A Look ahead in Rearview Mirror in Betting Football

After a sterling start of 25-16 ATS the opening week, favorites took it on the chin in Week 2 in college football. It wasn’t a disaster; however favorites were 19-23-1 against the spread. Part of the reason for this shift was home underdogs after a 3-6 start, came back to bite with 7-5 ATS record overall. Kudos to oddsmakers on the Totals, with 42-42 record for the first two weeks.

In the NFL, favorites were a solid 10-6 ATS in the opening weekend with the Under being the correct choice most often with 9-7 record. It was interesting to note, the value of Week 1 was in the middle numbers. Home favorites of a touchdown or more were 2-3 ATS and home dogs were 3-4 ATS. Home favorites of less than five points achieved perfection with 4-0 ATS mark.

Do’s

Penn State gave another very good performance, blasting Oregon State in 45-14, in a contest for all intents and purposes was over at halftime. The Nittany Lions ran the ball down their throats for 239 yards and played with a purpose against the Beavers, who were not sharp. Penn State is almost a four touchdown favorite at Syracuse and can name the final score. First real test of any sort is hosting Illinois in Big 10 opener on September 27.

Georgia Tech is shaping up as Play On team with upset win at Boston College 19-16 as 6.5-point underdogs. The Yellow Jackets still commit too many fumbles in learning new coach Paul Johnson’s offense, yet by the fourth quarter at B.C., the efficiency was much better and the pounding of running the offense was wearing down the Eagles. Georgia Tech’s defense was better than expected and with ACC not appearing especially strong, the Jackets will have opportunities to improve on 16-7 ATS record as ACC road dog.

What is most impressive about East Carolina is the physical nature of which they play. The Pirates were the better team against Virginia Tech and West Virginia on both days. Skip Holtz’s club beats on opponents, giving no quarter and whipping teams known for using brute force to win games. Though the schedule doesn’t look imposing by BCS standards, East Carolina still has six road games left on the docket and has been exposed like the internet in Bill Curtis commercials. No more lurking in the shadows for ECU, opposing teams have a new target to aim for. Hard not to ride coach who is 27-11 ATS, as Holtz and the Pirates head to Tulane this week in C-USA opener.

Don’ts

If this is new and improved Notre Dame, could be another long season in South Bend. The supposedly bigger, stronger and improved Irish offensive line saw backs average three yards a carry against San Diego State, who allowed over five yards a carry the previous week to powerhouse (?) Cal- Poly. The Notre Dame new blitzing schemes had one problem; they kept running into blockers, instead of finding open lanes to get to quarterback. At least Jimmy Clausen looked more like the hyped prospect Notre Dame was looking for, with several nice passes. The Irish are 5-11 as home favorites under Charley Weis and remain on fade alert especially when favored by 10 or more points.

South Carolina might have a tremendous defense, nonetheless, the offense and special (misnomer) teams are still an issue. Vanderbilt had no business being in the game with the Gamecocks, yet they hung around and Steve Spurrier’s squad let the Commodores into the game and they seized the opportunity in pulling upset as home dog. One would presume South Carolina shoots for big effort this week at home against Georgia, yet are 3-6 ATS as home pooch under Spurrier and the Bulldogs are 15-10 ATS on the SEC road. It takes intestinal fortitude to back Gamecocks this week.

What the “Freidgen” is going on in College Park, MD? Maryland had to fight for their collective lives to hold off Delaware at home 14-7 and lost at Middle Tennessee State 24-14 as better than two touchdown favorites! Coming off three losing seasons in last four years, it looks like coach Ralph Friedgen has been eating into the recruiting budget, with sparse talent available. In comes 23rd ranked California who might be better than presumed. The Terps are 3-6 ATS catching points at home against ranked opponents.

NFL Betting Thoughts

If any of us were a tackling dummy, the best place to have a job would be working for the Detroit Lions, who missed more tackles against Atlanta than the number of games Raiders owner Al Davis has watched in person. Detroit has a chance for renewal against division rival Green Bay on short week.

Philadelphia was crisp against receding Rams, setting up dandy matchup next Monday against Dallas, where the Eagles are 9-3 ATS.

A vast amount of handicappers and knowledgeable sports bettors were on Cincinnati last week at Baltimore, starting a rookie quarterback and running back. The Bengals defense could never stop the Ravens when they needed to and the offense was pathetic. This point’s to the value of preseason. While the games mean nothing, we saw with Cincy, Seattle, San Diego and Indianapolis not being close to ready offensively. You still need time with game action to put continuity together for offense.

Most impressed by Dallas, Carolina, Philadelphia and Denver. In each case, the game plans and execution was spectacular.


Media and other thoughts – Former Ravens coach Brian Billick had a quality debut in the booth as analyst. He was informative, made salient points and was definitely a coach in the booth. For those that prefer information to be delved out above the norm, Billick was a breath of fresh air. No doubt the network will tell him to dumb it down.

I’m only going to say this once this football season, but Troy Aikman drives me crazy. The former Cowboy quarterback does good work as an announcer, yet is a hack with the English language. Aikman ends the majority of words ending with ‘ing’ with his version of in’. (Example – The Cowboys are really tacklin’ well today.) I suggest you play along and have a large pad of paper and make a scratch mark for every time Aikman ends a word with in’. He does this more times than the number of Motel 6 Inns there are across the Lower 48. In the movie Scarface, if memory serves, somebody told me the F-Bomb was used 126 times. Aikman should have that before the end of the third quarter.

If you watched Florida and Miami last Saturday, you may have noticed the Gators scored 17 points in the last quarter to win. What caught my eye was the urgency of which Florida was trying to score with a VERY comfortable 23-3 lead late in the fourth quarter. By all appearances the Gators were desperately trying to score a touchdown and did, though it was called back for a penalty. You don’t suppose Urban Meyer had heard earlier in the week that Florida alums had the Gators in the -22 to -24 range do you? No, that would never happen. (Wink, wink)