When I was last able to fill this feature in, we had a 2-1 day. Today we venture into the Ohio Valley for Best System at 82 percent and smokin’ this season as well. The Top Trend is reverse perfect following one of the best home teams in the country on the road and Kyle of the LCC continues to kill it and will have his Top Play for FREE. Good Luck
What I thought today- I will occasionally whine like a baby about bad beats, however I just like to get it out of my system and not as upset as I come across from time to time. In order to meet required checks and balances in life, I will report I was convinced I was 0-2 last night turning off Pittsburgh game with under a minute, only to come back to turn off computer but has CBS CBB score page open and see the game was in 3OT with 50 seconds left. I quick flipped on the TV and watched the Panthers pull it out and I understand completely how lucky I was to win.
On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners
Free Basketball System -1) Play Against favorites of 10 or more points like Murray State, who own winning percentage of 80 percent or higher and have won eight or more consecutive wins, playing a marginal losing team (40% to 49%). In the previous five years this system is 50-11 ATS, 82 percent and is 7-1 this year.
Free Basketball Trend - 2) Denver U. is 0-9 ATS in road games this season, losing by nine points per game.
Free Basketball Pick -3) Kyle continues building a nice bankroll in college hoops, 58.9 percent for the season and up +178.4 units and his top free play is Richmond.
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Time to get serious about wagering college basketball
What a weird weekend for television viewing in college hoops. With conference races heating up, to be taken seriously as college basketball bettor you have to know the surroundings. While ESPN for the most part does fine work in identify quality matchups, they first are concerned about ratings. And while a lot of people like to watch and wager, do really trite matchups like Oklahoma and Oklahoma State and N.C. State and North Carolina really hold anyone’s interest these days, unless you attended those universities, even during rivalry week. We’ll have information on many of the key games that are televised, however we also will inform readers about important contests like those in the Big Sky and Colonial Athletic Conferences, where something is at stake. Are you with me here! I thought so. Lines from Bookmaker.com.Saturday, Feb. 13
Maryland at Duke (-10, 147.5)1:00E CBS
Before the season began, the general feeling was the ACC might be more competitive top to bottom than in years. Those beliefs have been prophetic and this will be a matchup that will help sort out the logjam. Maryland (16-6, 10-7 ATS) has nice collection of players, but for them to emerge victorious, forward Landon Milbourne and guard Greivis Vasquez have to be the Terps top point producers. Look for Duke to play rough and do some talking, since Vasquez can get off his game, flapping the lips and being too emotional. Maryland is 16-7 AT in road games when facing a team with a winning record past the midpoint of season and is 5-2 and 5-1 ATS in true away games this season.
Duke (20-4, 15-8 ATS) looked like a tired squad in loss to Georgetown at the end of January, playing four games in 10 days. Now this ACC clash will be their fourth in nine days, at least they will have the crowd support to spur them on. The Blue Devils could really use Kyle Singler to begin filling the bucket with greater regularity, since the team has become too dependent of Jon Scheyer to do everything. Singler has to hit medium and three-point shots to open up the lane for players in the paint, which in turn opens up jump shooters to have clearer looks. Duke is 8-1 ATS vs. good passing teams, averaging 16 or more assists a contest.
Maryland is 8-1 ATS in 2010 and Duke is 13-0 and 9-3 ATS at Cameron Indoor. What will happen, the outright winner is 13-0-1 ATS in last 14 encounters for the only teams with two ACC losses.
Missouri at Baylor (-4, 144.5) 1:45E Big 12 Network
The Tigers and Bears are looking to move up in the Big 12 standings and do battle in Baylor. Missouri’s style is to pressure the entire court, nonetheless that is nearly impossible to do unless they make shots, which sets up the press. A quick perusal of Mizzou’s season shows most losses have occurred on off-shooting outings. Make baskets and the Tigers (18-6, 10-8 ATS) are 13-5 ATS versus offensive teams scoring 77 or more points a game.
This is important contest for Baylor (18-5, 11-5 ATS), since they will either be favored or a short road underdog in next five Big 12 engagements. The Bears follow the lead of guard Tweety Carter, who can score or dish. The Baylor big people add more than expected and do nice work cleaning the glass. That point is meaningful since Missouri will force turnovers, making rebounding a must to control an aspect of the contest. The Bears are 22-9 AT against teams who make eight or more 3-point shots a game.
Baylor has covered last six meetings in Waco, winning four times.
Rhode Island at Temple (-4.5, 133) 4:00E Comcast
A glance at the A-10 standings shows this race is going down to final weekend to crown regular season champion, with seven teams having either two or three league losses. One of the matchups that will help determine the eventual outcome is this tilt. Rhode Island (19-4, 8-10-2 ATS) would make Al Davis smile, since all they do is win. That method of play makes the Rams a poor play at home and swell choice on the road as 8-2 and 6-2-2 ATS proves. On game by game basis, Rhode Island has a lot of answers to take down opposing clubs.
No. 21 Temple (19-5, 14-10 ATS) has put together an impressive body of work in 2009-10. Victories over Villanova, Siena and Virginia Tech, along with its strong play in the A-10 makes the Owls a hoot. All year Temple has been among the best teams in college basketball in fewest points allowed (57.6), yet is not deficient in scoring (65.0), like other comparable units. This is not a squib; the Owls are 32-13 ATS against conference opponents over the last three seasons.
Rhode Island tries to prevent season sweep, however is 2-9 and 4-7 ATS at the Liacouras Center, against a Temple team that is 10-1 and 7-4 ATS on its home court.
George Mason at Old Dominion (-13.5, 122.5)4:00E Comcast-DC
These two squads trail Northeastern by a game in the Colonial Conference at 13-3 and each will look to at least keep pace Saturday afternoon. George Mason (16-9, 10-11-1 ATS) was school record 10-1 in January (6-4-1 ATS) and has stumbled a couple of times this month at Georgia State and at Drexel. The Patriots are young team and they are about to find just how good they really are. With guard Cam Long their best player, George Mason is 6-2 ATS on Saturday’s.
Old Dominion (19-7, 8-13-1 ATS) was pasted by the Patriots 71-55 as six-point road favorites on Jan. 2, before anyone realized how good they might be. The Monarchs are built around playing solid defense, permitting a meager 55.2 points per game. ODU came together as a team when Kent Bazemore was paired with Darius James in the backcourt. Old Dominion is 12-0 at the Constant Convocation Center, winning by whopping 19.8 PPG, however is only 3-5-1 ATS.
Watch the underdog in this one, who is sporting 6-2 ATS mark
Memphis at Tulsa (-2.5, 132) 7:00E ESPN2
Memphis fans are finding out what it is like to no longer be elite. The Tigers have been clipped for a couple of C-USA losses, as Tigers’ fan jealously think of how John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins would have looked in Memphis blue. The Tigers (17-7, 6-13 ATS) are no longer privileged, going just seven deep and six players absorbing the majority of the minutes. Coach Josh Pastner knows what he will receive most nights from the backcourt, up front, not so much. Memphis is just 1-6 ATS against clubs with winning home record.
Tulsa (19-5, 7-13-1 ATS) has two exemplary players in guard Ben Uzoh and center Jerome Jordan and they are the only two to start every game this season. With Memphis finally vulnerable, the senior duo understands this is their time and they want to be the top dog of the league. The Golden Hurricane can board, leading the conference in rebound margin, but get very few easy baskets ranking last in creating turnovers. Tulsa still has other taxing affairs ahead, yet a win here breeds confidence for a team that is 12-3 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less or pick.
Both teams have two conference losses and trail once beaten UTEP. The loser could be out of C-USA contention and Memphis likes their chances since they have won last 10 of 11 (6-5 ATS), including last four visits to Tulsa, covering three times.
Northern Colorado at Weber State (-4.5, 148 ) 9:00E
In the Big Sky Conference, Northern Colorado (20-5, 11-11 ATS) attempts to catch Weber State (16-8, 12-8 ATS) for first place. Will Figures and Devon Beitzel are the Bears two leading scorers this team is at its best against quality competition with 8-3 ATS record vs. outfits with a winning record.
Weber State is at the head of the conference leaderboard, having won six of seven since losing at Northern Colorado. The Wildcats are trying to win their second straight regular-season conference championship which is meaningful since the regular-season champ plays host to the semifinals and championship game of the league tournament. A usual, Weber State is tyrant at home with 10-1 mark and 5-3 ATS record. They have covered 41 of last 61 home games.
Northern Colorado is the underdog and covered the spread last night for the first time since beating Weber State eight games ago.
Tennessee at Kentucky (-9.5, 147) 9:00E ESPN
You have to tip your cap to coach Bruce Pearl. While most coaches and players talk about overcoming adversity, which many people never quite grasp, this Tennessee (18-5, 9-11 ATS) club really has with earlier suspensions that rocked the team. It says a lot about the coach and players. Though basketball is a team game, each individual had to make conscious decision to played better, work harder and the basketball world marvels at what the Volunteers have been able to accomplish since the new year began. Pearl will need another trick up his sleeve at Kentucky; however the Vols are 6-3 ATS as road underdogs.
All the early discussion was how terrific guard John Wall was the best point guard since Jason Kidd coming into college. Wall has not disappointed anyone with his singular play, but as the season has worn on, center DeMarcus Cousins has turned into a double-double machine. He wants the ball when Kentucky (23-1, 11-11 ATS) needs a basket and as opposed to many 6’11 big guys, he’s got a good stroke from the free throw line. One of the most striking aspects of these two and fellow freshman Eric Bledsoe, they love to compete and when Big Blue is off a non-cover like what happened against Alabama the last time out, they are 20-8 ATS, including this group at 10-0 and 7-1 ATS.
The Wildcats have taken 10 of last 12 at Rupp Arena vs. the Vols, thou are 6-6 ATS.
Sunday, Feb. 14
Ohio State at Illinois (+1.5, 137) 1:00E CBS
This matchup has Big Ten Network written all over two weeks ago, instead it’s an indicator of who might emerge as conference champions. Illinois (17-8, 9-13-1 ATS) was NIT bound after losing three league games in a row in the middle of January. Nobody gave them much a chance, since they still had the meat of their schedule ahead, however three wins gave the team confidence, which were followed by upsets of Michigan State and Wisconsin and an overzealous Brent Musburger has Bruce Webber up for coach of the year with this turnaround. What Webber really did is punish bad behavior from various players by giving them splinter time and they have roared back. The Fighting Illini are 12-1 in Champaign and perfect 9-0 as home favorites, though 3-6 ATS.
Ohio State (19-6, 12-13 ATS) has won eight of nine (5-4 ATS) to crawl back into Big Ten chase. The return of Evan Turner has made this team complete and they are hell-bent on winning it all since Turner is likely to enter NBA Draft after the season. Turner’s ability to score allows William Buford and David Lighty to find more open shots. Illinois will also have to contend with center Dallas Lauderdale, who is a load in the low blocks. The Buckeyes are 3-7 ATS away from Columbus and Thad Matta coached teams are 6-17 ATS after making 20 percent from the three-point arc.
The Illini are 6-3 SU and ATS hosting Ohio State and swept them last season.
Louisville at Syracuse (-8, 150.5) 1:00E ESPN
Louisville (15-9, 7-12 ATS) has not met lowered expectations from a season ago, facing a slate loaded with landmines. The Cardinals have been on the short side of a number of road games in the Big East, however Rick Pitino isn’t about to lay all the blame on his players. “I’ve had it with the officiating (in the conference). That’s why I’m not going to say anymore. I’ve had it.”—Coach Pitino. He’ll hope the zebras won’t be an issue on Valentine’s Day, with his club 14-5 ATS in February games over the last three seasons.
Syracuse (24-1, 15-6 ATS) caught many prognosticators off guard in November, yet this club has methodically gone about its basketball business and keeps winning games. The Orangemen have suffered a couple of sleepy starts in recent weeks, but showed their talent and grit in overcoming Georgetown and DePaul. If Syracuse is really Final Four material, over the next month have to be less risky when handling the ball, trying to make too many ESPN highlight plays. Facing a pressing Louisville squad could be a step in the right direction for a team that is 13-5 ATS playing a team with a winning record this season.
The Orange is 2-5 and 1-5-1 ATS vs. the ‘Ville in last 12 years.
Backyard Brawl - Part 2
In ESPN’s endless pursuit to attract viewers 24/7, an extremely rare Big East Friday night affair is on tap. Two rivals with long history of hatred collide for second time in nine days, this time in Pittsburgh. Off home loss to Villanova 82-75 as 5.5-point, West Virginia opens two game road trip, facing the pumped-up Panthers.For just the fifth time in 180 meetings and the second in a row, West Virginia and Pittsburgh meet as ranked teams. The great aspect about these two teams facing off is the overused expression “these two teams really don’t like is each other” is 100 percent accurate.
The fan incident that occurred in Morgantown, with things being thrown on the floor and Pittsburgh assistant coach being hit in the face with a coin, will only serve to heighten the tension as the Peterson Center, since West Virginia punished 70-51 on Feb. 3.
The fifth-ranked Mountaineers (19-4, 9-13 ATS) are led by forward Da’Sean Butler, whose been carrying the load. Butler continues to move up in every important school hoops record and his support group has playing back to early season level. Though Pittsburgh’s roster isn’t setup the same as Villanova, expect them to use some of the defensive elements the Wildcats sprung on West Virginia, like the triangle and two, which limited Butler to 2 for 12 shooting. Coach Bob Huggins crew has room for improvement and is 7-0 ATS versus teams averaging 53 or less shot a game.
No. 25 Pittsburgh’s offense tends to plod along, needing concerted effort from everyone. This was shown when the Panthers (18-6, 11-8-2 ATS) lost four of five and averaged 60.4 points per game a few weeks ago. Coach Jamie Dixon has preached to his team about picking up the tempo to find easier shots. The Panthers have, scoring 160 points combined in last two wins. This approach has also worked at the defensive end, where they have held last two opponents below 37 percent shooting and Pitt is 6-0 ATS in home games having won two of last three games the last two seasons.
This becomes important since Pittsburgh has been victimized by some Big East’s top scorers, not having an answer. The Panthers players have been slow in making proper adjustments if someone from the opposing team gets hot, either not creating enough on-ball pressure or making poor rotations. West Virginia has a few different players that can hot, thus making correct evaluation is tantamount for club that is 15-6 ATS at home after playing a game as favorite.
The intensity will be off the charts since it is a Friday night, with a 9:00 Eastern start (giving Pitt students time to fuel up) and hated rival in town off a loss. Pittsburgh is a two-point home underdog with total of 126.5 and is 13-5 ATS on their home floor against a team with a winning record. West Virginia expects a tough environment and coach Huggins will stress this is not the time to let one upset loss turn into two. However, the Mountaineers are 1-10 ATS and 7-0 UNDER after a combined score of 155 points or more.
Pittsburgh is 8-1 and 5-3-1 ATS in West Virginia’s last nine visits and 6-0 OVER revenging a road loss.
Last Chance for NBA Bettors
All but four NBA teams go into hibernation for a few days starting Thursday. The lucky(?) four clubs are part of the TNT Thursday night televised package and at least they know they will have something to play for after the All-Star break, unlike the New Jersey Nets. The first contest brings together the Eastern Conference finalists from last season and San Antonio will be off the road for brief reprieve from Rodeo Trip, after visiting Denver.Cleveland seeks small measure of revenge
In sports were told every season and every team is different from year to year. Players are taught to let go of past failures or success, since what is happening this moment is what you are playing for, not what previously occurred. Fans and often sports bettors don’t have that acquired skill, they remember.
If Cleveland’s unassailable 12-game winning streak conjures up memories of the Cavaliers (42-11, 27-25-1 ATS) marching into the East Finals last season, that’s understandable. However, in search of No. 13, pardon those who wonder if this could be unlucky number since they held tickets on Cleveland to win series wager over Orlando last spring and saw those ducats become combustible.
“They’re coming into our building, and right now we’re the best team in the NBA,” LeBron James said Tuesday after beating New Jersey. “It’s going to be a fun one.” The Cavs are 7-5 ATS during this hot streak and have won 20 of last 21 contests played at Quicken Loans Arena (23-3 and 11-15 ATS on the season).
Cleveland believes they are better equipped this season to make the NBA Finals, having acquired Shaquille O’Neal, who was brought in largely because the Cavs had no answer for Dwight Howard in the playoffs last year. The Cavaliers come into tonight 14-2 ATS at home after two games converting 50 percent or more of their shots.
Orlando (36-17, 25-24-4 ATS) doesn’t arrive in Cleveland like the Washington Generals. The Magic have won 10 of 12, including last three in a row. They have done this playing great defense, permitting just one team to break the century mark against them. Orlando was on fire against Chicago last night and is 16-5 ATS after scoring 60 points or more in the first half of last game. The Magic’s confidence is growing as Vince Carter, who has suffered the worst slump of his career, has averaged 24.2 points in his last five games.
Cleveland is a 6.5-point favorite with total of 194 at Bookmaker.com and is deceiving 16-7 ATS facing a team with a winning record this year, as their average margin of victory is 8.5 points a game. Here is an odd stat for a top notch team; Orlando attempts more three point shots than free throws (27.9 vs. 27.3) and they arrive near Lake Erie 21-9 ATS as a road underdog over the last two seasons. The Magic lost earlier meeting at home to Cavs 102-93, nevertheless has split last six visits in Cleveland, covering five of them. Tipoff is just 8 Eastern.
Spurs might need lasso to contain Denver on Rodeo Trip
San Antonio (29-21, 24-25-1 ATS) is .500 after its first four games of annual road adventure, but both losses have come against teams lacking their stars. The Spurs didn’t have to see Brandon Roy or Kobe Bryant in uniform, yet failed to win or cover in either case. Richard Jefferson thought his coach had the answer.
“Coach (Gregg Popovich) said it best: ‘We’re playing soft.’ And that’s starting with me. I haven’t shot the ball well the last 10 or so games.” -Jefferson stated.
The Spurs won’t catch such a break tonight, as Carmelo Anthony is back for Denver and they are 2-10 ATS against Northwest Division opponents this season. Jefferson was brought in to add energy and wing player skills on the fast break; instead he’s averaging 12.1 points, his lowest since his rookie year. The Spurs are commonplace 14th in points scored and 12th in defensive field goal percentage, their highest figure since Tim Duncan’s rookie year (1997).
Denver (35-17, 24-25-3 ATS) has missed Anthony, just 4-3 in last seven outings, however is off best shooting night since Nov.17, as they destroyed Dallas 127-91, draining 60.8 percent from the field. With last offensive output, the Nuggets are 10-2 ATS after a combined score of 205 points or more in consecutive games this season.
Denver is a 5.5-point pick with total of 206 and is 23-4 (14-12 -1 ATS) at the Pepsi Center, winning by 10.2 PPG. The Nuggets are 43-24 ATS after playing a game as a home favorite since last year and are 18-8 OVER on their own floor after scoring 100 points or more three straight contests. San Antonio would like to end first leg of road trip on positive note, but are 15-29 ATS as a road underdog of six points or less since 2007. The Spurs are 9-1 UNDER as visitors after playing a road game this season.
Denver has won and covered three in a row over the Spurs, largely because they have outrebounded them by over 10 a game. This Western Conference conflict starts after preceding contest.
WCC Clash - Round 2
One of the most overused words in sports today is- adversity. The moment that struck everyone that this particular word was being taken too conveniently to describe too broad a subject matter was when Tom Brady said his New England Patriots has overcome a lot of “adversity” in putting together 18-0 record after his team had just won the 2008 AFC championship on the way to playing the New York Giants in the Super Bowl. As it turned out Brady did face real adversity the following season, blowing out his knee and coming back to play this past season.Instead of adversity, let’s start a new word for sports speak, resiliency. Gonzaga (19-4, 11-8-1 ATS) started the season with two very good guards, a potentially outstanding freshman forward and their usual rugged schedule. The Bulldogs exceeded early season expectations and quickly grew as a team under the leadership of coach Mark Few and established they would still be the favorite in the West Coast Conference.
After plowing thru the first part of the WCC slate, at the end of January, Gonzaga trailed by 14 points in the second half to last place Santa Clara, before winning 71-64 as 12-point favorites. Two nights later, at San Francisco, no such luck as they lost to the Dons 81-77 to fall into first place tie with St. Mary’s.
The Zags didn’t take the defeat lightly and pounded Portland 76-49 at home next, but less than 48 hours later they had a date with Memphis at their place. It turns out this contest was the top play in most forums that day; play against Gonzaga with the five points by professionals and amateurs alike.
What focus the Bulldogs had lost, it was back like a HD picture and they upset Memphis 66-58. Seniors Matt Bouldin and Steven Gray exhibited leadership and dragged the younger players back to playing 40 minutes of basketball, which they did against the Tigers. Gonzaga is 10-0 and 7-2 ATS this season off a spread cover and showed ample resiliency.
Saint Mary’s (21-3, 16-6-1 ATS) has just one loss in the West Coast Conference and it was to Gonzaga 89-82, in which the team collectively felt they placed too much pressure on themselves to play perfectly. The Gaels have been buoyed by that fact and have also shown resiliency, as they have come right back and played the same kind of basketball they had all year, winning six straight (3-2-1 ATS). The St. Mary’s players, led by center Omar Samhan, know this is their chance to take control of WCC and they are 8-0 and 7-1 ATS in road games this season.
Bookmaker.com has the Gaels as six-point underdogs since they have lost 13 in a row at Gonzaga, though been competitive in covering six times. St. Mary’s is 10-2 and 9-3 ATS playing with three or more days rest and has to hope their three freshmen are more settled this time around. A loss sets up a very negative state of affair for the Gaels, who have to play Saturday against an improved Portland squad and one loss could easily turn into two.
Gonzaga has covered their last six contests vs. teams with .600 or better records and would love to see the athletic Elias Harris match his last effort against St. Mary’s where he scored 31 points. The Zags are often a top heavy home favorite and are 2-4 ATS at the McCarthey Athletic Center, in spite of 8-1 record. Since last season, they are 1-7 ATS at home playing teams with a winning record.
This WCC tilt is on ESPN2 starting at 8:00 Pacific and one factor every bettor has to think about is Gonzaga’s 66.1 free throw percentage, dead last in the conference for accuracy.
Heat and Suns look to increase temperatures
Dwayne Wade and his Heat teammates ended their five game losing streak last evening, in humbling Houston 99-66. They will seek just their third road win in 10 attempts in a place that has not hospitable to them. Meanwhile, the Phoenix Suns are playing their best basketball since the beginning of the season and are rested for opponent who is injured and off playing last night.Miami (25-27 SU & ATS) had lost five in a row, and been beaten rather severally (9.6 points per game) and was determined to change their attitude around at home against the Rockets. The Heat turned up the heat on Houston, building a 56-31 halftime lead and never looked back. “Instead of feeling sorry for ourselves, we came in with the right mindset to work and try to get better,” coach Erik Spoelstra said.
To take positive momentum into the All-Star break, the Heat players will need a non-placet attitude about playing consecutive nights. Miami is 2-8 and 3-7 ATS playing with no rest and been bashed by 12.4 points a contest in this situation. The Heat are 3-12 ATS after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half over the last two seasons and head to a joint where success is tough to come by.
Miami has lost five in a row at Phillips Arena during the regular season and eight of nine if you include the playoffs in almost three seasons (3-6 ATS). Atlanta (33-17, 32-18 ATS) has the second best home record in the Eastern Conference at 21-5 and the finest spread record in the NBA at 18-8 ATS. The Hawks have captured nine of last 10 (7-3 ATS) and are 15-5 ATS on home floor after playing three consecutive games as favorite.
The Heat is a seven-point road underdog at DiamondSportsbook.com, with a total of 191 and is 17-34 ATS off a home win since 2007. Atlanta on the other hand is 15-6 ATS overall and 10-2 OVER in a home game facing a team with a losing record this season.
This doesn’t look like a crucial contest for Phoenix (31-21, 27-24-1 ATS), however it is important for the following reasons. The Suns five game winning streak has restored the club’s confidence, especially with the last four victories coming on the road. A sixth straight W might cool talk of trading All-Star center Amare Stoudemire, whose averaged 27.8 points and 12.3 rebounds in those four road triumphs.
Phoenix has gone from a low Western Conference seed to now with visions of moving up to fourth slot if they continue with big second half. Besides trying to earn another win, the Suns will begin playing their final 29 games well-rested, with this being their only contest in 11 day period. Phoenix won and covered at Sacramento last Friday 114-102 and is 12-4 ATS after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points.
Conversely, Portland (30-24, 29-24-1 ATS) can’t get to break quick enough. The Trailblazers have been injury-plagued again and have missed the heart and soul of their team, Brandon Roy. Portland is 4-7 (7-4 ATS) in Roy’s absence and though Jerryd Bayless filled in admirable for a time, averaging 14 points per game, he’s down to 6.5 PPG in last two tries and the Blazers have scored 82 and 77 points in last two games played at home. Coach Nate McMillan’s team is 47-70 ATS playing eight or more games in 14 days.
The Suns are eight-point home chalk, with total of 210.5 and they are 12-2 ATS after playing a game as a road favorite and 9-0 OVER at home off two or more consecutive road wins. Portland is 17-8 ATS versus teams who make six or more 3-point shots a game and 12-3 OVER as a road underdog this season.
Tuesday's Top Tips
Got clipped for 1-2 day as the LCC members took it in the shorts on West Virginia. Kyle didn’t play that contest and has enjoyed a terrific season and gives out his top play for Free. The Top Trend is in the NBA following a Southeast Division teams and the Best System is a Super Tuesday tilt at 26-5 ATS. Good Luck
What I found today- (As of 11:30 MST) Let’s be honest, last night’s biggest Monday was a big disappointment for viewers, unless you had Villanova and Kansas. Let’s hope that Super Tuesday has more to offer. College basketball bettors are jumping all over Wisconsin at home against Illinois squad off emotional win over Michigan State Saturday night, moving them from opening -7 to -9.5.
Wake Forest is receiving almost the same treatment, being taken from -4 to -6 at home, however Boston College forward Joe Trapani is doubtful.
College hoops bettors also see two totals going higher than opening numbers. The MAC matchup of Akron and Central Michigan has risen from 128 to 130.5 and in the battle of saints; St. Louis and St. Joseph opened at 126.5 and is now 129.
The NBA is relatively quiet, with Memphis moving from one-point home favorite to underdog; however that could well be a Pick by tipoff.
Much more action on the totals side in the NBA, with the Jazz and Clippers pounded hard on the overnight line, taken from 198.5 to 201 this morning and still trending upward to 202. Though many angles support Chicago and Indiana falling below the number, this total has gone from 202 to 205 with heavy wagering. Lastly, Sac-Town and New York began at 212.5 and resides three points higher at present.
Vancouver in the midst of unreal 14 consecutive road games because of the Olympics and are a -145 money line road choice after opening at -130 against Tampa Bay.
On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners
Free Basketball System -1) Play On home teams as a favorite or pick like Vanderbilt off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite against opponent off a home blowout win by 20 points or more. Since 2005 this hoops system is 26-5 ATS, 83.9 percent.
Free Basketball Trend - 2) The Washington Loaded Guns are 2-13 ATS in a road game where the total is between 185 and 189.5 points over the last three seasons losing by better than 15 points per game.
Free Basketball Pick -3) Kyle building a nice bankroll in college hoops, 58.7 percent for the season, up over 175 units and likes Colorado State in the MWC.
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Rivalry Week lives up to billing tonight
For the most part, this made for cable sports broadcasting concept work well putting on a variety of top line games to watch and wager on. The situations are presumed to work and sometimes the schedule and prior events bring added importance to these matchups. It’s a battle of Tennessee when Vandy hosts the Volunteers in Nashville and the Big Ten has four of its top five teams in action in extremely important conference clashes. It promises to be quite a Tuesday for Rivalry Week.Volunteer State Scuffle
Vanderbilt and Tennessee are positioned one game behind Kentucky in the SEC East and the winner will be no worse off at the completion of this conflict. Vanderbilt (17-5, 10-9 ATS) blew a golden opportunity Saturday to stay tied with the Wildcats falling at last place Georgia 72-58 as 4.5-point favorites. The Commodores shot 32.8 percent from the field (6-23 from 3’s) and did a real poor job defensively as the Bulldogs shot 53.2 percent and had nearly as many assists as baskets. Vandy will have to be much more efficient at home since they are 5-13-1 ATS off a SU loss.
Tennessee (18-4, 9-10 ATS) continues to confound, winners of three in a row after suffering a pair of SEC losses, one of which was to Vanderbilt. Wayne Chism is off a career high 30 points against South Carolina and he needs to be a defensive stalwart on the road. The Vols are just 2-5 ATS in last seven conference games.
The Volunteers are 13-5-1 ATS in last 19 battles, including 7-2 ATS at Vandy and are 3.5-point road underdogs at Bookmaker.com. This contest is on ESPN at 7 Eastern.
State Line Collision
Illinois and Wisconsin really don’t have much of a rivalry except for those that live on either side of the border between the two states. Folks south of the border see Wisconsin as nice quiet place to visit for vacations and those from the Badger State have little use for “those Flat-landers”. The Kohl Center will be no vacation spot for coach Bruce Pearl’s club, who is off its signature win of the season against Michigan State 78-73. The Fighting Illini (16-8, 8-13-1 ATS) has won four in a row and is in three-way tie for second place, one game behind Michigan State, however they are only 2-7-1 ATS off a cover since last season.
The Badgers (18-5, 13-8 ATS) have just taken care of both Michigan schools and return home where they are 13-0 and 8-3 ATS this season. Wisconsin is receiving fine performances Keaton Nankivil and Jordan Taylor, both who have raised their play since Jon Leuer was injured and coach Bo Ryan has developed a little depth with forward Ryan Evans and guard Rob Wilson making solid contributions. Off their win and cover at Ann Arbor, Wisconsin is 10-2 and 7-3 ATS after covering the oddsmakers number.
Wisconsin is a 9.5-point favorite and is 3-0-1 ATS the last four times Illinois has visited and the Under is 4-1 in the Mad City. This encounter is on the Big Ten Network at 7 Eastern.
Spartans in survival mode
Michigan State (19-5, 8-15 ATS) had kept winning, yet aesthetically was far from pleasing in starting Big Ten play 9-0. Among the reasons have been Raymar Morgan hasn’t always played with complete effort and is Casper the Ghost on the floor at times, particularly when foul problems arrive. Sophomore forward Delvon Roe continues to struggle, which is why sixth man Draymond Green continues to see heavy minutes. The Spartans were blasted by the Badgers for their first conference loss and with injured Kalin Lucas on the sidelines, could not match baskets with improbable Illinois club. Lucas’ status is still up in the air for tonight and it is time for these other players to assertive themselves, since Purdue is in town and their mindset is aggressive. Sparty is 33-14 ATS when they grab more than 45 rebounds.
It seems odd a Top 20 team would still be tinkering with main players in February, yet this is exactly what coach Matt Painter has been doing. A few Purdue (19-3, 10-12 ATS) bench players and occasionally starters have been more erratic than the Real Housewives of Orange Country. Nobody would prefer to have certain individuals step up more than Painter, with eight Big Ten games on the docket. Sophomore point guard Lewis Jackson has played 41 total minutes in three games since returning from a broken left foot that sidelined him and some of the rust is starting to come off which would help since the Boilermakers are 4-14 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points.
First place Michigan State is favored by 2.5points and is 9-1 and 7-3 ATS at the Breslin Center vs. Purdue with 6-2 UNDER mark. Game time will be just after 9 Eastern on ESPN.
The NBA is TOTALLY Cool on Tuesday
Tonight in professional basketball, the focus is on checking out the latest trend totals for a Tuesday evening. More than few sharp bettors will tell whoever is listening that the best way to beat the NBA is to play totals, with the numbers often more difficult to beat on side action. Here are totals aspects to consider tonight.Less than two weeks ago, who didn’t want to play the Minnesota Timberwolves, since a relatively easy victory awaited any team that put forth the effort. Like grandma using the “clapper”, the T-Wolves have taken on juggernaut status like turning on a light switch. Minnesota’s unlikely uprising has coincided with putting the ball in the basket, shooting 50 percent or better in four consecutive games in which they have won and covered. The Timberwolves are on a 6-1 OVER run and as they head to Philadelphia and Minny is 16-9 OVER on the road this season. Bookmaker.com is producing a 205.5 figure on this matchup and Minnesota is 10-2 OVER in a road game where the total is 200 to 209.5 this season.
Any game Indiana is involved in just has the feel of an Over. The Pacers are 25th in points allowed at 104 per game and are average offensive at 99.1 PPG. Oddsmakers have had a good read on Indiana most of the season in the totals category, since they are 29-21-1 UNDER for the year. The Pacers are a 1.5-point home favorite against Chicago tonight with total of 203.5 and are 10-2 UNDER as a home favorite of six points or less this season. This Central Division contest also shows the Bulls leaning one way, as they are is 8-1 UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 200 this campaign.
Those trying to sell Sacramento and New York as a defensive conflict are laying out the galimatias on sports bettors. The total is 212.5, which is the lowest in three previous meetings between these teams, all that went Under the number. Even with this change of events, eight of the last dozen games between these mediocre teams have gone OVER and the Knicks are 13-3 OVER in February games since last year. However, maybe those setting the numbers know something. The Kings are on a three-game Eastern swing, having lost six in a row and are 11-1 UNDER after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games. New York allowed 74 points in the first half of last contest to the Cavaliers, but came back to cover in loss at Cleveland. The Knickerbockers are 10-1 UNDER after trailing in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half over the last three seasons. Maybe this East vs West affair isn’t as obvious as it looks.
The Utah Jazz have won eight in a row and 12 of 13 to move within two games of division leading Denver. Utah’s offense has been incredibly effective in this stretch, averaging 110.7 points per game and they are 9-4 OVER. The Jazz defeated Denver 116-106 and is 13-4 OVER in road games after scoring 110 points or more. The Clippers can’t possibly keep up with Utah in high scoring tilt and are 17-7 UNDER at the Staples Center this season. Los Angeles lost at Utah in their third game of the season by 13 points and is 9-1 UNDER in home games revenging a road loss vs. opponent of 10 points or more this season. Oddsmakers opened this encounter at 198.5 and NBA totals players have hit it hard, raising it three points.The Day After
Officially took a 1-1 day on Super Bowl Sunday and we’ll search for better results the day after. Sort of a slow day on Monday, thus the Best System around happens to be on the NHL at 32-6. The Top Trend and Free Pick have a decided view point, see what you think. Good Luck
What I’m thinking today- Congratulations to the New Orleans Saints for winning the first ever Super Bowl and the city’s first ever championship. The most striking aspect of the game was Sean Payton’s ability to be himself. Since becoming a head coach, he’s always been a risk taker and it worked for him again in Miami.
Going for the fourth down and not making it near the end of the second quarter and still being able to come away with three points to get the score to 10-6. The onside kick was a decisive play, that just as easily could have gone the other way (imagine the outcry had the Colts gotten the ball and score to take the lead to 17-6). Finally, the challenge that was reversed to give New Orleans a touchdown lead, which brought into question how the rule actually reads. Three decisions that could just as easily worked against the Saints, but if you are destined to win a Super Bowl, those thinks go your way.
Kudos to Drew Brees, 29 for 32 over final three quarters, as New Orleans literally took what Indianapolis gave them, with eight different receivers reading the Colts zone and running to area and coming back to ball for pitch and catch completions. This is the same Brees San Diego didn’t believe had the ability to win a championship with. The Chargers were probably right, it would have never happened in San Diego.
Gregg Williams’ defense was burned for 10 quick points and switched from 3-4 to 3-3-5, which created more exotic looks and made it tougher for Peyton Manning to be consistent. This defense shuffle ultimately set up the game’s winning Pick Six for the Saints.
The Dwight Freeney injury was a big deal since he was unable to use spin move and the Saints seldom had to double him, particularly in the final 30 minutes after his ankle stiffened up. In a world where instant coffee isn’t fast enough, Peyton Manning went from one of the all-time greats before the game to 9-9 in the post-season immediately after its conclusion by the talking heads.
Early reports are this might be the most watched Super Bowl ever and one of the most wagered on. Because so many books had exposure to the New Orleans on the money line, they either will show a slight loss or profit when everything is tabulated.
On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners
Free Hockey System -1) Play on any team against the money line like Phoenix, off a blowout loss by three goals or more to a division rival against opponent off consecutive road losses by two goals or more. The pucks system is 32-6, 84.2 percent.
Free Basketball Trends - 2) Fairfield is 0-8 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 or more points over the last two years.
Free Basketball Pick -3) The LCC is solidly behind West Virginia to cover tonight with betting members 11-0 in their favor.
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Holy Crap! This truly is a Big Monday!
ESPN viewers have suffered a visual assault this past week promoting tonight’s games and rivalry week in general, yet the matchups from the Big East and Big 12 are exemplary. Negative thinkers may believe Villanova and Texas losing on Saturday takes away from the meaningfulness of these contests; however this college basketball writer and sports bettor chooses to think differently, instead it creates even greater urgency for the Wildcats and Longhorns to play their best and prevail. Football may be history for another season, but what a way to kickoff the off-season!Villanova at West Virginia 7:00E
Villanova (20-2, 15-6 ATS) completes the gruesome task of two games in three days on the Big East conference road. The Wildcats started their game at Georgetown like many cars around Washington D.C. area Saturday, stuck with no place to go in losing 103-90. Nova ran into a focused Hoyas club off a loss to South Florida, as they shot 56 percent from the field, went 8 of 13 from beyond the arc and hit 12 of 13 free throws before halftime in building 50-31 lead. Coach Jay Wright’s squad did more than fair share to contribute to first conference loss, committing 16 turnovers over the opening 20 minutes.
“That was not one of our better performances, but you’ve got to give Georgetown most of the credit. They jumped on us,” coach Wright said. The Wildcats have won and covered both their games this season with one day between contests and is 18-6 ATS playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last two seasons.
West Virginia (19-3, 9-12 ATS) is in second place, one game behind Villanova and Syracuse and played Saturday in a strange contest even for them. St. John’s was a popular home favorite among sports handicappers receiving 7.5-points with the Mountaineers in look-ahead situation. It certainly seemed like a smart wager with the Red Storm up 16-points in the first half and leading 33-22 at halftime. Coach Bob Huggins lit into his team and six minutes in the second half, they went on 16-0 run on the way to a 57-27 final 20 minutes, for the win and cover.
With a six-game winning streak (4-2 ATS) the Mountaineers are getting their house in order. Devin Ebanks is scoring better, Truck Bryant has regained his shooting eye and though Kevin Jones has been slightly off, he kills opposing teams with his assertive offensive rebounding, adding points in that manner. Da’Sean Butler is West Virginia brightest star and is playing like it. The bottom line, coach Bob Huggins is starting to see the team that started 11-0, albeit, against stiffer competition these days and his club is 10-4 ATS in February.
This has all the makings of a real Big East physical war in which the basketball won’t be pretty, but entertaining nevertheless. DiamondSportsbook.com has West Virginia as five-point favorite with total of 150 and they are 4-1 SU and ATS the last five times Nova came calling.
Villanova is 10-4 ATS facing clubs with winning records and is 5-2 SU and on the road this campaign. The Mountaineers are 11-1 and 4-7 ATS at home and university officials hope the only thing the fans bring is a full throat to scream positively for their team.
Kansas at Texas 9:00E
Studying tape of Texas (19-4, 9-10 ATS) early in the season, the most discernable difference is defensive on-the-ball pressure. The Longhorns played with greater enthusiasm in the first part of the year and have to rekindle that feeling, especially against a team like No. 1 Kansas. The 80-71 loss at Oklahoma as a touchdown favorite was the lowest point of the season for a club that has lost four of six and covered the spread once since Dec.22 (1-9 ATS).
Oklahoma deserved credit for making nine 3-point bombs in the first half, but a hand up or denial defense would have helped. According to Orangebloods.com, Texas missed anywhere from 8 to 17 layups against a second-rate Sooners frontline and the free throw shooting was hysterical if it wasn’t so sad (10 of 27).
Texas is at the top of their game when the points are distributed. Damion James, Avery Bradley and for the most part Dexter Pittman hit their averages, but when Justin Mason, Dogus Balbay, Gary Johnson and J’Covan Brown are at or near double digits, Texas is that much better. The Horns are 31-18 ATS at home against offensive teams scoring 77 or more points a contest.
After suffering brief slump caused by internal and external forces, center Cole Aldrich is back and Kansas (22-1, 9-10-1 ATS) is back on track. The big man is exhibiting many of the qualities why he is being compared to former NBA great Kevin McHale. His presence along with a smokin’ hot Marcus Morris, gives the Jayhawks power in the paint, matched with devastating perimeter game. Kansas plays the 94-foot game led by PG Sherron Collins and the chemistry issue that manifested itself is to behind this team. The Jayhawks are 11-3 ATS vs. clubs outscoring their opponents by eight points a contest after 15 or games on the year.
It’s not official, but if Texas can’t knock off top-ranked Kansas in Austin, their season might be over, trying to be elite club. Both teams are Big Monday winners, with the Longhorns 23-9 ATS and the Jayhawks 16-5 ATS to start another work week.
Kansas is a 1.5-point road favorite and the straight up winner is 8-2 ATS in last 10 meetings, including three in a row.
Top NBA Monday Systems
The New Orleans Hornets probably wish they were at home tonight to be part of the excitement that has engulfed the Crescent City. Instead, they are on the road in Orlando and are part of an extremely light schedule that has just three games to start the week heading into the All-Star break.New Orleans (+8.5, 194) at Orlando
Normally, when a team like the Magic has a winning percentage of 60 to 75 percent and has played under the total by 30 or more points in last five contests and their next game has a total of 190 to 199.5, the Under is a safe play at 74-45 since 2005. However, this season we have seen a reversal, with this very system 10-4 Over in 2009-10.
San Antonio (+3, 194) at L.A. Lakers
In the last three seasons, nine of the 12 matchups between these teams have gone under the total. The Lakers will be playing their playing ninth game in two weeks and the Spurs their third road game in five days. When conceivably tired teams meet in these circumstances they are 49-19 UNDER the last 14 years.
Dallas (-4, 218) at Golden State
The Warriors have lost eight in a row and are dead last in the league in defense permitting 111.3 points per game. Home teams having allowed 100 points or more five straight games, against opponent after scoring 55 points or more in the first half of consecutive contests are 8-25 ATS the last five years.
Super Bowl Sunday
Iowa State made three 3’s in the final 80 seconds I believe it was, preventing 3-0 day. The Best System follows one of the hottest teams in the Big East and it’s not Syracuse, in a system that is 81 percent. Sal has his top Super Bowl bet and today’s trends are more informational than anything. Plus, I share my SB pick and top prop wagers. Good Luck and enjoy the game and day.
What I’m doing today- I like the Colts to win the game, 34-23, but have decided to have a little fun and bets the Saints with the points and have wagered equal value on Indy on the money line, thus hoping for them to win and not cover.
Here are my favorite prop bets today.
First Quarter –Under 13 points
Largest lead of the game (16.5) Under
Colts rushing yards (95.5) Under
Manning completions (25.5) Over
Reggie Wayne – completions (5.5) Over
Dallas Clark receiving yards (69.5) Over
On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners
Free Basketball System -1) Play On road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like South Florida off an upset win as an underdog of 10 or more, in February games. The Bulls also get back their second leading scorer for a system that is 34-8 ATS, 81 percent.
Free Football Trends - 2) Not really trends per se, but interesting. When Dallas Clark catches a touchdown pass Indianapolis is 19-1 SU the last three years. The last three quarterbacks to complete 70 or more percent of their passes during the regular season went on to win a Super Bowl, can you say Drew Brees.
Free Football Pick -3) Sal of the Left Coast Connection bet the Colts on the money line.
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What are the Betting Possibilities for Super Bowl XLIV
The day has arrived, oh sure there will be a great deal of chatter, heart-warming stories and a blast from the past (which includes The Who), looking at the history of the game itself still to come before kickoff of No. 44, however for the most part, it is window dressing to prepare for party you are hosting or attending. The biggest question on every bettors mind besides the $10 prop bet on the coin toss is who wins and covers? For your reading pleasure, here are the definitive answers to those questions.Indianapolis wins and covers IF Peyton Manning has time to throw the ball. Manning’s work ethic and attention to detail is well documented and given time, will pick apart any defense. Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark were quiet in AFC Championship game, as New York had the best shutdown corner in the NFL in Darrelle Revis and game-planned to take away Clark, forcing Manning to look elsewhere, which he expertly did. Jabari Greer and Tracy Porter are two good corners, just not in the same area code as Revis. With DC Gregg Williams expected to blitz heavily (though don’t be surprised if they rush three and have eight in coverage more than believed with all the posturing), Manning will look to hot receiver and deliver.
The Colts don’t have to run a great deal, just meet their 23 attempts per game, to give New Orleans something to look at. As long as Indianapolis averages 3.7 or more per carry, that keeps them on balance for all down and distance situations.
Defensively, the Colts have to play their game. That means rushing Drew Brees to make one read and throw the ball, not allowing him time to survey the field and pick out a receiver for a bigger play. Indianapolis has to be stout in the middle, as this is where the Saints prefer to run. That would mean the names Gary Brackett and Melvin Bullitt are spoken frequently.
Indianapolis wins, but does not cover IF the Saints cover a few different aspects. Look for New Orleans to use various packages that include five and six defense backs, depending on down and distance. Coach Williams will entrust the underrated Greer can at least prevent Wayne from having big game and will use a corner to cover Clark, to nullify his speed and hope he can get underneath with safety help over the top. DT Sedrick Ellis has to be dynamic to shut down Colts running game to three or less yards a pop (something the Saints have seldom done) and be the key guy in creating pressure into Manning’s face up the gut.
A big factor will be the health of Dwight Freeney. He is Indy’s one true difference maker on defense and if he is at 50 percent or less or can’t go much beyond the second quarter, a big edge goes to Brees and offense, since they won’t need to double Freeney, putting another receiver out into the pattern or used as safety valve. The Indianapolis corners are beatable and given time, Brees could have big day passing.
New Orleans is money line play IF they are the more physical team. That starts up front on offense and carries over to front seven on defense. The Saints can create a push with the trio of center Jonathan Goodwin and guards Jahri Evans and Carl Nicks. If this threesome starts punching holes in the Colts middle and Brackett is making tackles five yards down field, head coach Sean Payton will be smiling and working his play sheet feverishly. Pierre Thomas is punishing downhill runner and Reggie Bush has been more physical, still having big play potential. A running game leaves Brees with countless possibilities in the passing game, short and long and if head coach Jim Caldwell wants to dial up blitzes, no problem for Brees to go highly effective screen game. The Saints will not be discouraged if they fall behind, as they have had a number of come from behind victories.
The Saints defense is maligned and justifiably so, ranking 25th during the regular season and being ripped by Minnesota for 475 yards in NFC title tilt. However, ask Brett Favre and Kurt Warner how much they enjoyed being hit by New Orleans blitzers, enough to where both will likely retire having faced them in last game ever. (OK, overstating the point but a great trivia question in future years) The beauty of a one game finale is coach Williams defense has less pressure, as what their real mission is to give up fewer points than what their team’s offense scores and who cares if Manning passes for 500 yards, as long as they win. As has been the case all year, the defense has to be opportunistic and create turnovers, likely at least three. New Orleans has forced 46 takeaways this season in 18 games and will have a few defensive wrinkles Manning has not seen and has to hope they can keep the Colts in from of them. If this plan is completed, Who Dat will mean Super Bowl champions.
Which way does the total go? Most experts are figuring a shootout with the two premier quarterbacks this season; each is well-armed with a myriad of weapons and defenses that have as many questions as answers. Nerves and the feeling out process plays a big role in the first quarter, as 10 of the last 11 Super Bowls have seen 10 or fewer points in the opening 15 minutes, with seven of those being 3-0 or no score. Typically, once the players and coaches have made adjustments, the offenses start to sizzle. Given the circumstances and how these offenses can perform, points in the final 45 minutes should add up quickly.
DiamondSportsbook.com has Indianapolis as five-point favorite with total of 56.5. Enjoy the game.
Saturday Hoops Action
Just missed a winning day on Thursday as the ol’ half point hook clipped Ron on UCLA selection. With so many CBB games you would think there would be a ton of systems but the best I could find was a money line one on the hardwood. However, it is incredible 47-3 and the baggage is not that heavy, thus deserves a look. The Top Trend comes from the Big 12, while the Free play is from Sal on one of his heaviest wagers of the college basketball season. Good Luck
What I thought today- I watched the John Stewart and Bill O’Reilly interview uncut and complete. Besides the fact it was very entertaining, I came away thinking that all of us have become so conditioned to look at everything in black and white, that a few shades of gray really adds balance to our viewpoints.
On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners
Free Basketball System -1) Play On favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line like California, revenging a close loss vs opponent of three points or less, off a close loss by three points or less to a conference rival. Because the money line isn’t that heavy at -165, you have to consider a system that is 47-3, 94 percent.
Free Basketball Trend - 2) Iowa State is 1-16 ATS after two straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers over the last two seasons.
Free Basketball Pick -3) Sal of the LCC is 9-3 in college hoops this week and is pounding Georgetown.
Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right.
What I thought today- I watched the John Stewart and Bill O’Reilly interview uncut and complete. Besides the fact it was very entertaining, I came away thinking that all of us have become so conditioned to look at everything in black and white, that a few shades of gray really adds balance to our viewpoints.
On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners
Free Basketball System -1) Play On favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line like California, revenging a close loss vs opponent of three points or less, off a close loss by three points or less to a conference rival. Because the money line isn’t that heavy at -165, you have to consider a system that is 47-3, 94 percent.
Free Basketball Trend - 2) Iowa State is 1-16 ATS after two straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers over the last two seasons.
Free Basketball Pick -3) Sal of the LCC is 9-3 in college hoops this week and is pounding Georgetown.
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Saturday College Basketball Matchups
Of course the Super Bowl is coming, but let’s take a one day sabbatical before Sunday and sit down and get into college basketball. Of course televised action goes from morning to night and so does your wagering opportunities. Check information on the Big East, A-10, Big Ten, ACC, Mountain West and even a battle for first place in Conference USA, with Memphis not included. Tomorrow is an American institution, however Saturday is all about the orange (Clark Kellogg reference) and sharing the sugar (Steve Lavin reference), make it work for you.Villanova at Georgetown (-2, 151)12:00E ESPN
While the jury is still out on what kind of pro prospect Scottie Reynolds might be, the senior guard has proven to be an exceptional collegiate basketball player. You can count on one hand the number of times Reynolds has tried to force the action this season and his shooting percentage is at a career high, based on basketball IQ and what the opponent is offering. He’s also tougher than a $3 steak which is why Villanova (20-1, 15-5 ATS) is 10-2 ATS in Saturday road games the last three seasons.
It’s actually fairly remarkable Georgetown (16-5, 9-8 ATS) is as good as it is this season. The Hoyas has struck out more the Phillies Ryan Howard when turning to the bench for point production. The cupboard has been bare for Coach John Thompson III, placing a greater burden on his starters to lead the way. If Austin Freeman, Greg Monroe or Chris Wright has an off night (like Wright did in scoring eight points in South Florida loss), especially against the better teams, it is very much like a disconnected cell phone call, everything goes quiet.
Someone for the G-Town has to answer or they fall to 1-9 ATS February home games since 2008.
Georgetown is 1-6 and lamentable 0-7 ATS against Nova at home since 1997.
Xavier at Dayton (-3, 135.5) 12:00E ESPN2
The Musketeers (16-6, 14-7 ATS)were not supposed to be as formidable after three A-10 titles, 25 or more wins and two visits to Sweet Sixteen. New coach Chris Mack had to gain the trust of old and new players, however he couldn’t have counted on what guard Jamal Crawford would mean to Xavier, who sits atop the conference leaderboard at 8-1. The transfer not only became a YouTube sensation dunking on LeBron James this past summer, but he is the team’s leading scorer, on a club that brought back just enough veteran talent to keep them in A-10 contention this season. Xavier is 12-2 ATS playing teams with 60-80 percent win percentage since last year.
The team believed capable of unseating Xavier in 2010 was Dayton; however the Flyers have not been clutch at winning time, losing three conference contests by six total points. Dayton (15-6, 10-8 ATS) has been outscored by over 40 points this season in the final five minutes of regulation play, shooting around 35 percent (43% normally). Dayton’s strength also turns out to be one its weaknesses. The Flyers have six players averaging six or more points, but lack a go to scorer at crunch time. They are 6-2 ATS against teams with winning records.
Dayton is playing into revenge and is 5-1 SU and ATS as home favorite against Xavier.
Wake Forest at Virginia (-3.5, 134.5)12:00E ESPN Full Court
Coming into this year’s ACC campaign, one of the teams not presumed to compete for the conference crown was Virginia (14-6, 9-6 ATS). Yet past the quarter point of the league schedule, the Cavaliers are right in the mix. How could this be? It starts with new coach Tony Bennett stressing the little things- free throw shooting, assists to turnovers ratio and playing defense out to 25 feet. The older Virginia players have seen the value of this style and like W’s. The Cavs are 39-22 ATS at home vs. teams making 45 or percent of shots past the halfway point of season.
Wake Forest (15-5, 9-8 ATS) lost by 20 points at Duke and showed their resolve in knocking out North Carolina 82-69 at Chapel Hill in next outing. If senior Ishmael Smith can continue to put up impressive numbers, the Demon Deacons are going to be a fecund club the rest of the way. Al-Farouq Aminu’s game is ever-expanding and he’s unstoppable near the bucket. If freshmen C.J. Harris and Ari Stewart can be a touch more consistent shooting, they already know center Chas McFarland will do his job in the paint. Wake has to protect the ball, as they are 25-43 ATS in road games when they commit three to seven more turnovers than opponents.
Virginia is 7-3 and 6-4 ATS at Charlottesville against Demon Deacons.
Wisconsin at Michigan (+1, 116.5) 4:00E CBS
Not exactly Game of the Weekend material for the Super Bowl network, but what the heck, Big Ten basketball means eyeballs. Wisconsin’s margin of error without injured Jon Leuer is smaller than Verne Troyer (Mini-Me). After stern matchups with Purdue and Michigan State, the Badgers head the Ann Arbor to build on fine performance over the Spartans. Trevon Hughes has continued to produce, however sophomore Jordan Taylor and Keaton Nankivil has raised his level of play in Leuer’s absence and Wisky is 10-5 ATS as a road favorite or pick.
Too their credit, Michigan (11-11, 10-8 ATS) has been beating oddsmakers expectations since January with 8-2 spread mark, nonetheless they have failed to meet their own beliefs. The Wolverines thought they were NCAA tournament ready after last season, but have danced around .500 most of the season instead. More than anything Michigan players lacked the internal commitment to start the season and have given away apparent wins late in games. Ranking last in the Big Ten in rebounding, the Wolverines are 20-43 ATS historically when they grab four to nine fewer boards per game.
The Badgers (17-5, 12-8 ATS) have taken nine of last 10 meetings with 6-4 ATS mark.
BYU at UNLV (-1, 146.5) 4:00E VERSUS
Jimmer Fredette is back! After battling mononucleosis in late December, the junior guard has been lighting up Mountain West foes and is the leading reason why BYU (22-2, 12-9 ATS) has one the finest records in college basketball. The Cougars formula for success is simple; they lead the conference in field goal percentage offense and defense. This is a talented club who understands their roles and plays accordingly. BYU is 15-4 ATS in road games over the last two seasons and 8-0 ATS is February.
UNLV coaches and players understand any chance of winning the conference rests with winning this MWC contest. The Runnin’ Rebels (18-4, 14-6 ATS) have their deepest team since Lon Kruger arrived, however the loss of starting guard Derrick Jasper to injury will test that belief, especially for all he does. This signal’s Tre’Von Willis and Chace Stanback will have to play up a level and UNLV is 7-1 ATS facing teams outscoring their opponents by four or points a game this season.
BYU is 3-10 and 3-7 ATS in Sin City the last dozen years.
Michigan State at Illinois (+1.5, 126) 9:00E ESPN
Michigan State (19-4, 8-14 ATS) is in the featured spotlight for this ESPN prime time affair. Coach Tom Izzo must have a lucky rabbit’s foot or something, having won a couple of recent Big Ten road games by a single digit until being bounced by the Badgers 67-49 for their first conference loss. Actually Izzo’s lucky charm is junior Kalin Lucas. The point guard has put the dagger in twice with final seconds’ baskets and been the ring leader in finding teammates in quality comebacks. Lucas quote – “I just think at clutch time, I want to have the ball in my hands.” Unfortunately Lucas is game time decision with a sprained ankle. The Spartans are 8-2 ATS as a road favorite of six points or less or pick over the last three seasons.
The problem won’t go away by itself and coach Bruce Weber knows it. For Illinois (15-8, 7-13-1 ATS), there is a direct link to leadership and winning. When a Mike Davis, Mike Tisdale or Demetri McCamey assumes the role of leader in any game, the Illini have plenty of fight and either wins or are highly competitive. If this trio becomes a group of shrinking violets, Illinois is doomed for failure. Coach Webber is hoarse from preaching, togetherness, toughness and playing hard, the team just hasn’t taken it to heart and is 7-13-1 ATS this season.
The Spartans are 4-6 and 3-7 ATS at Champaign in last 10, but have won and covered previous two.
Tulsa at UTEP (-5, 133.5)10:00E ESPN2
Sole possession of first place in Conference USA is on the line in this late night affair. With Memphis not the dominant team, opportunities exist for others like Tulsa (18-4, 7-11-1 ATS) and UTEP (16-5, 7-10 ATS), who are both 7-1 in league action. The winner of the conference is not guaranteed a spot in the Big Dance; however they improve their case dramatically. The two studs for the Golden Hurricane are seniors Jerome Jordan and Ben Uzoh and they bailed them out in 73-69 win at Marshall Wednesday night, after trailing the majority of the contest. They will be needed again, however Tulsa is just 2-7-1 ATS on the road.
The Miners have won six straight after knocking off Houston 65-58. UTEP has five players averaging 10 or more points and former Louisville bad boy Derrick Caracter should have a terrific battle with Jordan in the paint. The Miners also have 6’11 Arnett Moultrie to work against the 7’0 Jordan. Both teams score in the 70’s and are above average defensively, thus no visible differences in what should a magical night in El Paso for coach Tony Barbee and his club, who has failed to cover their last six home games.
Tulsa has covered last eight meetings (6-2 SU), including previous five at the Don Haskins Center, walking away victorious three times.
Packing for three Thursday Winners
Picked up another winning day with 2-1 record, so let’s keep building this up. Have a 33-8 ATS system in college hoops relative to this month only. The Top Trend chases the worst bet in college basketball, can it continue? Ron of the Left Coast Connection has been fire-starter (Prodigy reference) and will have another Top Free Pick. Good Luck
What I thought today- I thought Human Target on Fox looked pretty fun, but wasn’t that impressed last night. Will give it one more shot next week. However, still dig Man vs. Food. Anybody else watch this and your comments.
On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners
Free Basketball System -1) Play On road underdogs like San Francisco of 3.5 to 9.5 points, off an upset win as an underdog of 10 or more, in February games. The system generates 80.5 percent winners with 33-8 ATS record the last 13 years.
Free Basketball Trend - 2) Tenn-Martin has more negative trends than my stock portfolio and is 0-10 ATS after playing four consecutive games as an underdog this season.
Free Basketball Pick -3) Ron continues to shine and is on 16-3 run in hoops and his next top pick will be UCLA.
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Is Pointspread for Super Bowl XLIV?
Any coach past or present will tell you the game of football is about two things, blocking and tackling. While that is absolutely true in its simplest form, Super Bowl XLIV is completely different from its past with the possible exception of just a handful of contests for the Lombardi Trophy. Start with the total of this Roman numeral confrontation. The total of 56.5 is the highest ever, surpassing the Giants and New England figure of 54 points two years ago. This number could well come down by game time this Sunday; nevertheless it stands a very good chance of being the largest total ever.Why would this be, the NFL rules are geared toward offenses to score points. The two best quarterbacks this season are facing off in the Super Bowl and each organization has drafted in a manner to assure their pigskin passers have the necessary weapons to maximize their abilities and put pressure on defenses. This season, Indianapolis has averaged 38 passes per game and New Orleans averaged 34 passes per contest. For those old enough to remember, Super Bowl XII had the unbeaten Miami Dolphins as surprisingly one-point underdogs to George Allen’s “Over the hill gang” Washington Redskins. In one of the duller Super Bowl’s, the Dolphins completed the still one and only undefeated season, winning 14-7. In the contest, Hall of Fame quarterback Bob Griese was 8 for 11 passing, for all of 88 yards. Figure Peyton Manning and Drew Brees to have the attempts and yardage surpassed that Griese threw for on that day sometime relatively early in the second quarter.
After the Colts solved the Jets defense in winning the AFC Championship, most educated oddsmakers were thinking Indianapolis as three-point favorite against the winner of the NFC contest. However, since New Orleans was dominated statistically in their matchup by Minnesota, most thought 3.5 or four points would draw relatively divided action. With roughly 15-20 percent of the dollars wagered on the side of the Super Bowl by this past Sunday, the vast majority of the action had been on Indy, moving them to -5.5 points , but the Dwight Freeney news shoved to number back down to -4.5 or 5. In breaking down the two teams, is the number accurate?
Peyton Manning vs New Orleans pass defense
On paper this looks like the biggest mismatch since Conan O’Brien taking on NBC. Manning has arguably been the best quarterback in football the last eight years, except when Tom Brady had a better New England club. The Colts have averaged 283 yards passing against teams that allowed 218, that’s almost a 30 percent difference vs. any defense they have taken on this year. Manning makes uncommon sight adjustments to blitzes and gets rid of the ball quickly. New Orleans on the other hand can be riddled by opposing teams via the pass. Take away games this season in which the Saints faced teams who preferred to run like Carolina, Detroit, Buffalo, Miami and the Jets, and the New Orleans secondary surrendered 277.6 yards in the 12 other contests or roughly what the Colts totaled all season. Granted, some the yardage allowed was after New Orleans had built big leads in several early games, but there were a number of late season contests in which they were also torched.
Nobody in football makes better in-game adjustments than Manning and his offensive coordinator Tom Moore and nobody this season did a better job in stopping opposing teams by forcing turnovers than the Saints. Defensive coordinator Greg Williams is on record as saying how they attacked Brett Favre is similar to how they want to get after Manning. The Jets had Darrelle Revis to at least take away Reggie Wayne and they did a good job in limiting Dallas Clark. It does not appear Manning will face those same obstacles against Saints secondary.
Spread Differential – Indianapolis -7
Drew Brees vs Indianapolis pass defense
Brees might not have All-Pro type receivers like Manning has in Wayne and Clark; however he has a stable full any Kentucky thoroughbred barn would be proud of. No team in professional football had a more diverse passing attack than New Orleans. The Saints had seven different players catch 35 balls or more during the regular season. Coach Sean Payton has set up offense very much like a basketball team that has exceptional depth and has the skill to score points. Only Manning has the ability to scan the field as quickly to find an open receiver as Brees, who also has keen understanding of taking what the offense gives as well as wanting to dictate the tempo to keep the defense guessing. The Colts are better equipped to limit or contain the New Orleans passing game. Bookend defensive ends Freeney and Robert Mathis can bring a heap of trouble off the edges. Freeney in particular is going to demand a double team, unless his troubled ankle proves otherwise, as normal backup tackle Jermon Bushrod is not equipped to make this a solo project. Mathis’ edge over right tackle Jon Stinchcomb isn’t as definitive; just the same the Colts DE is the better player. Antoine Beathea is an emerging star at safety for the Colts, with the rest of the secondary somewhat dependant on what happens up front.
Spread Differential – New Orleans -3
Indianapolis running game vs. New Orleans front seven
For two teams in the Super Bowl, this is one area that is about as unusual as you will find. The Colts running game is reminiscent of Bill Walsh’s and Joe Montana’s first winning Super Bowl team from the 1982 season. The 49ers were a pure passing team and ran the ball just to give the defense something to preoccupy from time to time. The Indianapolis front office had not been impressed with Joseph Addai since they won the Super Bowl in 2006 season and drafted Donald Brown from Connecticut. Addai doesn’t hit the edges as well on the stretch plays, working better between the B-gaps and making cuts. Indy posts a laughable 3.5 yards per carry against teams that permitted 4.1. The offense line seldom gets a chance to go out and drive block, however does appear less potent in this aspect of the game from the Super Bowl team from three years ago. Beyond Sedrick Ellis, the Saints defense front absorbs more punishment than it creates. New Orleans gives up 4.6 yards per carry, since their linebackers lack extensive speed to quickly fill gaps. It would seem Indianapolis could do business here, but has shown no inclination to commit to the run, rushing over 100 yards twice on last 12 contests. Expect the Colts to be satisfied carrying the ball their usual 23 times and leave it to their MVP to close the deal.
Spread Differential – Even
New Orleans running game vs Indianapolis front seven
Besides turnovers, if the Who Dats are going to upset the Colts, this is where it has to come from. Guards Carl Nicks, Jahri Evans and center Jonathan Goodwin must have special day opening up holes for Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush. Saints coach Payton needs to show restraint here and get physical upfront with the Colts. Gouging the Indianapolis defense for four to five yards a pop opens up tight end Jeremy Shockey and slot receiver Robert Meacham in the passing game. Payton may try the screen game, however few have had successful against linebackers Clint Session, Gary Brackett and safety Beathea, who can all run and are sure tacklers. Instead, as part of the running game, they should include trips (three receivers) to the short side of the field, with Bush standing behind them and sending him into motion to wide side of the field, hopefully drawing linebacker. This gets Bush in the open field for essentially a screen pass or comeback slant route underneath with blockers, more or less a run play in Saints offense.
Spread Differential – New Orleans -1
Special Teams
Reggie Bush gives the Saints a home run hitter in returning punts, however the way to stop him is what Minnesota did, have the punter sacrifice a few yards to increase kick coverage and get right in his grill upon the catch. Indianapolis continues to spend little time in this area and is strictly run of the mill. Where the Colts have edge is at place-kicker. Matt Stover came in when Adam Vinateri was injured. The 42-year old Stover will be the oldest player ever participate in the Super Bowl and has 20 years experience, including being the Ravens kicker during the 2001 Super Bowl campaign. Stover’s range is limited to about 45-yards, especially outdoors and has made 80 percent (20 of 25) of field goals in his postseason career. Kicker Garrett Hartley is young enough (23) to conceivably be Stover’s son. Hartley has made 24 of 26 field goals in his two years, but the pressure is all together different on the game’s biggest stage. Plus, Hartley has kicked in a dome the last two seasons and realistically is untested, though his game winner over Minnesota was impressive.
Spread Differential – Indianapolis -1
Coaching
It would seem these two coaches couldn’t be any more different with each facing unprecedented scrutiny for the first time. Jim Caldwell, to the chagrin of his team gave up 14-0 season and a chance for perfection to be in this position and it worked. Caldwell’s strength is in his beliefs and defensive. He altered the mechanics of the Colts defense, still playing a lot of Cover 2, but blitzed twice as much as his predecessor Tony Dungy. With young players at corner due to injury, he followed the Colts’ ideologies of players are expected to step up and perform. Low key leader who trusts assistants and his team.
Sean Payton’s arrival into the NFL showed a fertile offensive mind who couldn’t devise enough trick plays and use them quickly enough. Like many great offensive teams, the coach and quarterback become one on various levels and Payton trusted Brees from the beginning. Payton took some lumps the last couple of seasons, which has brought about a new found maturity, giving his offense a chance to succeed on almost every play and toned down the risk taking. As opposed to Caldwell, he embraced the notion of a perfect season when his team was 13-0. He makes no bones about playing to his strength (offense) and turned the defense over this season to Gregg Williams. His biggest task this game is not letting his emotions affect his play calling.
Spread Differential -None
Intangibles
There have been a number of teams that have won their first Super Bowl without having been involved in this maniacal environment, but having the experience is certainly a plus. Teams’ playing in this contest for the first time against experienced foe are desultory 6-11 ATS. Though players say they understand, sometimes its months later in reflection they realize they were satisfied to make the Big Game as opposed to truly desiring to win it. Payton and Brees have the heart of an assassin, thus their preparation and desire is predicated on going home champions. The city of New Orleans, with all that has happened once Hurricane Katrina made land, feels like it playing with house money and welcomes the idea of their football team playing for the city’s first championship, instead of craving it. The team had better listen to their coach and field general.
Though it seems Manning has been around forever, it’s still kind of hard to believe he’s 33 years old and is facing the possibility of having diminishing skills. He admits to sometimes barely getting out to make handoff on stretch plays and unlike Brett Favre, doesn’t spend much time thinking about his place in history in the NFL, he’s more consumed with winning and letting others determine where he belongs.
The Indianapolis team that was at this same location in 2007 was probably the worst of the four previous (2003-06) Colts playoff teams. That club found a hot rookie running back in Addai and the offensive line got into a bull-dozing mode and they plowed their way to championship. That experience gives the Colts an edge knowing what to expect and what level of performance is necessary. Teams favored by three to six points in this truly American game are 8-2 ATS.
Because the New Orleans defense is decidedly inferior, they have to continue to force turnovers. The oddsmakers are telling us Indy is your winner 31-25, based on spread and total. The Saints need to force no less than three turnovers and convert those into a minimum of 14 points, since the offense would be expected to generate 14 to 17 points on their own.
With Manning and Brees rightfully garnering the lion’s share of attention, four Colts youngsters could have direct impact on outcome. Receivers Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie played like seasoned vets against the blitzing Jets, as each was primary target thanks to Rex Ryan’s defensive scheme and they passed the test amazingly well. The New Orleans secondary will have far different coverages, yet their ability to “come thru” will be no less important.
Corners Jerraud Powers and Jacob Lacey have given Colts fans a few anxious moments on occasion, but have played beyond reasonable expectations. They can study film from morning till night, but undoubtedly they will be faced with things they haven’t seen before against the Saints and every New Orleans receiver is big with good speed. If they think their quarterback gets rid of the ball in a hurry, wait until they see Brees. Their play under pressure will define how many points the Saints total.
Spread Differential –Indianapolis -3
Bottom Line - Having the best quarterback in the game who doesn’t make many mistakes, a better defense and better than half the roster having Super Bowl experience leads to figure below.
Cumulative Spread Differential – Indianapolis -7
Two NBA betting choices tonight
It happens to most quality teams, nonetheless Miami and San Antonio drew the short straws having to play nationally televised cable games on the road after playing the night before away from home. The Heat were outscored by five points in the final 12 minutes at Boston, which proved to be the losing margin for them in 107-102 defeat. The Spurs opened their annual Rodeo Trip with a 115-113 thriller in Sacramento. Both have little time to recoup at noted difficult places to win.Wade vs James –Round 3
Miami (24-25 SU & ATS) has lost first two games this season to Cleveland, both at home and travels to Quicken Loans Arena for the first time this campaign. The Cavaliers (39-11, 26-23-1 ATS) have the superior team as their records prove, but the matchup, though not head to head, of Dwyane Wade and LeBron James brings out the best of both players and teams. In the prior contests, each player has scored over 30 points, with Wade holding a slight edge 68 to 66 in total points scored.
Not much consolation for Wade, having lost both times and the last meeting was particularly painful, as D-Wade missed two critical free throws in the final minute and James made steal and went for winning basket with 4.1 seconds left. In those few moments, both players took a serious fall, with James attempting to dunk for the win and Wade preventing it with foul. As expected, James coolly made both charity tosses and the Cavs escaped 92-91 as one-point underdogs.
No such low number tonight from Bookmaker.com, with Cleveland a decided favorite at 9.5-points and total of 187.5. Miami is 5-2 off a straight up loss and are in the midst of playing eight of nine away from home. “This is a tough road trip we are on. We have to focus game to game,” said Wade last night. The Heat are 2-7 and 3-6 ATS playing without rest this season, losing by unseemly 12 points per game.
If Miami is starting to feel the heat of playing a number of games away from home, Cleveland is just scorching. The Cavaliers have won nine in a row and has covered five straight spreads, three by double digits. Since slipping past Miami four games ago, the Cavs average margin of victory has been 19 per game. Cleveland is 38-18-1 ATS off a win by double digits and has covered last five outings with a day of rest. This is the opener on TNT starting at 8:00 Eastern, with Cleveland 8-1 and 6-3 ATS in previous nine get-togethers.
Deep breath and move on
The San Antonio Spurs have not been of recent vintage this season, with 28-19 record (23-23-1 ATS), despite having played 29 home games, the most in the NBA. With the rodeo in San Antonio, that means the Spurs head out of town and the schedule starts to balance itself. San Antonio played their first of eight consecutive road games in Sac-Town last night and escaped with two-point victory, thanks to the exploits of backup point guard George Hill. The second year player has taken over for an injured Tony Parker, scoring 23 points and dishing out a career high nine assists, drawing the praise of his head coach.
“George is probably the most improved player in the whole league,” Spurs coach Gregg Popovich said. “From his rookie year last year to this year he’s starting to get confident and played well at both ends of the floor. He’s going to be a really fine player for us.” The Spurs will need similar performance or better at Portland (29-22, 28-22-1 ATS) tonight since they are 4-9 ATS as visitors against teams with winning home record.
The Trailblazers have been dealing with injury issues of their own, with Greg Oden again done for the season and Brandon Roy having missed eight straight contests with strained right hamstring. Portland is 3-5 (4-4 ATS) during this stretch without Roy; however his replacement Jerryd Bayless has been better than adequate averaging 14.6 PPG and shooting nearly 50 percent. The Blazers have not been their usual dominant selves at the Rose Garden with 17-9 record and .500 against the spread. After being whipped by Utah 118-105 Wednesday, Portland is 6-1 ATS of late off a SU loss and 6-0 ATS after surrendering 100 or more points.
The Blazers have won three of last four at home against San Antonio, beating the oddsmakers number each time. The point spread has Tim Duncan’s club opening as two-point favorites, which does not correlate to rest for each team. The Spurs are 3-5 SU and ATS with zero days off, while Portland is 8-3 SU and ATS in exact same situation and 12-3 ATS dating back to last season. The tipoff will be at approximately 10:35 Eastern.
Disparity rules between NBA Conferences
For a number of years now the Western Conference has been superior to the East. This is easily shown by the fact Eastern Conference has six teams with winning records (one is one game over .500) and the West has just four teams with losing records among its 15 members.One aspect this year besides the dominance once again, the wagering aspect comes into play more than one might think. The West holds a 160-122 (56.7) edge in head to head competition against those from the other conference. It would make sense the West would also be grabbing most of the money when these teams meet, however their stranglehold ends up being a little tighter than traditional numbers. The West is 150-126-6 ATS, 54.3 percent, just over two percent off the SU winning percentage.
As to be expected there are winners and losers in each conference, thus let’s take a look at who is profiting and who is not on either side of the Mississippi River.
The two West squads that have taken everyone aback are up and comers Oklahoma City and Memphis. Unquestionably these are two young and talented teams who could change the dynamics of the Western Conference if they can keep their best players while adding more quality to their rosters in the seasons to come. Each has grown this season primarily beating up the East. The Thunder is 16-6 SU and ATS, while the Grizzlies are 9-6 and 10-5 ATS.
Oklahoma City in particular has been impressive in winning by 6.6 points per contest.
The Los Angeles Lakers have enjoyed the most success at 17-3, but most nights are fighting the oddsmakers for their supporters and are a fair 10-8-2 ATS. The other club that plays in the Staples Center is actually a better bet and has shown real signs of improvement despite lacking players they thought they could count on like No. 1 pick Blake Griffin and Kareem Rush, both injured all or most of the season. The Clippers are 11-8 and 12-6-1 ATS.
A number of other teams have winning records, however are not at least to this point an overwhelming wager. Denver has 13-6 (11-8 ATS) record, San Antonio 13-5 (10-8 ATS), Utah 13-6 (11-8 ATS) and Dallas is 14-5 with only 9-10 spread mark.
The biggest disappointments out West have been Houston at 5-9 ATS with six wins and Sacramento at 6-13 SU and ATS when they face teams from at least two zones away. Golden State may be 6-13, but their style of play leaves Eastern teams confounded and the Warriors are 11-7-1 ATS.
Not every East team is horrible versus the West, it just seems that way. Six Eastern teams have winning records against their Western counterparts; however a couple of those are a loss or two from being .500 or less straight up. For those laying down the cash, Atlanta is the best at 12-7 ATS with 13-6 record. The Hawks are where Oklahoma City and Memphis envision themselves in a year or two or possibly sooner, a good team that has young veteran talent which still has an upside.
Cleveland is the best of the bunch at 18-5, handing the Lakers two of their three Eastern defeats. Nonetheless, like L.A., too often, too many points to overcome with 13-10-1 ATS mark. Boston has a representative 10-6 record, but being a public team and injury-plagued are crestfallen 4-11-1 ATS.
The lousy teams in the East are rotten pretty much against whomever they play. Here are their crummy numbers.
Philadelphia 7-14, 9-12 ATS
Washington 4-14, 7-10-1 ATS
Detroit 4-15, 7-12 ATS
Indiana 4-14, 6-12 ATS
You are probably wondering about New Jersey, because they have been so insufferable, thought the Nets deserved special mention at 1-19 and 5-15 ATS. Their Atlantic Division partners New York, are a sleepy 6-11 vs. the West, yet are about even money bet at 9-8 ATS.
In conclusion, when East meets West, the teams in the Central and Eastern Time zones consistently come up short and are poor wagers.
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