In the NFL, we have seen more Over’s to date with 28-18-1 record. The explanation is rather simple why these numbers have gone this way to date. Atlanta and San Francisco are in the top 10 in the NFL in scoring and the Broncos, Texans and Chargers defense have all been below expectations, leading to more numbers going Over this September. Home underdogs continue to suffer after three weeks with 3-8 ATS record.You can’t help but be impressed by the numbers those setting the lines come up with. In college football, for the season, when looking at the Totals of all games played, the numbers read 88-82-3 Under on the year. Their ability to devise numbers that split action is incredible. Now it is true, how the money is dispersed varies widely and those taking bets could be up or down, it’s just the matter of how they arrive at the numbers to be so accurate. After the favorites started 25-16 ATS in week one, since then they are 62-66-4 against the numbers.
Do’s
When Nick Saban left the NFL to return to college coaching, he preached patience in trying to restore Alabama to greatness. In just his second season in Tuscaloosa, Saban has this program already in the Top 10 and will have a legitimate shot at winning the SEC West. Already they’ve dismantled Clemson, did away with Arkansas faster than Bobby Petrino leaving the NFL, in a place where they have often struggled. Starting this week, the Tide is at Georgia and still has to make trips to Tennessee and LSU, thus anointing Alabama as the chosen team might be getting ahead of schedule. Nonetheless, if I’m Auburn or LSU, I would make sure I win the SEC West this season, as the near future doesn’t appear nearly as encouraging to do so.
There are football factories and than there is Vanderbilt. For years, this university has billed itself, and rightfully so, the Harvard of the South for their academic standards. Football, thou important from just being associated with the SEC, is not an end all to be all on the Nashville campus. Having a representative program, a winning record now and again, are all worthy goals. The Commodores have not been to a bowl game since 1982 and were poised to do so last year sitting at 5-3, only to lose last four games of the season. With the fewest number of returning players (9) in the SEC, most believed a return to 3-9 or 4-8 was inevitable. Yet, like the U.S.A. Ryder Cup team, coach Bobby Johnson got the troops to believe and they stand at 4-0 SU and ATS, with three outright underdog upsets. With a bye week before hosting Auburn, who will be off LSU and Tennessee, the bowl light at the end of the tunnel is burning brightly for Vandy.
The Mountain West Conference has as many teams in the Top 25 as the ACC and the Big East combined. BYU was presumed to be a real contender in the conference, with explosive offense led by quarterback Max Hall. This has proven to be true, being in the Top 15 in the country in scoring and total offense. Nonetheless, the defense is what grabs your attention as autumn begins, with consecutive shutouts. Utah brought back a truckload of talent and remains unbeaten and will have national audience to show what they have on Thursday Oct. 9 versus an average Oregon State club. We talked about TCU and we will learn more about them this week playing #2 Oklahoma in Norman.
Don’ts
So much for program revitalizations at Notre Dame and Florida State. The Irish went thru the ringer, in this case, Javon Ringer of Michigan State, who ran the ball an amazing 39 times for 201 yards. Remember the new and improved offensive live Notre Dame was supposed to have, having added experience and strength. Does 112th in rushing and 108th in total offense, really sound that much different than last year’s disaster? Florida State chewed up a couple of cream puffs and was supposedly ready to make amends against Wake Forest who embarrassed them 30-0 two years ago in Tallahassee. After seven turnovers, the Seminoles look as disorganized as ever. The wagering money will come much easier betting against these two former legendary football programs, than with them.
How does third place in the Big Ten sound? If you’re Northwestern or Minnesota, they would take that position right now and send “thank you” notes later. But Ohio State! The Ohio U game was written off as look-ahead for USC. The Buckeyes were bedazzled by the Trojans and never threatened covering against Troy at Columbus, winning 28-10 as three-touchdown favorites. Ohio State might get their act together in the coming weeks in Big 10 play, however it is impossible to discount three crummy performances in a row. By the eyeball test, Penn State and Wisconsin look better. Ohio State will play both in October, with questions answered about how good this Jim Tressel team really is.
NFL Betting Thoughts
Three home favorites were favored by 10 or more points by game time and two were lucky to survive, with the other losing for the first time in awhile. All the rage in the NFL is this is a quarterback’s league. For the most part, this is fairly accurate, because if a team has a bad signal caller, it is very difficult to win. What we learned in Miami’s upset of New England; maybe the Patriots defense won’t be able to carry the offense. The Dolphins Ronnie Brown ran unscathed, through, around and past New England defenders like statues. The older yet presumably wiser Patriots defenders were helpless and with no Tom Brady to bail them out, the outcome was decided early. Peyton Manning did this for a good part of his early career and might have to do it again this season. A quarterback with enough weapons can manufacture enough points and possess the ball to help the defense. When he is removed, a weaker defense can be exposed.
Though not given the same importance as Hurricane Katrina, Hurricane Ike has left its mark on the Houston Texans. Many quotes throughout the past week gave a strong impression, many of the players were still thinking about what happened to their homes and would not be ready to play football. It was evident; focus was an issue against Tennessee, in 31-12 loss. With hope brimming after first .500 season a year ago, Houston will be playing third consecutive road game this week at Jacksonville, before heading home for what will now be four straight home games. The Texans will have to go old school in playing last 15 games without a bye week.
Does coaching matter, you bet. Though it didn’t matter in the outcome of spread wager, underdog money line players were affected. Lane Kiffin of Oakland is a dead man walking; ready to be fired at any moment, if he would agree to quick financial settlement for crazed old man Al Davis, who has ruined this franchise believing he is the same as was 20 years ago. Still you have to question Kiffin’s judgment in not calling a timeout in the final minute, with his team leading 23-21. The chances of Rian Lindell missing a 38-yard field goal were small, yet why not freeze him? Or what about a kickoff return or Hail Mary pass after the made kick? We see it happen all the time. The chances of either are small, but as Jim Carrey said in the movie Dumb and Dumber, “…so I still gotta a chance.”
Media and other thoughts –This is like shooting fish in a barrel, but Bob Griese said this in describing replay. “I’m not sure there is enough visual “everdence” to over rule the call.” Instead of correcting himself, a few awkward seconds went by before partner Paul Maguire chimed in, “Easy for you to say!” It was classic.
ESPN’s Jesse Palmer does a very solid job both on Thursday night games and Saturday’s wherever he shows up. For football types that want real information, he does a great job with the X’s and O’s.
It was rather obvious the Dallas Cowboys are a few rungs up the ladder ahead of the Green Bay Packers on Sunday. I spoke to several people that were at the game and all saw the same thing, the Packers defense is a well-deserved 27th in total defense, after giving up lots of yards to both Minnesota and Detroit in previous games. It was also shown despite the pleasant surprise Aaron Rodgers has been, he looked much better when matched up against Vikings and Lions quarterbacks than Tony Romo. Right today the Packers are the fourth or fifth best team in the NFC.
It often takes time to learn how to win, especially if a team is not used to doing so. Over the weekend North Carolina, went from a Pick to favorite against Virginia Tech, playing at Chapel Hill. The Tar Heels are improving under Butch Davis, but not there yet. After outplaying the ordinary Hokies the first two/thirds of the game, they made mistakes on offense and defense and eventually lost the game 20-17. It takes time to erode those old feelings of losing. Florida State and Tennessee were teams in similar situations, with a different angle. These outstanding programs in recent years still win, just not with the regularity of previous years. In big game situations, versus more confident opponents, they find ways to screw-up.
When Nick Saban left the NFL to return to college coaching, he preached patience in trying to restore Alabama to greatness. In just his second season in Tuscaloosa, Saban has this program already in the Top 10 and will have a legitimate shot at winning the SEC West. Already they’ve dismantled Clemson, did away with Arkansas faster than Bobby Petrino leaving the NFL, in a place where they have often struggled. Starting this week, the Tide is at Georgia and still has to make trips to Tennessee and LSU, thus anointing Alabama as the chosen team might be getting ahead of schedule. Nonetheless, if I’m Auburn or LSU, I would make sure I win the SEC West this season, as the near future doesn’t appear nearly as encouraging to do so.
There are football factories and than there is Vanderbilt. For years, this university has billed itself, and rightfully so, the Harvard of the South for their academic standards. Football, thou important from just being associated with the SEC, is not an end all to be all on the Nashville campus. Having a representative program, a winning record now and again, are all worthy goals. The Commodores have not been to a bowl game since 1982 and were poised to do so last year sitting at 5-3, only to lose last four games of the season. With the fewest number of returning players (9) in the SEC, most believed a return to 3-9 or 4-8 was inevitable. Yet, like the U.S.A. Ryder Cup team, coach Bobby Johnson got the troops to believe and they stand at 4-0 SU and ATS, with three outright underdog upsets. With a bye week before hosting Auburn, who will be off LSU and Tennessee, the bowl light at the end of the tunnel is burning brightly for Vandy.
The Mountain West Conference has as many teams in the Top 25 as the ACC and the Big East combined. BYU was presumed to be a real contender in the conference, with explosive offense led by quarterback Max Hall. This has proven to be true, being in the Top 15 in the country in scoring and total offense. Nonetheless, the defense is what grabs your attention as autumn begins, with consecutive shutouts. Utah brought back a truckload of talent and remains unbeaten and will have national audience to show what they have on Thursday Oct. 9 versus an average Oregon State club. We talked about TCU and we will learn more about them this week playing #2 Oklahoma in Norman.
Don’ts
So much for program revitalizations at Notre Dame and Florida State. The Irish went thru the ringer, in this case, Javon Ringer of Michigan State, who ran the ball an amazing 39 times for 201 yards. Remember the new and improved offensive live Notre Dame was supposed to have, having added experience and strength. Does 112th in rushing and 108th in total offense, really sound that much different than last year’s disaster? Florida State chewed up a couple of cream puffs and was supposedly ready to make amends against Wake Forest who embarrassed them 30-0 two years ago in Tallahassee. After seven turnovers, the Seminoles look as disorganized as ever. The wagering money will come much easier betting against these two former legendary football programs, than with them.
How does third place in the Big Ten sound? If you’re Northwestern or Minnesota, they would take that position right now and send “thank you” notes later. But Ohio State! The Ohio U game was written off as look-ahead for USC. The Buckeyes were bedazzled by the Trojans and never threatened covering against Troy at Columbus, winning 28-10 as three-touchdown favorites. Ohio State might get their act together in the coming weeks in Big 10 play, however it is impossible to discount three crummy performances in a row. By the eyeball test, Penn State and Wisconsin look better. Ohio State will play both in October, with questions answered about how good this Jim Tressel team really is.
NFL Betting Thoughts
Three home favorites were favored by 10 or more points by game time and two were lucky to survive, with the other losing for the first time in awhile. All the rage in the NFL is this is a quarterback’s league. For the most part, this is fairly accurate, because if a team has a bad signal caller, it is very difficult to win. What we learned in Miami’s upset of New England; maybe the Patriots defense won’t be able to carry the offense. The Dolphins Ronnie Brown ran unscathed, through, around and past New England defenders like statues. The older yet presumably wiser Patriots defenders were helpless and with no Tom Brady to bail them out, the outcome was decided early. Peyton Manning did this for a good part of his early career and might have to do it again this season. A quarterback with enough weapons can manufacture enough points and possess the ball to help the defense. When he is removed, a weaker defense can be exposed.
Though not given the same importance as Hurricane Katrina, Hurricane Ike has left its mark on the Houston Texans. Many quotes throughout the past week gave a strong impression, many of the players were still thinking about what happened to their homes and would not be ready to play football. It was evident; focus was an issue against Tennessee, in 31-12 loss. With hope brimming after first .500 season a year ago, Houston will be playing third consecutive road game this week at Jacksonville, before heading home for what will now be four straight home games. The Texans will have to go old school in playing last 15 games without a bye week.
Does coaching matter, you bet. Though it didn’t matter in the outcome of spread wager, underdog money line players were affected. Lane Kiffin of Oakland is a dead man walking; ready to be fired at any moment, if he would agree to quick financial settlement for crazed old man Al Davis, who has ruined this franchise believing he is the same as was 20 years ago. Still you have to question Kiffin’s judgment in not calling a timeout in the final minute, with his team leading 23-21. The chances of Rian Lindell missing a 38-yard field goal were small, yet why not freeze him? Or what about a kickoff return or Hail Mary pass after the made kick? We see it happen all the time. The chances of either are small, but as Jim Carrey said in the movie Dumb and Dumber, “…so I still gotta a chance.”
Media and other thoughts –This is like shooting fish in a barrel, but Bob Griese said this in describing replay. “I’m not sure there is enough visual “everdence” to over rule the call.” Instead of correcting himself, a few awkward seconds went by before partner Paul Maguire chimed in, “Easy for you to say!” It was classic.
ESPN’s Jesse Palmer does a very solid job both on Thursday night games and Saturday’s wherever he shows up. For football types that want real information, he does a great job with the X’s and O’s.
It was rather obvious the Dallas Cowboys are a few rungs up the ladder ahead of the Green Bay Packers on Sunday. I spoke to several people that were at the game and all saw the same thing, the Packers defense is a well-deserved 27th in total defense, after giving up lots of yards to both Minnesota and Detroit in previous games. It was also shown despite the pleasant surprise Aaron Rodgers has been, he looked much better when matched up against Vikings and Lions quarterbacks than Tony Romo. Right today the Packers are the fourth or fifth best team in the NFC.
It often takes time to learn how to win, especially if a team is not used to doing so. Over the weekend North Carolina, went from a Pick to favorite against Virginia Tech, playing at Chapel Hill. The Tar Heels are improving under Butch Davis, but not there yet. After outplaying the ordinary Hokies the first two/thirds of the game, they made mistakes on offense and defense and eventually lost the game 20-17. It takes time to erode those old feelings of losing. Florida State and Tennessee were teams in similar situations, with a different angle. These outstanding programs in recent years still win, just not with the regularity of previous years. In big game situations, versus more confident opponents, they find ways to screw-up.
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