and secure a draw, being inexperienced and having the guards to score points. The Tigers are 21-12 ATS as a favorite since last year.
Okie State has a three game win streak in the works and is 17-5-1 ATS off a SU victory. Missouri is perfect 12-0 at home this season (5-2 ATS) and is 21-6 against the spread in last 27 contests in Columbia. The straight up winner is 8-1-1 ATS since 2002.
Washington State at Washington (-8.5, 156) 3:30E FSN
Alright, the Pac-10 has a foul odor about it and even the Patriot League looks more interesting this season. Nonetheless, somebody has to win this conference and these two teams believe they can answer the bell to be that team. Washington State (14-6, 6-11 ATS) is your classic ADHD team, seldom focusing for long periods of time without drifting into other thoughts. Coach Ken Bone is looking a more even keel approach and threatened to start sitting players if they are not ready to play, even star Klay Thompson. The Cougars are 10-19 ATS against teams outscoring opponents by four or points a game.
Coach Lorenzo Romar had seen enough. After three indifferent Pac-10 performances that ended up being losses, coach Romar inserted forward Justin Holiday into the starting lineup and he set the table with his defensive energy for others to follow. Senior Quincy Pondexter was pleased with the shakeup, since as a senior; he wants to win the Pac-10 title. Unfortunately, Washington (13-7) went to Los Angeles last weekend and was swept by the L.A. universities leaving them three games behind California in the Pac-10 chase. The Huskies want to hurry the pace and are 35-18 ATS when they score 75 to 80 points.
Washington is one of the worst bets in college basketball at 5-14 ATS. The Huskies have taken nine of last 12 at Bank of America Arena in the Apple Cup rivalry, but have played like dogs with just four covers.
Vanderbilt at Kentucky (-8.5, 154) 4:00E ESPN
Two weeks ago this SEC showdown would have been footnote in most newspapers across the country. That has abruptly changed with what has happen the last 14 days. Vanderbilt (16-3, 10-6 ATS) is the last unbeaten team in the conference with their impressive 85-76 win at Tennessee as six-point underdogs. That gave the Commodores 10 straight wins (7-2 ATS) and they are bubbling to the top as one of the best shooting teams in the country at 49.8 percent. Vandy shooters have been dandy, making less than half their attempts just twice in this streak. This underappreciated squad is 13-2 and 10-4 ATS off a SU triumph.
Top-ranked Kentucky (19-1, 9-9 ATS) was the last unbeaten to fall, being demonized by South Carolina guard Devan Downey, who literally threw in 30 points against the Wildcats. Coach John Calipari was mildly disappointed, more frustrated his team was outworked. However like any good coach, he’s not going to dwell on one defeat. “It’s a great lesson,” Calipari said. “A lot of times, until you take an ‘L’ they don’t want to believe you. Especially with how young we are.” Kentucky may be a young team, however the most shocking aspect from the loss was the no-show performance from junior Patrick Patterson, who totaled five points (0 in last 20 minutes) and lacked any sort of assertiveness they may have made the difference, especially from an upperclassman. The Cats are 8-0 and 5-1 ATS off a non-cover.
Kentucky will face a far more balanced team in Vanderbilt than they witnessed at South Carolina. Playing before Ashley Judd and the rest of the zealous Kentucky fans will be a big plus, along with being 9-2 SU and 7-4 ATS against Vandy since 1998 in Lexington.
Kansas at Kansas State (+4, 155) 7:00E ESPN
Though Kansas (19-1,9-7-1 ATS) probably is the most talented team in the country, it hasn’t shown the killer instinct that of the club that won the national championship two years ago. The Jayhawks will go on auto-pilot emotionally and as coach Bill Self acknowledged, this group doesn’t like to embarrass opponents and flex their intimidation muscles like their predecessors. Kansas is 10-2 ATS playing against a team with a winning record this season, but if they don’t bring a bucket of raw emotion like did in mauling Missouri this past Monday, they could stumble again.
Kansas State’s got game, a lot of game. The Wildcats (17-3, 11-4 ATS) not only have a sound backcourt, their frontline has proven to be vastly underrated. Curtis Kelly and Jamar Samuels have found ways to score in the paint and Luis Colon can be a defensive presence when not committing senseless fouls. Though Jacob Pullen and Denis Clemente make a terrific backcourt combination, Rodney McGruder has a spark plug off the bench as third guard and will eat up more minutes if either of the other two is having off night. K-State is 9-2 ATS vs. teams outscoring opponents by four or points game this campaign.
This series is not a pantisocracy, with Kansas 11-1 SU and ATS at Bramlage Coliseum since 1997.
Sunday, Jan. 31
Florida at Tennessee (-7.5, 141 ) 1:00E CBS
Coach Billy Donovan has a conundrum. “I have a hard time figuring these guys out sometimes,” Donovan said. This is the main reason why Florida (15-5, 8-7 ATS) stumbled out of the SEC gate and is trying to play catch up in the formidable East Division. Among the problems is forward Dan Werner’s prolonged shooting slump. Though guard Erving Walker has been drilling shots beyond the arc, other than Alex Tyus, game to game the scoring has been spotty. The better teams continue to beat the Gators off dribble penetration and they do a poor job on rotation giving up too many easy buckets. They have strung together four SEC wins playing three of those games in Gainesville, but must be sound defensively since Florida is 0-7 ATS when they allow 75 to 80 points.
This might be Bruce Pearl’s best coaching job. Losing four players to suspension (two returned) and having to end the career of his best player Tyler Smith for transgressions, Pearl helped unite his squad and they accepted responsibility. Often the merry prince, senior center Wayne Chism immediately thrust himself into leadership role and his on-court play jumped markedly. Presumed freshman sensation Kenny Hall was buried on the Tennessee bench, however after the upheaval; he’s become instant energy off the bench for the Vols. Veterans J.P. Prince, Scotty Hopson and Bobby Maze have all become better players particularly on defense.
The Vols (15-4, 8-8 ATS) are 11-3 ATS when they make 47 to 53 percent of their shots, but have failed to connect on more than 44 percent in last four games, losing the last two outright as favorites. Has the emotion worn off for Tennessee and now they are starting to feel the pain of not having Smith? Everyone finds out since the Volunteers are 9-3 and 8-4 ATS vs. Florida the last 12 seasons.
Maryland at Clemson (-4.5, 145 ) 5:30E FSN
The Terrapins started the season in the Top 25 and haven’t returned since losing two of three in Hawaii. That started a period of dissonant play in December, however since the calendar started a new year, Maryland (14-5, 8-6 ATS) is looking more like a ranked team again winning six of seven, including four in a row (6-0 ATS in January). Senior guard Greivis Vasquez is good for at least 20 points most nights and Landon Milbourne has regained level of more consistent play. Maryland was probably a bit overrated to begin with and everyone will have to play well against Clemson’s full court press. They Terps are 16-6 ATS in road games since 2007.
Clemson (15-6, 9-9 ATS) begins an important stretch of games, playing four of the next five at home after losing three in a row. Finished with Duke and North Carolina, the Tigers can write their own ticket for the ACC, trying to maneuver up from eighth place. Clemson has frequently played imposing basketball, but can’t sustain it for two halves often enough. They’ve built big leads and lost them and fallen behind and made furious comebacks, coach Oliver Purnell would prefer to see the pendulum not swing as dramatically. Clemson is 12-4 ATS in home games facing teams converting 45 or percent of their shots.
Maryland has won seven of 11 at Clemson with 4-6-1 ATS mark.
NBA 2nd Half Season Betting Systems
With the College Bowl games now in the rear view mirror and a new Super Bowl champion about to be crowned, our focus shifts to the NBA where teams are now engaged in the 2nd half the season.With that, let’s check your handicapping prowess as we take a look at a handful of handicapping theories that apply to teams playing from Game 42 out during the regular season in the NBA. All results are ATS (Against The Spread) and are since 1990, prior to the start of the current 2009-10 season…
1. FACT OR FICTION: TEAMS OFF BACK-TO-BACK DOUBLE-DIGIT WINS DOMINATE TEAMS OFF BACK-TO-BACK DOUBLE DIGIT LOSSES.
Fiction. The fact of the matter is these teams are just 52-59-1 ATS, including 23-32-1 ATS at home. At home against .367 or greater opponents they dip to 6-14-1 ATS. Worse, at home with a win percentage of less than .677 they are 1-12-1 ATS when facing a .367 or greater foe.
2. FACT OR FICTION: DOUBLE-DIGIT DOGS OFF SU WIN AS A DOUBLE DIGIT-DOG ARE JUST GETTING STARTED.
Fact. That’s confirmed by the fact that these teams are 32-18 ATS, including 15-6 ATS when facing an opponent off a SU and ATS wins. Better yet, put these guys up against an opponent off a SU and ATS win of six or more points and they zoom to 10-1 ATS.
3. FACT OR FICTION: DOGS OFF A SU LOSS AS DOUBLE-DIGIT FAVORITES BOUNCE BACK BIG THE NEXT GAME VERSUS AN OPPONENT OFF A SU AND ATS LOSS.
Fiction. Quite the opposite, considering the fact that they are 9-17 ATS, including 6-15 ATS away.Home or away, they are virtual no-shows if the opponent lost Su as a favorite in its last game, going 1-11 ATS.
4. FACT OR FICTION: ROAD WHO ARE 0-3 SU AND ATS THEIR LAST 3 GAMES CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WHEN FACING AN OPPONENT THAT IS 3-0 SU AND ATS IN ITS LAST THREE GAMES.
Fiction. The truth of the matter is while struggling these teams bring ‘value’ to the contest as they are 64-51-3 ATS, including 20-10-1 ATS when taking more than 10 points.
Better yet, when taking more than 10 points in same conference games they are an eye-opening 12-1-1 ATS.
5. FACT OR FICTION: TEAMS OFF THREE STRAIGHT-UP WINS IN A ROW AS AN UNDERDOG CONTINUE THEIR WINNING WAYS.
Fact. Momentum goes a long way in the NBA. Teams off three consecutive upset wins in a row are 38-28-1 ATS. Put them up against division foes and they really turn things up, going 17-5 ATS, including 15-2 ATS versus sub .550 opposition.
There you have it. Five Super Systems to follow the 2nd half of this season. Happy hunting.
Article from Marc Lawrence at Playbook.com
Badgers try to sweep Boilers
Annually one of the most confounding teams in the country is Wisconsin. Even though Bo Ryan can X and O with the best in college basketball, a look at the roster before the season screams of this school not being in the Top 125 talent-wise. Yet here they are, in second place the Big Ten Conference with 6-2 record, which appears to be improved over recent years. The Badgers (16-4, 10-8 ATS) will lean a little heavier on guard Trevon Hughes, with versatile forward Jon Leuer out three to four more weeks with broken wrist. Wisconsin is 7-3 ATS vs. teams like Purdue allowing 64 or less points a game this season.Last week, the Boilermakers (16-3, 9-10 ATS) broke their three-game losing skid at Illinois 84-78, getting a lift from unlikely source which seemed to elevate the entire squad. John Hart, who had played all of 33 minutes and wasn’t even in official score book for that game, came off the bench to score 14 points (12 in second half) to lead Purdue charge. Coach Matt Painter hopes this leads to others being productive off the bench which invigorates the team to play more for each other, instead of feeling pressured to produce on individual basis. Purdue is 15-7 ATS in home games after a conference game over the last three seasons.
Wisconsin has seen guard Jordan Taylor rise to the occasion with the absence of Leuer, scoring and displaying all around floor game. This could be challenging spot the Badgers; since they are 4-9-1 ATS in road games vs. teams with a winning home record.
Purdue is still jittery home favorite, sporting 9-1 and .500 spread record. The win at Champaign was followed up with mauling Michigan in first half 43-27, but let backers down in being outscored by six points in final stanza and failing to cover the 13-point spread.
The Boilers have normally blasted the Badgers at home and are on 8-1 SU and ATS run against them, which is why Bookmaker.com has them as 9.5-point favorites. Purdue is 9-2 when playing with three or more days rest, nonetheless is vile 3-8 ATS with this much time to practice.
Wisconsin took the earlier meeting 73-66 at the Kohl Center as one-point home underdogs and has covered six of last seven Thursday throw-downs.
This Big Ten battle is in the 7:00 Eastern Time slot on ESPN with a total of 126 and the Badgers are 1-10 UNDER on the road and Purdue is 6-2 OVER on Thursday nights.
NBA Betting Opportunites
In the two televised games on TNT tonight, a special situation occurs you don’t see every night. Boston and Dallas are the two road teams that are on television and they rank first and third respectively in the NBA for the best straight up road records at 16 -6 and 16-8. Their opponents are both in the Top 10 for the best home records, winning over 73 percent. This leaves NBA sports bettors to not only to try and figure out spreads, but also contemplate money line possibilities.Boston at Orlando 8:00 Eastern
The Celtics (29-13, 17-25 ATS) have the second best record in the Eastern Conference behind Cleveland. This veteran club is 16-6 on the road, but is far from a good bet despite their success. Boston is merely 11-11 ATS in the visiting green uniforms; however it’s hard to blame them for merely being average. The Celtics have been labeled a road favorite 16 of their 22 road excursions and they are 12-4 SU, a very solid record. In those games they have won by an incredible 8.2 points per game, yet are 7-9 ATS, which ends up being more an indictment of the opposition, than of Boston.
The Orlando Magic (29-16, 21-21-3 ATS) have played 10 of last 14 away from their central Florida home and will be in more familiar surroundings with four of their next five outings. The Magic are 16-4 SU at Amway Arena (5th best home record) and punish visiting clubs by 10.4 points per game. In the gambling world, this type of success will bring high numbers from oddsmakers, which is why Orlando is not so magical 10-9-1 ATS at home.
The Celtics only recently got Kevin Garnett back after he missed 10 games and while the defense has picked up immediately, the offense is lagging behind. Boston averages 99.7 points per game, but has only reached that figure twice in last nine tries. This explains recent 3-6 ATS record, including losing five in a row. The Bookmaker.com oddsmakers have handed out the typical number for these evenly matched teams, making the C’s a four-point underdog with total of 187.5.
Boston is deceiving 10-20 ATS after playing consecutive games as favorite this season (they win by 5.4 PPG). Orlando lost at Memphis in previous game and is splendid 34-12 ATS off a road defeat over the last three seasons. The road team has won three in a row in this matchup, including the Magic totaling a mere 77 points at home on Christmas Day, losing by nine as 5.5-point favorites. They are 23-11 ATS revenging a home loss. The total is the lowest in 11 regular season games at the city Walt Disney made famous and six of last eight have played UNDER the number.
Dallas at Phoenix 10:30 Eastern
If the earlier game looks defensive-minded, this Western Conference conflict will alter that situation from the opening tip. Dallas (30-15, 20-25 ATS) is a rock solid 16-8 on the road (15-9 ATS), winning by over four points per game. The Mavericks seem to be more comfortable away from home, despite having same winning percentage. This is determined by Dallas winning by just 1.5 points per game at American Airlines Center. Their one point 108-107 win over Milwaukee Tuesday got them into the NBA record books and it’s hard to determine if the Mavs are good or just lucky, as that win was their 10th straight victory by a single digit, tying the St. Louis Hawks from 50 years ago. Dallas is 47-26 ATS on the road after a game where both teams scored 105 points or more.
Phoenix (26-21, 22-24 ATS) is no longer on the rise. After starting 14-3, the Suns have been setting, losing 18 of next 30. In that first part of the season, Phoenix at least gave a passing interest in attempting to play defense, allowing 104.5 points per game, since then the Suns have greater disinterest is halting opponents from scoring, now ranked next to last in points allowed at 107.9.
Phoenix is above average 17-6 at Planet Orange with 11-11-1 ATS mark. They have been without two important bench players Leandro Barbosa and Grant Hill, with Barbosa out six weeks after wrist surgery and Hill day to day with bum heel. Also swirling around the desert is the specter of Amare Stoudemire trade, which has him going pretty much everywhere but to a good team. While the Suns big man talks about wanting to win, respect to him means a max contract and his defense and rebounding would generously be described as ordinary. The floundering Suns are 7-21 ATS in January games over the last two seasons.
Phoenix is a 1.5-point home favorite with total of 216 and they are off a 114-109 overtime home loss to Charlotte. The Suns are 20-9 ATS in home games after contest in which both teams scored 105 points or more and are 18-8 OVER after draining a dozen or more three-point shots. Dallas on the other hand is 11-2 ATS as visitors after not covering the spread and 11-1 UNDER after two straight games where they made 50 percent of their shots or better.
The Suns are playing into triple revenge and has lost five of last six to the Mavs and needs to show some defensive acumen to improve home record.
Hump Day Spotlights Ranked Teams
Other than Saturday, Wednesday is the most time-consuming and harried for the sports basketball bettor. Betting college basketball properly involves a great deal of time, as does looking thru a full slate of NBA encounters. Today we’ll focus on the four key games in college hoops pertaining to conference play.Villanova on historical pace
Last season’s trip to the Final Four helped bring Villanova back into the discussion about the best teams in college basketball. For an encore, coach Jay Wright’s team is trying to better that. The Wildcats 18-1 start (14-4 ATS) matches the record of a Villanova team from 59 years ago and they remain the only unbeaten club in the taxing Big East Conference at 7-0. Their lone defeat (75-65) was to fellow city member Temple back on Dec. 13 and that loss looks far better today with the Owls not having lost in A-10 action.
Villanova has racked up nine consecutive wins since then and is 10-3 ATS after three or more consecutive wins this season. Led by Scottie Reynolds, the Wildcats are tough, have great resolve and are a lot like another Philly icon from the movies, Rocky, who has to be knocked out in order to be defeated. There isn’t much this team doesn’t do right, shooting almost 47 percent, 38.4 percent from downtown and convert better than 75 percent from the charity stripe. When it comes to effort, they hold opposing teams to 39.5 percent shooting and out-rebound them by seven a game. No wonder they are 10-3 ATS off a game where they covered the spread this season.
DiamondSportsbook.com has Nova as 10.5-point home favorites, with total of 167 at the Wachovia Center. This is their second trip this season into this venue and Villanova is 12-4 ATS as a favorite and will have to deal with Luke Harangody of Notre Dame, the Big East’s leading scorer at 24.7 points a game. The Fighting Irish (15-5, 7-6-1 ATS) can match scores with Villanova, however is nowhere near as skilled defensively. Notre Dame is 4-13 ATS in road games versus good teams outscoring their opponents by four or more points a game over the last two seasons. ESPN has coverage at 7 Eastern.
Vandy is dandy
With top-ranked Kentucky suffering their first loss of the season, only one squad remains undefeated in the SEC, which is confounding Vanderbilt (15-3, 9-6 ATS). The Commodores have run off nine straight wins since losing to Illinois and Western Kentucky in the early days of December. Vanderbilt is 5-0 in the SEC for the first time in 44 years and is led by junior center A.J. Ogilvy. Vandy works the ball expertly to find quality shots and makes 49.7 of attempts as a team which explains 6-2 ATS record in this hot streak.
Laying in wait is ambitious in-state rival Tennessee (15-3, 8-7 ATS), who lost their first conference game at Georgia 78-63 this past Saturday. Coach Bruce Pearl knows Vanderbilt will play zone, daring his inconsistent three-point attack to beat them deep. The Tennessee fans will be in full throat as their team is 26-11 ATS at home games playing against a top-level team with a win percentage of 80 percent or higher. The Vols are 6.5-point favorites on ESPNU starting at 7 Eastern and the Vanderbilt guards will have to hold up to the pressure defense better than their predecessors, as they are 10-23 ATS in road games versus teams forcing 18 or more turnovers.
Blue Devils defense looks to respond again
Duke was upset last week at N.C. State 88-74, allowing the Wolfpack to make 58.2 percent of shots. It didn’t matter to coach Mike Krzyzewski if N.C. State was just having a hot shooting night, his team had to defend better and did they ever. At a hostile Clemson environment, they held the revenge-minded Tigers to 47 points on 37.5 percent shooting. Duke (16-3, 12-6 ATS) returns home where they score 91.6 points per game to face a Florida State (15-4, 4-10 ATS) squad that can also D-it up.
Coming into tonight, the Seminoles are the top-rated defense team in the country in field goal percentage at 35.5. Florida State (15-4, 4-10 ATS) is long and athletic, forcing 16.7 turnovers a game and almost seven rejections. What holds the Noles back from being elite team is perimeter shooting, which explains poor spread record this season. This is shown by Florida State having 2-9 ATS mark vs. defensive teams with shooting percentage defense of 42 percent or less this season.
Duke shoots over 50 percent on its home floor and remarkable 43.2 percent from beyond the arc, which in part is why oddsmakers have them as 13-point favorites with total of 140. The Dukies are 13-4 ATS at home when the total is 140 to 149.5; however are just 3-7 ATS in Durham against the Seminoles despite winning nine of 10. Dick Vitale will be singing the praises of Coach K and the Dukies starting at 9 Eastern.
Magical Mountain West matchup
Like the girl in last year’s KFC commercial, nobody saw two ranked teams from the Mountain West Conference squaring off in late January. BYU (20-1, 11-7 ATS) is led by point guard Jimmer Fredette, who continues to play heavy minutes in spite of battling the affects of mononucleosis. Fredette, besides being an excellent shooter is top notch passer to the Cougars big people. This is why they are shooting 50.7 percent from the field, fourth in the country. BYU is the last unbeaten club in the MWC and is 15-3 ATS in road games over the last two seasons.
New Mexico (18-3, 13-7 ATS) was the biggest pleasant surprise in the country this side of Syracuse back in December. Most believed the Lobos suffering back to back losses in the first part of January was the signal this team had overachieved and was headed back to where most expected them to be. However, coach Steve Alford’s squad has again proved the critics wrong with four consecutive W’s and they are 12-3 ATS in home games after three consecutive conference contests since 2006-07 campaign.
The line has jumped around, but presently the Lobos are favored by two-points and are 9-0 ATS after two straight wins by 15 points or more. New Mexico is 4-2 in conference and needs this win to keep title hopes alive. This matchup starts at 10 Eastern and is on the Mountain Network.
Bound for Glory Tuesday
After a couple of desultory days, got back to work with 3-0 Monday. For Tuesday have a sharp Top Trend in the NBA out West. Paul Buck is heating up in the NBA and has what he hopes is another winner for you today. Top quality systems are scarce today, however found one that is good just not up to out 80 percent standards. Good Luck
What I found today – Dallas opened as eight-point favorites against Milwaukee; however several sportsbooks have dropped the Mavs to 6.5-point faves with their 5-15 ATS home record. NBA bettors also haven’t been to keen on Warriors and Kings 221 total in Sacramento and most reporting stations have this one falling to 219.5.
Minnesota is off gut-wrenching one-point loss to Michigan State, nevertheless with its tremendous defense and long history of success at “The Barn”, the action has been on the Golden Gophers taking them from 10-point home favorites to 12 or 12.5.
In the ACC, the Miami and Maryland matchup has drawn the attention of total players, taking this one from opening 153.5 to 156 by afternoon to those East of the Mississippi River. Just the opposite of West Virginia at DePaul, as college hoops aficionados wonder who will score for the Blue Demons behind Will Walker, dropping the total from 126 to 122.5 at a few wagering outlets.
On the ice, despite losing four of last five, the Red Wings are a public betting favorite and have gone from -160 to -175 on the money, getting ready to host Phoenix. Maybe having won seven straight at “The Joe” over the Coyotes is influencing backers.
On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners
Free Basketball System -1) Play Against home teams like Ball State where the line is +3 to -3 off a cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog, with a winning percentage of between 40-49 percent on the season. This decent system is 57-20 ATS, 74 percent the last five years.
Free Basketball Trend -2) Golden State is 2-12 ATS in road games after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last contest, losing by 12.7 points per game.
Free Basketball Pick -3) Paul Buck had a winner last night and has won eight of his last 10 NBA plays and likes Milwaukee to cover the seven at Dallas.
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Trustworthy College Basketball Teams to Bet
All of us go thru our lives trying to find people and things we can depend on. If we go out to eat, we look to go to places where the food is good or trust the judgment of our friends, for a tasty meal. When we need services for cars, air-conditioning or heat and possibly appliances that breakdown, we want to be able to trust someone to fix the problem at a fair price.The same logic applies to sports betting. How often has anyone of us bet on a team maybe we don’t wager on a great deal, play them, lose the bet and forget about playing that team for an extended period because we’ve been burned by them? It happens to all of us making knee-jerk reactions, rightly or wrongly. We instead retreat back to situations or in this instance, teams we can trust.
With the college basketball season past the halfway point, we have enough games in the hopper to make observations about certain teams making them worthy of consideration for our wagering dollars or possibly not. We are aware what is true in sports wagering today, isn’t necessarily so in a week. Nevertheless, a collection of teams have been found to be trustworthy looking at two simple situations this season.
One such instance is teams off a spread loss. We all know you can’t win every bet and you have to play the percentages. One bad week does not a season make, but realistically, how many of us make a bet before the game thinking we are going to lose. When our wager goes south in the first 10 minutes, we have all said “I knew this was going to lose”, yet the fact remains we believed enough in the team to actually place the bet, thus we are being revisionists if nothing else.
Teams off a spread loss record (SU & ATS)
BYU 6-1, 5-1 ATS
Detroit 3-2, 5-0
Duke 6-0, 5-1
Georgetown 6-0, 4-1-1
Kansas 6-1, 4-1-1
Temple 6-1, 5-2
Valparaiso 4-2, 4-0-1
Xavier 6-1, 6-1
For the most part, the teams on this list have pedigree in terms of winning and expectations. Duke, Georgetown and Kansas are going to be somewhat overvalued by oddsmakers and when they come off a less than desirable result as a team and the perception of the head coach, they go right back to work and solve the issues. That is not to say these teams are going to make this group each year, rather, the group of individuals on this particular team is more adaptive, willing to listen to their coach, have team leaders and the talent to immediately improve and will likely get a somewhat fairer price labeled on them especially off a loss.
BYU and Xavier would also fit similar reasoning, just not being as public teams for the normal sports bettor.
Temple lost three very good players from last year’s team, however coach Fran Dunphy has elevated the Owls program thru recruiting to the point where they can reload as opposed to rebuild. Valparaiso is well coached by Homer Drew with limited talent, while Detroit is regaining status under second year coach Ray McCallum having the players buying into his system after being down for years.
The next grouping we seek is teams off a spread victory. Here the idea is to find teams that cover the number and continue to beat those setting the lines. For this contingent, we want to entrust teams that can build on momentum and have proven that they can cover the spread and one setback isn’t going to hold them back since they can climb right back in the saddle and win again and continue on.
Teams off a spread win record (SU & ATS)
Baylor 6-3, 5-2 ATS
Clemson 9-0, 6-1
College of Charleston 8-2, 6-2-1
Gonzaga 9-0, 6-2
Kansas State 9-1, 5-1
Morehead State 7-2, 5-1
Northeastern 10-1, 8-2-1
Siena 6-1, 5-0
South Florida 7-3, 7-2
Southern Miss 7-2, 5-1
St. Mary’s 11-2, 9-3
Syracuse 11-1, 8-3
Texas 8-0, 5-1
Villanova 13-0, 10-3
What’s not to like about these winners! Some of the very finest teams in the country are within this group and having seen many of them play; the ability is certainly there to continue winning ways, as long as the oddmakers don’t start adding too many points on their ledger. Whenever time is allotted to dig a little deeper, surprise teams always emerge. A Northeastern, picked to finish fifth in the Colonial Athletic Conference steps forward. Most basketball bettors are aware of Murray State from the Ohio Valley, but Morehead State led by possible OVC Player of the Rear Kenneth Faried, could be going back to NCAA Tournament after last season’s astonishing appearance.
We also find teams in this latter group that deserve their own special mention. These are true “under the radar” squads not gathering much attention, possibly a little hard to stomach, however their wagering results after a cover are tremendous in spite of sketchy SU records.
Teams off a spread win with unimpressive SU record (SU & ATS)
Drake 5-4, 6-1-1 ATS
Sacramento State 3-10, 8-3
Wyoming 2-6, 6-0
Drake is expediently acquiring notoriety and trust with 5-1 and 6-0 ATS mark in last six outings, all as underdogs. Sacramento State is being outscored by six points per game after a spread cover, which is great news since they have mostly received 10 or more points in putting together 7-14 campaign. The Hornets might be 3-14 as underdogs, but the cha-ching heard is 13-4 ATS record. Wyoming to is outscored after covering the number (3.3 PPG), nonetheless they must be being overlooked by Mountain West teams and others with 7-2 ATS mark as humble and profitable dogs.
It pays to go with things you can trust, even in college basketball betting.
Sports Bettors want a Super Tuesday
Two of the top five teams in the polls will be on the road and available for viewing this evening. No. 5 Michigan State travels to in-state rival Michigan for a tussle in the Wolverine State, while newly anointed No.1 Kentucky heads into hostile territory against South Carolina, who is off a crushing defeat. College basketball sports bettors are working feverishly to make this a Super Tuesday.Spartans claim Michigan as their state
Michigan State (17-3, 8-11 ATS) showed their true grit at Minnesota, finding a way to win 65-64, to run their record to 7-0 (5-2 ATS) in the Big 10. The Spartans despite shooting just 39.3 percent kept battling and nipped the Golden Gophers at the end. Michigan State has won 16 of last 19 games against Michigan (10-9 ATS) and coach Tom Izzo still carries the torch for Spartans fans to wallop the Wolverines. “I’m motivated by the fact that every alum in this country is motivated by it (beat Michigan),” Izzo said Monday. “I’m motivated by it because it stands in the way of us hopefully getting our goals at the end of the year.
The Spartans are 7-0 ATS off a close road win by three points or less, winning by 17.3 points per game.
Michigan’s overall season has been a massive disappointment in Ann Arbor at 10-9, with similar 8-7 ATS record. The Wolverines were believed to be primed to make the NCAA Tournament for a second straight year after an 11-year drought, however, with a pedestrian record and just two noteworthy wins over Ohio State and Connecticut (both at Crisler Arena), it’s a call to action for Michigan. Coach John Beilein looks at the rest of the season this way, “You got to go on a big string at the end of the year or you have to peak at tournament time and win the tournament.
“Those are our two options right now.” The Wolverines are 9-2 ATS in home games after a conference game over the last two seasons.
Bookmaker.com has Michigan as 4.5-point home underdogs with total of 131, with team suffering from unrest. The Wolverines have lost last two games at Wisconsin and at Purdue, the latter without star guard Manny Harris after a one-game suspension for an undisclosed incident in Friday’s practice. Michigan is 9-1 ATS after playing two consecutive games as an underdog since last season and forward DeShawn Sims said the team was “back to normal,” after the suspension. Michigan State is 8-1 ATS as a road favorite of six points or less or pick, however is 2-15 ATS as a visitor after playing a game as a road underdog.
ESPN has the coverage at 7 Eastern and Meechigan has covered four in a row overall.
Top team hits the road
John Calipari may be lugging around excess baggage from a couple of his stops, however two elements about him are absolutely true, he can recruit and he can coach. Since the new year, Kentucky (19-0, 9-8 ATS) has faced a number of challenges home and away and at every critical juncture of these games, the Wildcats never gulped and met adversity head on to emerge victorious. Opponents have started gearing defenses to corral John Wall and take away either Patrick Patterson or DeMarcus Cousins. Nonetheless, an Eric Bledsoe or Daniel Orton comes in and provides the necessary lift for a team. The Wildcats ambushed Arkansas Saturday 101-70 in a home game that wasn’t that close and they are 9-2 ATS on the road after playing a game as a home favorite.
South Carolina (11-8, 7-9 ATS) has been a mild disappointment and losing two returning starters hasn’t helped. (Injury and suspension) The cure turns out be the great equalizer, scoring machine Devan Downey. The senior guard has been outstanding all season and evidently saved his best for last, being unstoppable in SEC action (31.6 points per game). Coach Darrin Horn had to retool his squad and focused on defense and rebounding in the frontcourt to take some of the pressure off Downey. The Gamecocks have to slow down Kentucky since they are 1-9 ATS at the Colonial Center vs. good offensive teams averaging 77 or more points.
South Carolina has to regroup after a heart-breaking last second loss at Florida 58-56, in which Downey drained 36 points. The Gamecocks are a lengthy seven-point home underdog and are 8-1 ATS off two straight losses against conference rivals over the last three seasons. Top-ranked Kentucky is 10-2 and 8-4 ATS roll in Columbia and is 9-2 ATS on the road playing only their second contest in eight days since last season.
This SEC showdown is set for 9 Eastern on ESPN, with South Carolina 0-7 all time taking on No.1.
Oh how the mighty have fallen
North Carolina (12-7, 6-11 ATS) has been an 8.5-point or more favorite over N.C. State (13-7,10-7-1 ATS) in last seven meetings, but tonight they might be a generous two-point choice in Raleigh against Wolfpack team that actually has better record. The Tar Heels will look to avoid a fourth consecutive defeat and are 9-3 SU and ATS at N.C. State.
Time to start winning streak this Monday
Got whacked good yesterday and look to rebound in a hurry. Paul Buck has a Free Play in the NBA. The Top Trend is perfect and involves one of the Big Monday games. The Best System is 84.4 percent, but you will want to read more. Good Luck
What I thought yesterday – Though the San Diego Chargers have enjoyed success against the Indianapolis Colts the last decade, the fundamental difference in the coaching philosophies has been on display the last two weeks. The Colts have coaches that can isolate and fix a problem, in this case, the New York Jets blitzing defense, and make it work in their favor. As seen, New York picked up right where they left off against San Diego, sacking Peyton Manning for losses the first two series. However, OC Tom Moore, Manning and OL coach Howard Mudd made quick and effective adjustments, which allowed the Colts to take over the game.
As expected, Darrelle Revis took Reggie Wayne out the game and New York had a solid game plan for Dallas Clark. Instead, Indy started shortening routes and made the Jets secondary start chasing diagonal patterns across the field. Manning started doing more three-step drops and getting rid of the ball, something the Chargers never did.
The offensive line went from man on man passing blocking to more a zone wall, being able to catch or knock off Jets pass-rushers with greater effectiveness. Spreading the Jets defense out more effectively allowed running lanes for Indianapolis running backs. In the end absolutely outstanding in-game adjustments which set up the Colts for a chance to win another Super Bowl.
I’ve read more than few comments from Packers fans relishing Brett Favre’s untimely interception and while I agree as does Favre it was unfortunate throw, the entire Minnesota offense has to be held accountable for their failure to advance.
Simple-minded announcers will point to the fact that statistics lie when determining the outcome of some contests, but this game couldn’t be accurate from the handicapping perspective about the outcome.
First downs – Minnesota 31-15
Total yards – Minnesota 475-257
Rushing yards – Minnesota 165-68
Penalties- New Orleans (9-88) Minnesota (5-32)
Turnovers – Minnesota 5 to 1
Troy Aikman – Ending words with - in’ (ex. - tacklin’), lost track after 50 in the third quarter, sorry, had nothing to do with outcome.
I thought Adrian Peterson would have a big day, but his reckless style of running killed Minnesota. FOX had a number of great replays that showed when A.P. is cutting, juking or just trying to get into open space; the ball separates from his body, letting him become an easy target.
You can knock Favre, but if the other Vikings players do their job throughout the game, or the mix up on the previous play with 12 men on the field hadn’t cost Minnesota five yards, where a running play could have still been in order for field under 50 yards, who knows. I’m not a Favre apologist, I’ve been as tough on him as anyone for all his antics the last several years, but I admired his courage, since I don’t think many quarterbacks could have taken the punishment he did and still finish the game, let alone having a chance to win in OT.
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Free Basketball System -1) Play On a good shooting team like Denver (45.5-47.5 percent) against an average defensive team (43.5-45.5 percent) past the midpoint of the season, after three straight games attempting 10 or more free throws than opponent. I really like this 27-5 ATS system, however no Carmelo at least has me leery.
Free Basketball Trend -2) Kansas is 11-0 ATS playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games over the last two seasons, winning by 14.5 points a contest.
Free Basketball Pick -3) Paul Buck presumes Utah will continue to play well and Phoenix will keep playing lousy.
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Missouri and Kansas Clash in Border War
Missouri was chosen as the seventh best team in the Big 12 before the season and early on that figure was befitting of their play. Yet, as the team worked together, they developed chemistry and all the hard work is paying off having won 10 of 11 (5-2 ATS). Last season’s Elite Eight club suffered key losses, but that experience taught the returning players about what it takes to play at high level. The Tigers (15-4, 8-5 ATS) mentally grinding pressure makes them 16-6 ATS versus offensive teams like Kansas scoring 77 or more points a game, including 6-0 against the spread this season.The loss to Tennessee might have been a good thing for Kansas (18-1, 8-7-1 ATS), as players and coaches were able to get back on the same page. The Jayhawks are as talented as any team in the land and all players that see major minutes have aspirations of playing at the next level, which can become a distraction for coaches. Bill Self has stressed the importance of playing for each other and winning the Big 12, earning No. 1 seed, which allows the other aspects to take care of themselves. Kansas is sick 17-3-1 ATS playing against a team with a winning record past the midpoint of the regular season the last two years.
DiamondSportsbook.com has Kansas listed as 12-point home favorites with total of 150, which works out to projected score of 81-69, which sounds off since Missouri averages 81.6 points per contest, however their point total falls off on the road where they’ve scored 70.9 PPG in seven road conflicts.
Missouri is 13-3 ATS having won two of their last three games since last season and is 6-0 ATS after playing a home game this year. The Tigers have to be aggressive and look to force their 20.9 turnovers per game, which is the best in the country. Misso is 11-2 OVER as a road underdog or pick the last three seasons.
Since losing to the Vols, the Jayhawks have won four in a row (2-1-1 ATS) and one player in particular is returning to his old form. Center Cole Aldrich has faced several issues of late, including dealing with the loss of his grandmother last week and he bounced back with his first double-double since Jan. 2 at Iowa State Saturday. “It just feels good to be back,” Aldrich said. “I’ve been through a lot of stuff. It’s tough and it weighs on me, but I’m just going out and giving it my heart.” The Tigers are 11-2 ATS after playing a road game and are 13-4 UNDER off a win against a conference rival since last year.
Jayhawks are laudable 10-1 and 6-4-1 ATS in Missouri’s last 11 visits to Lawrence and this Border War begins at approximately 9 Eastern on ESPN.
Hoyas and Orangemen in Big East Bash
This is one of the storied rivalries from the Big East and it plays on in upstate New York. For Georgetown (15-3, 8-6 ATS), patience is truly a virtue. The Hoyas are at their best when the offense runs thru center Greg Monroe. The sophomore has displayed an acute awareness of how to play the game since arriving on campus and besides his ability to score, rebound and play defense, he has the knack of finding open shooters. He’s contributed assists to Austin Freeman and Chris Wright when they had career games this season. To the chagrin of backers, Monroe and mates are 5-10-1 ATS in January games over the last two seasons.Syracuse (19-1, 12-4 ATS) hosted maddening Marquette on Saturday holding them off 76-71 as 8.5-point favorites and have quick turnaround for this battle. Besides the surprise element this team has produced, the Orangemen have been remarkably consistent, with very few valleys for coach Jim Boeheim. Wes Johnson has been a big reason for this, providing double-double’s most nights or close to it. Rick Jackson and Arinze Onuaku both do excellent work on the low boxes, which frees up visual lanes for shooters like Andy Rautins. In spite of distinguished record at the Carrier Dome, Syracuse is 13-23 ATS at home facing teams with win percentage of 80 or higher.
DiamondSportsbook.com has the Orangemen as six-point favorites with total of 146 and Syracuse has covered 12 of its last 16 home games. The Orangemen are the best shooting team in the country at 53.4 percent and drain 38.9 percent from beyond the three point line. This Syracuse club is more athletic and does an outstanding job in its 2-3 zone limiting teams to 37.6 percent from the field and is 10-4 ATS this season off a victory.
Georgetown is no slouch offensively, converting on 49.7 percent from the field and nailing 39.9 percent behind the arc. They shot 63 percent Saturday against Rutgers in 88-63 rout as 19.5-point home favorites, which was their fifth highest shooting percentage in 13 years. The Hoyas get the job done with greater effectiveness if Wright is scoring, since they don’t have a number of dependable scorers like the Orange.
Monday night brings out different variables for both teams, with G-Town 4-10 against the spread on this day of the week. They Hoyas are 6-1 UNDER on Monday’s while Syracuse is 8-3 UNDER, making the total worth noting.
The Orangemen are 8-1 and 6-3 ATS in previous nine home outings against G-Town.
This Big East battle begins at 7 Eastern on ESPN.
All Systems Go for NBA Monday
On a busy night for sports bettors in professional basketball, five matchups in particular standout, given specific situations on the sides and totals. Take a hard look at these systems before making a decision on what looks best on the NBA board to start another week of wagering. Numbers from DiamondSportsbook.com.Indiana (+4.5, 206) at Philadelphia
The Pacers headed down a very familiar path, losing a lot of basketball games. Indiana has dropped four of last five, as even their offense is failing them, averaging 95.8 points per game compared to season average of 99. Having lost by 10 points at home to the Sixers Saturday, they turn right around and face them again in Philly. Teams that have played five or more consecutive Unders, averaging 98-102 points per contest, against an ordinary offensive team (92-98 PPG) are 5-23 ATS the last five seasons.
Cleveland (-1, 190) at Miami
The Cavaliers have won four in a row, including a pair of narrow wins over the Lakers and Oklahoma City. Cleveland ranks 13th in points scored at 100.9 PPG, however, pedestrian offensive teams (98-102 PPG) facing other teams that allow 92-98 points a contest, after two wins by six or fewer points are 33-64 ATS the last 14 years.
Orlando (+1, 204.5) at Memphis
The Orlando Magic after losing last three games of their recent road trip have come back to win take a trio of contests by 10 points or more. Orlando is seventh in points surrendered at 96.2 per game and visits a Memphis squad that 24th defensively in conceding 103.9 PPG. These factors set up a total situation that reads this way. Play Over when the total is 200 to 209.5, with one team permitting 92-98 PPG, against a lousy defensive team (102 or more PPG), after two straight wins by 10 points or more. (25-7 L5Y)
Atlanta (+1, 197) at Houston
The Rockets have not been firing correctly in 2010, winning just four of 10 tries and costing backers dearly with 2-8 ATS mark. Their record has fallen to 24-19 and home teams where the line is +3 to -3, after failing to cover four of their last five against the spread, with winning percentage between 51 and 60 percent, are 9-32 ATS since 2005.
Phoenix (+6.5, 221.5) at Utah
The Suns (26-19) and Jazz (25-18) have similar records, with Phoenix having lost five of last seven and Utah hitting the right notes having emerged victorious six of last seven games. Though the Jazz are vastly superior defensive team (97 vs 107.4 points allowed) oddsmakers see Phoenix dictating the tempo with predicted total. In this case, Play Over when the total is greater than or equal to 210, in a game involving two marginal winning teams, with record falling into 51 to 60 percent. (32-8 L5Y)
Scintillating Sunday
Playing against what will be the No. 1 team in the country tomorrow was not a trepidant idea; nevertheless it was the best system which led to 1-2 day. Today, we look to bounce back with 32-8 hockey system along with an excellent NBA Top Trend. Felt sorry for Sal, at least from our perspective, since he was 8-1 yesterday, but his top play was a loser. Ken likes the total in one of the NFL games today. Good Luck
What I thought last yesterday – Clark Kellogg was harping on Texas not playing well offensively for their reasons for losing. While there is truth in that, the fact remains in watching them, the Longhorns do a poor job in stopping dribble penetration off the wings and allow entry passes into the post (within seven of the basket) way to easily. Personally, I think the defense, not the offense is what needs more attention.
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Free Hockey System -1) Play Against all teams against the money line like Carolina playing their third game in five days, a terrible team (30 percent or less win percentage), playing a team with a losing record in the second half of the season. The NHL system is 32-8 and even 80 percent.
Free Basketball Trend -2) The L.A. Lakers are 11-1 ATS in road games versus defensive teams allowing 103 or points a game in the second half of the season over the last three years.
Free Football Pick -3) Ken of the LCC is 6-1 in the NFL Playoffs and has the Under in Jets and Colts today.
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Vikings at Saints Preview
Brett Favre vs. Drew Brees. That sets the stage for what should be a highly entertaining NFC Championship encounter. In interviews this week, both quarterbacks have expressed the belief they were destined to be on these particular teams after believing they were no longer wanted by a previous employer.Favre has enjoyed the ride this season, being in a place we wanted after rightfully or wrongly feeling his services were no longer required in Green Bay after losing NFC title game two years ago. Whether it’s the motivation of winning another Super Bowl and going out on top like John Elway did (something he’s always craved) or sticking it to the Packers organization, or both, the 40-year old quarterback has played with a sense of urgency, knowing his football clock is ticking.
Brees left San Diego with the organization believing they could not be a consistent winner with the former Purdue quarterback. However, Brees signed with New Orleans became a huge part of a community that suffered unfathomable strife from Hurricane Katrina and found the right coach who could develop his abilities and bring out the creative aspects of his game.
Minnesota (13-4, 10-6-1 ATS) is 3.5-point underdog with total of 53.5, which is the highest since Atlanta and Minnesota in 1999 title tilt (55). The Vikings were 8-4-1 ATS against the NFC this year and as important as Favre is, Adrian Peterson could well be the most important player for the Vikings in this contest. A.P. has gone eight games without busting past 100 yards rushing and most believe it’s because the offense is more based around No. 4 and he has audibled out of a good number of running plays this season. Talking to a scout who watches film on all NFL teams, he’s noted Peterson has been less patient in following blocks this season, often making poor decisions trying to break longer runs.
Minnesota would be foolish to not give Peterson a large number of carries against a defense that surrenders 4.6 yards per carry. Peterson can’t get caught up in the emotion of the moment and forget ball protection (six lost fumbles this year) in trying to make 50-yard run when four or five is all he can get. Peterson and Chester Taylor have to think averages against the Saints. Two runs means third and one giving Favre lots of options against New Orleans defense.
Given the listed total, this is presumed to be a touchdown game. Favre will have his work cut out for him since New Orleans (14-3, 9-8 ATS) had the NFL’s best red zone pass defense. This is where clever play calling and execution is tantamount for club that is 7-15 ATS against teams with winning home record.
If the Vikings can’t generate the same pass rush as they did against Dallas (three of the four D-linemen missed two practices this week), the “Who Dat” talk will begin early. Brees has more weapons of mass destruction than Iraq ever had. Minnesota has their best cover corner Antoine Winfield hobbling; mainly playing slot receivers in the nickel and rookie middle linebacker Jasper Brinkley can be influenced by the flow of the play and taken out of position. The Saints are 10-2-1 ATS after covering the spread and will attack the Vikings at their weakest points.
In reviewing New Orleans this season two aspects standout when they play their best. The Saints are able to run the ball and they use Jeremy Shockey a lot in the first 20 minutes. That’s not to say Brees can’t have a big game using other players, however peak effectiveness has occurred when this pattern is established.
The Saints offensive line had problems with the Cowboys pass rush when they suffered their first defeat of the season, which they can’t allow the league’s top sacking unit to have the same type of success or they lose fourth game in last five and end the season 1-6 ATS in final seven contests.
New Orleans has lost and failed to cover last four meetings vs. Minnesota, with each going Over the total. The Saints are 11-3 OVER off a home win over the last three seasons while Minny is 7-0 UNDER in road games after a win by 14 or more points during the same time span.
For believers of fate, watch the outcome of Colts game, since the last seven times the two top seeds have played in Conference Championship contests, not once have both advanced to the game with roman numerals.
Brees left San Diego with the organization believing they could not be a consistent winner with the former Purdue quarterback. However, Brees signed with New Orleans became a huge part of a community that suffered unfathomable strife from Hurricane Katrina and found the right coach who could develop his abilities and bring out the creative aspects of his game.
Minnesota (13-4, 10-6-1 ATS) is 3.5-point underdog with total of 53.5, which is the highest since Atlanta and Minnesota in 1999 title tilt (55). The Vikings were 8-4-1 ATS against the NFC this year and as important as Favre is, Adrian Peterson could well be the most important player for the Vikings in this contest. A.P. has gone eight games without busting past 100 yards rushing and most believe it’s because the offense is more based around No. 4 and he has audibled out of a good number of running plays this season. Talking to a scout who watches film on all NFL teams, he’s noted Peterson has been less patient in following blocks this season, often making poor decisions trying to break longer runs.
Minnesota would be foolish to not give Peterson a large number of carries against a defense that surrenders 4.6 yards per carry. Peterson can’t get caught up in the emotion of the moment and forget ball protection (six lost fumbles this year) in trying to make 50-yard run when four or five is all he can get. Peterson and Chester Taylor have to think averages against the Saints. Two runs means third and one giving Favre lots of options against New Orleans defense.
Given the listed total, this is presumed to be a touchdown game. Favre will have his work cut out for him since New Orleans (14-3, 9-8 ATS) had the NFL’s best red zone pass defense. This is where clever play calling and execution is tantamount for club that is 7-15 ATS against teams with winning home record.
If the Vikings can’t generate the same pass rush as they did against Dallas (three of the four D-linemen missed two practices this week), the “Who Dat” talk will begin early. Brees has more weapons of mass destruction than Iraq ever had. Minnesota has their best cover corner Antoine Winfield hobbling; mainly playing slot receivers in the nickel and rookie middle linebacker Jasper Brinkley can be influenced by the flow of the play and taken out of position. The Saints are 10-2-1 ATS after covering the spread and will attack the Vikings at their weakest points.
In reviewing New Orleans this season two aspects standout when they play their best. The Saints are able to run the ball and they use Jeremy Shockey a lot in the first 20 minutes. That’s not to say Brees can’t have a big game using other players, however peak effectiveness has occurred when this pattern is established.
The Saints offensive line had problems with the Cowboys pass rush when they suffered their first defeat of the season, which they can’t allow the league’s top sacking unit to have the same type of success or they lose fourth game in last five and end the season 1-6 ATS in final seven contests.
New Orleans has lost and failed to cover last four meetings vs. Minnesota, with each going Over the total. The Saints are 11-3 OVER off a home win over the last three seasons while Minny is 7-0 UNDER in road games after a win by 14 or more points during the same time span.
For believers of fate, watch the outcome of Colts game, since the last seven times the two top seeds have played in Conference Championship contests, not once have both advanced to the game with roman numerals.
Jets at Colts Preview
Normally this time of year in professional football, everyone is talking about how important quarterback play is and how the teams matchup. Well, New Yorkers are often known for their bravado and as it turns out the Jets have the perfect coach to make believers out of the players and fans alike. Rex Ryan may not understand the mathematical workings of the NFL playoff system (after losing to Atlanta he said his team had almost no chance to make the postseason) but he’s able to rally the troops with the familiar “us against the world” refrain, used expertly by his father Buddy Ryan and George Allen before him.It’s the clichéd “respect card” that has been reformulated in green and white by coach Ryan, winning seven of last eight (7-1 ATS) which has his players believing him like the pied piper. Ryan’s conviction had him making comments like New York should be favored for the Super Bowl and his logic is correct based on statistical information.
The Jets (11-7 SU & ATS) have the best defense in the NFL and attack opposing quarterbacks like a siege of numerous battalions. While seven or sometimes eight Jets are on the fly, a confident group of pass defenders led by Darelle Revis back them up. The Flyboys cornerback sticks to receivers better than Super Glue and helps the secondary provide better coverage than Safe Auto’s Justin Case. New York is 8-2 ATS on the road against teams with winning home record.
New York also runs the ball better than anyone in the NFL averaging 172 yards per game. Between the defense and running game that is the foundation of Ryan’s belief system, OC Brian Shottenheimer is on a roll as play-caller, protecting Mark Sanchez and calling the right plays which the Jets have been able to execute.
The Indianapolis Colts organization is completely different. They give away undefeated season in hopes of winning a bigger prize. The Colts (15-2, 11-6 ATS) let their play on field do the talking, however don’t for second think they haven’t been listening to all the huffing and puffing coming out of the Big Apple. A person not familiar with professional football might surmise the Jets are the favored and better team by reading newspaper and online accounts of the AFC Championship. Indianapolis has been to a Super Bowl in the last 39 years and actually won something, New York can’t make the same claim. The Colts have to be simmering in listening to all the talk.
DiamondSportsbook.com has Indianapolis as eight-point favorites with total of 40 and they are 8-2 ATS after one or more consecutive wins against the spread this season. Home favorites of seven to nine points in conference championships are 11-3 ATS in last 14 outings. While Peyton Manning will be blitzed extensively, he’s arguably the smartest quarterback in the game. His impeccable film study allows him to find and edge or two against any defense.
Expect the Colts to test Revis early with Reggie Wayne. Though Revis has stopped virtually every top receiver he has faced this season, Wayne is slightly different type of pass catcher, not a home run threat per se, his real expertise is running crossing routes, which is more difficult for any defender to cover. The Jets safeties are average in pass coverage and Indy won’t make the same mistake San Diego did with Antonio Gates. Because a tight end is often the hot read in blitzes, Dallas Clark will shorten his routes and with film study, see were the weakness are in the Jets secondary, look for him to have big game for Colts who have covered last four games as 3.5 to 10-point favorites.
The Colts defensive run numbers are not imposing; however they only allowed 17.7 points a game a Lucas Oil Stadium this season. Their goal is to force third down and five and longer all day long.
Sanchez has played better in each of two playoff games, but can his teammates protect from being too excited being 60 minutes away from Super Bowl? The offensive line will gain rushing yards with Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene toting the pigskin, the question is can they score once on the Indianapolis side of the field. Gang Green is a splendid 7-3 SU and ATS on the road and riding the crest of emotion. New York’s defense will look to stone a meager Colts running game and try to contain Wayne and Clark and smack around young receivers Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon, causing them to lose concentration in the moment to stall Indy’s offense.
This game has Under written all over it and the line has dropped precipitously from opening 41points. The Colts are 37-21 UNDER when they rush for 50 to 75 yards, which is a distinct possibility and the Jets are 22-9 UNDER in road games vs. good passing teams averaging seven or more passing yards per attempt. A system to consider is playing on home teams when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points and they out-score opponents by seven or more points a game, after allowing nine points or less last game. (29-8)
Super Saturday, I hope?
Let’s start the day with an excellent system that plays out in the SEC and is 33-6 against the spread. Let’s follow that up with a perfect trend in the ACC. Then let’s polish it off with a piping hot sports bettor in college basketball with his top play of the day. Good Luck
What I thought last night – My basketball plays this season have been like one-legged man in an ass kicking contest. Wow has it been dreadful, looking for huge day today.
On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners
Free Basketball System -1) Play Against favorites of 10 to 19.5 points like Kentucky after eight or more consecutive wins with a win percentage over 80 percent, playing a marginal losing team (40% to 49%). This awesome system is 33-6 ATS, 84.6 percent the last five seasons, including perfect 4-0 this year.
Free Basketball Trend -2) The Maryland Terps are 12-0 ATS in home games after a game with 51 or more rebounds, winning by over 20 points per game.
Free Basketball Pick -3) Sal, unlike yours truly is 20-5 in college hoops for his last 25 plays and is on Nevada.
Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right.
What I thought last night – My basketball plays this season have been like one-legged man in an ass kicking contest. Wow has it been dreadful, looking for huge day today.
On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners
Free Basketball System -1) Play Against favorites of 10 to 19.5 points like Kentucky after eight or more consecutive wins with a win percentage over 80 percent, playing a marginal losing team (40% to 49%). This awesome system is 33-6 ATS, 84.6 percent the last five seasons, including perfect 4-0 this year.
Free Basketball Trend -2) The Maryland Terps are 12-0 ATS in home games after a game with 51 or more rebounds, winning by over 20 points per game.
Free Basketball Pick -3) Sal, unlike yours truly is 20-5 in college hoops for his last 25 plays and is on Nevada.
Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right.
Saturday College Buckets
Men’s college basketball takes over on Saturday’s for the next several months with a boatload of action for sports bettors and those that like to handicap. The coverage is coast to coast and goes from morning until past midnight depending on your location. CBS Sports has a Big Ten battle and two interesting non-conference clashes. ESPN has its usual Big East confrontation early in the day and a top shelf ACC encounter in prime time. This week we also take a look at an unusual matchup in the Colonial Conference, with one team expected to contend and another trying to work its way up. It promises to be a super way to enjoy a Saturday. Lines courtesy of Bookmaker.com. (Note: Though childish, take a look where Duke player's left foot is. He probably left the Wake Forest player with a pair of blue devils)Michigan State at Minnesota (-2,138.5) 12:00E CBS
Kudos to coach Tom Izzo, understanding his team and the chemistry involved after finishing runner up for the national championship. Michigan State (16-3, 7-11 ATS) was lacking a spark early in the year, as several of last year’s players had not shown improvement. Izzo witnessed sophomore forward Draymond Green was his most consistent player, but felt he might get lost as a starter. Instead, Izzo made Green his sixth man, which has light a fire for the Spartans virtually every game he’s entered. Green rebounds, blocks shots, creates steals and scores, making him an instant success every time he hits the floor. The Spartans are 18-7-2 ATS on the road off of three straight home games.
Minnesota (12-6, 9-8 ATS) has played frenetic defense all season, holding teams to 38.5 percent shooting, something you would expect from a Tubby Smith coach squad. It’s never flashy, but extremely frustrating for opponents trying to find open shots and passing lanes. Minny is 8-1 ATS at home when opponents convert 31 to 37 percent of three’s. The Golden Gophers have been bolstered on offense with Blake Hoffarber who has regained his shooting touch, especially from beyond the arc. He and Lawrence Westbrook will need big games to slow down Spartans.
The Spartans are 7-3 SU at “The Barn”, with 5-3-2 ATS record.
Villanova at St. John’s (+6.148.5) 12:00E ESPN
Though seldom mentioned with the coaching elites, it’s time Jay Wright starts getting his props nationally as one of the finest coaches in college basketball. He recruits young men with a certain type of work ethic, they leave Villanova (17-1, 13-4 ATS) a far better player than when they arrived and as any opposing coach will honestly admit, watching film on Nova is a treat with the intensity and execution they play with. Senior Scottie Reynolds is the tougher than nails leader who gives the Wildcats a chance to win each time out. Villanova is 8-2 ATS against teams with winning record.
This was supposed to be the year. Coach Norm Roberts had preached patience as he collected more talent for St. John’s (12-6, 8-6-1 ATS) and this season the Red Storm were to move up the Big East pecking order. With a number of good non-conference outings, expectations were percolating, however a 0-3 start turned the attention on Roberts and where the program is truly headed. St. John’s players openly have questioned each other’s commitment to winning, which meant unless they can made something positive happen immediately, it was setting up to be another sorry season for the Johnnies. The St. John’s have responded by winning two of last three and upset of Villanova could be a signature win. The Red Storm is 13-3 ATS on playing on Saturday’s.
Villanova has won seven of last eight (6-2 ATS) encounters.
Ohio State at West Virginia (-6,133) 2:00E CBS
The Buckeyes (14-5, 10-9 ATS) takes a break from Big Ten action to make the trek to Morgantown. Ohio State has responded with playing better basketball with the return of their best player Evan Turner. His inspired play has led to the Buckeyes playing better a team, with each teammate being back in their role before Turner suffered back injury. Coach Thad Matta has been tinkering with different defenses and his skill will be called into question against diverse West Virginia squad. The Buckeyes are 82-35 ATS when they make 47 to 53 percent of shots attempts.
The Mountaineers (14-3, 6-10 ATS) have proven two things this season, when they come prepared to play, they are Top 10 team and when they don’t they are as beatable as any other college basketball squad. Coach Bob Huggins demands defensive intensity and when West Virginia players deliver, the offense works much more fluidly. After losing to Purdue earlier, West Virginia has opportunity to extract Big Ten revenge on the Buckeyes. The ‘Teers are 21-10 ATS vs. teams who attempt 21 or more three-point shots a game on the season after 15 or more contests.
West Virginia is 10-3 after a victory with 4-8 ATS mark. Ohio State is 11-1 UNDER against the Big East.
Texas at Connecticut (+3, 147) 4:00E CBS
No one can claim this talent-laden Texas (17-1, 8-6 ATS) team has taken the easy way out scheduling wise this season. Besides playing in the arduous Big 12, the Longhorns have gone out of their way to take on some the best schools from the top conferences and will again to play Connecticut. The Texas roster is a puzzle for opposing coaches to figure out. Focus on Damion James and Dexter Pittman and Avery Bradley or Gary Johnson can carve an opponent up. The other aspect that shines thru, the Horns players seem to genuinely enjoying playing with one another and share the glory. Texas is 14-0 and 8-2 ATS in non-conference games this campaign.
Evidently Big East play isn’t challenging enough for Connecticut (12-6, 6-9-1 ATS), they have to find a team that is one of the finest in the country to break up the conference slate. All kidding aside, coach Jim Calhoun ( now on medical leave) has played encounters like this the last several years as a refocusing distraction, to test the mental awareness of his players with February not far away. For the most part, the Huskies have played about as expected; nonetheless having Ater Majok and Charles Okwandu elevate their play improves UConn considerably. Connecticut is 16-8 ATS in January games since 2007.
Texas comes to Connecticut off its first loss of the season and hasn’t played well this month, with 0-5 spread record and barely beating Texas A&M CC 76-70. The Longhorns are 1-9-1 against clubs with a winning home record. The Huskies are 9-3 in non-conference action, with sordid 2-8 ATS record.
Old Dominion at William & Mary (+4.5,125) 7:00E WSKY
The standings in the Colonial Conference have many of the usual suspects, however one is different. William & Mary (14-4, 9-4-1 ATS) has been hanging around the upper echelons of the league this season, with coach Tony Shaver’s club displaying supreme confidence. Point guard Quinn McDowell has been the catalyst, playing close to mistake-free as the Tribe has the fewest turnovers in the conference. William & Mary’s confidence comes from how they have played on road where they are 7-3 and 7-2 ATS. Off their defeat at Virginia Commonwealth, the Tribe is 7-1 ATS following a SU loss.
Old Dominion (15-5, 6-9-1 ATS) was the preseason pick to win the Colonial and they look the part in a three-way tied for first place. The Monarchs play superior defense like always (55.5 points per game) and are the league’s top rebounding team. Though the season has gone well, coach Blaine Taylor made a lineup switch, putting guard Kent Bazemore into the starting lineup and the results have been fantastic. At 6’4, Bazemore gives ODU more size in the backcourt and his length creates defensive issues for smaller opponents. The Monarchs are 11-3 off a SU win, with underwhelming 4-7 ATS mark this season, which reflects the past since they are 8-20 ATS after a triumph.
Old Dominion is 8-4 and 7-5 ATS at the Williamsburg, VA campus and the visiting team has covered five in a row.
Duke at Clemson (+1,146) 9:00E ESPN
You can bet coach Mike Krzyzewski has worked Duke extra hard in preparation for prime time affair at Clemson. Coach K remembers firsthand how the Tigers can play at Littlejohn Coliseum, losing 74-47 their last year. He’s also seen what Clemson did to North Carolina, building 20-point lead in the first eight minutes of the game and cruising to victory over the Tar Heels. That is why the play of guard Jon Scheyer is so critical, keeping Duke (15-3, 11-6 ATS) from playing at too frenzied a pace. The Dukies are 8-19 ATS in road games vs. clubs outscoring their opponents by 12 or more points a game after 15 or more tries.
Backed with its home crowd, the Tigers memories are fresh from being embarrassed at Duke on Jan. 3, losing 74-53, totaling just 12 points in the first 20 minutes. Senior forward Trevor Booker is the energy of this team and its most important player. When Clemson (15-4, 9-7 ATS) has to set up offense, allowing Booker to at least touch the ball, good things usually follow. He’s skilled around the basket and finds open shooters off the bounce. Unquestionably, the Tigers play better at home and they are 21-10 ATS when they force 14 to 18 turnovers.
Duke is off upset loss at N.C. State and looks for quick turnaround victory, since they are 5-0 and 4-1 ATS after a spread loss in lined games. Clemson is 9-1 and 6-1 ATS on their home floor and last year’s win at home was the first in 10 vs. Duke, with 4-5-1 ATS record.
Young NBA teams earning respect
Twenty-six NBA teams will be in action this Friday night, however two matchups stand out which won’t get the lion’s share of wagering dollars. The reason is these are not public teams, instead from medium sized markets (except for one) and mostly having a history of professional basketball failure or little history at all. Charlotte heads south to take on division rival Atlanta and Oklahoma City travels to the mid-south to tackle Memphis.Atlanta looks to not get tangled in Charlotte’s web
To use a little Stu Scott speak in talking about Larry Brown, the Bobcats head coach, “The man may drive a U-Haul as his top rig with all the stops he’s made, but the dude can still coach”. Since Charlotte was again awarded a NBA franchise, they have been more beatable than a piñata. That was until the oft-traveled Brown found his dream job (for the 10th time) in the middle of North Carolina.
The Bobcats (21-19, 25-15 ATS) are on the prowl and suddenly dangerous having tied a franchise record with six consecutive wins (4-2 ATS), all at Time Warner Cable Arena. There is nothing fluky about Charlotte winning either, with average margin of victory 15.5 points per game. Brown’s Bobcats are 9-1 since 2010 arrived. “I can’t explain this,” coach Brown said. “Guys are playing at a high level.”
Charlotte is a 6.5-point underdog at DiamondSportsbook.com and is 11-3 ATS after playing a game as a home favorite this season, as they prepare for Southeast Division leader Atlanta (27-14 SU and ATS). The Hawks have been solid all year and have won six of last eight (5-3 ATS). Atlanta is well aware of how Charlotte is playing.
“They’re playing extremely well from a defensive standpoint so we’ll be tested without a doubt,” coach Mike Woodson said. “We’ll see where we stand from a defensive standpoint because they’ve got three, four guys that can really score the basketball and Jackson coming over from Golden State has really helped their ballclub.” The Bobcats are first in fewest points allowed in the NBA (92.2) and fourth in field goal defense (44.1).
Atlanta is seeking a quality 4-1 homestand, before heading out of town to play four of next five away from home. The Hawks have the league’s best home record at 17-5 and are 15-7 ATS. Atlanta lost by 20 points (103-83) at Charlotte back on Nov.6 and are 16-6 ATS revenging a road loss vs. opponent of 10 points or more over the last two seasons.
The Hawks would seem to be in a solid situation since home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points revenging a loss where team scored less than 85 points against opponent off a home win against a division rival, cover 75 percent of the time (36-12). And Charlotte is a mere 3-15 on the road, losing by 5.8 points per game; however is 11-7 ATS. Sports South carries the action at 7:30 Eastern.
How did this happen?
It’s been suggested from time to time the NBA’s playoff structure should be altered. Presently the Western Conference has far more good teams than the Eastern Conference, which has been the case for the last several years. If the league went to taking the best 16 teams by records, the West would horde 11 of those spots as the standings are today. Included would be two unlikely teams, Oklahoma City and Memphis.
Like the line from the classic movie Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid, “Who are these guys?”
Right out of Ripley’s Believe It or Not, The Thunder and Grizzlies are the two best teams in the West the last month. (Really it’s true) Oklahoma City is 11-4 and 9-6 ATS since Dec. 23. The Thunder is a very young team and amazingly coach Scott Brooks has been able to convince them that defense is the way to get better. In Oklahoma City’s last 14 games, they have held opponents to 93.6 points per game on 41.9 shooting, the latter easily the best in the NBA. The Thunder (24-18, 25-17 ATS) won by two at Minnesota in their last outing as seven point favorites and are awesome 14-2 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season.
Memphis (22-19, 24-17 ATS) has been right on Oklahoma City’s tail, winning nine of last 13 the last month and their turnaround goes even a little further back sporting 12-4 SU and ATS record since Dec. 18. The Grizzlies are also a youthful squad, with Rudy Gay, O.J. Mayo and still relatively young Zach Randolph. The Grizz come into this showdown 17-6 ATS having won three of their last four games.
Memphis is a 3.5-point favorite with total of 204.5. The Grizzlies lost to Oklahoma City at home back in December and they are 15-5 ATS revenging a home loss vs. opponent. The Thunder will seek their fifth win in six tries over Memphis since moving to Oklahoma (4-1 ATS) and have a recipe for success. If OKC scores 100 or more points and holds the opposition under that number, they are 11-0 ATS this season.
Keep a close eye on the total, with the Grizzlies who are 10-0 OVER after covering four of their last five against the spread this year and Oklahoma City who is 12-3 OVER in road games playing eight or more games in 14 days. Fox Sports in Oklahoma will carry this contest of two up and comers starting 8 Eastern.
Are Jets and Vikings good Money Line plays?
Both New York and Minnesota are road underdogs this upcoming Sunday, yet each in their own way has proven to be a valuable play for the sports bettors. The postseason tournament has revisited yesteryear this season, as the two top seeds from each conference advanced to the conference titles games for the first time since 2004. However, if history has shown us anything, the higher seeded favorite not only fails to cover, but they lose outright.The last time two top seeds made it to the Super Bowl was the season of 1993. Since that time, on seven different occasions a matchup of the best from the NFC and AFC could have happened and not once did this occur. Betting on No.1 leaves a nasty mark at 5-9 against the spread with seven outright losers, six from the AFC.
Confident New York rolling
The Jets are the bigger underdog at 7.5-points at Bookmaker.com and are +280 on the money line. Indianapolis has nobody to blame but themselves for ending up with this opponent who really believes in itself.
The Colts pulled many of the their top players against the Jets in Week 16 and New York stormed to 26-6 second half, providing the momentum they needed to start winning. Make no mistake, coach Rex Ryan has this team believing they are every bit as good as the 85’ Bears and 2000 Ravens, both defensive-oriented teams that won Super Bowls.
In analyzing the rosters of the two teams, take away Peyton Manning; a case could be made the Jets have a better starting roster. The Colts offensive line is merely average with Indy have no running game to speak of, saved by Manning’s ability to get rid the ball. No doubt Manning has the skill to pick apart any defense, but this is unique Jets D, who creates relentless pressure from every angle imaginable and whose job this week is to make Manning miserable, which could lead to bad throws and possible picks.
The Jets are going to run the ball with Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene, as the duo along with a talented offensive line averages 4.5 yards per carry on 38 attempts per contest. Quarterback Mark Sanchez has played smartly in recent weeks and his confidence has been growing, making better throws especially once the second half arrives.
NFL playoff football has evolved into getting hot at the right time. The Flyboys have won and covered seven of eight and don’t worry about playing a third straight game on the road, the Giants and Steelers have won Super Bowls in the last four years doing so.
Strong defensive teams allowing 14-18 points per game, against teams that allow 18 to 23 points per contest, after allowing 17 points or less in three straight times, are 44-18 on the money line.
Minnesota is Favre-ulous
It was a little shocking to see New Orleans as four-point favorites over Minnesota, since the Vikings appear to have a decidedly better defense. That said the Vikings have not been nearly as good away from the Metrodome this season with .500 record SU and ATS and haven’t won or covered a road game since Nov. 1 in Green Bay (0-3).
It would be foolish to dismiss Minnesota since this team is right where many thought they would be dating back to the middle of October. Brett Favre has been amazing. Scrap the grayish beard and flecks on the dome and he looks every bit the player that went to consecutive Super Bowls in the mid-90’s. Gone are the days of just throwing it up for grabs, trusting his arm along with coaches patience, trying to play Mission Impossible plays.
While New Orleans has offensive weapons all over the field, Minnesota crew is hardly second-rate. Receivers like Sidney Rice are explosive and rookie Percy Harvin is a ticking time bomb that could detonate at any time. The Vikings offensive line and Adrian Peterson have seen a number of different defensive schemes, all designed to stop A.P.; nonetheless they have to be encouraged with the Saints permitting 4.6 yards per carry.
The strength of Minny’s defense is not in the secondary, however if the Vikings defensive line plays the same as they did against Dallas, it won’t matter again. If DE Ray Edwards brings it again, Minnesota has four legitimate run stoppers and pass rushers on every play. The affects of defensive pressure have been on display in eight playoff games and if they can shake up Drew Brees, possibilities start to open up.
This is the moment Favre yearned for and no doubt wants retribution for NFC title game failure two years ago. Teams that average 7.3 or more yards per pass attempt, against average passing defense (5.9-6.7 YPPA), after gaining eight or more passing yards an attempt in two straight games, are 37-12 on the money line the last five seasons. At +160, the Vikes are worth serious consideration.
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